저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 주식은 1년 말 랠리가 기대되며 장기 실질자산으로서 채권보다 인플레이션 헤지에 유리하다는 입장. [밸류에이션] 내년 이익 대비 S&P500 약 17배, 기술주 제외 시 14~15배, 소형주 약 11배로 낮은 수준이라고 주장. [금리 상승 원인] 채권 금리 상승은 연준뿐 아니라 예상보다 빠른 성장 때문이며, AI 기대와 3분기 실적이 강할 것으로 봄. [채권 vs 주식] 채권은 지정학·금융위기 헤지에는 좋지만 인플레이션 헤지로는 나쁘다고 평가. 40년간 인플레이션이 낮아 잊혔다가 팬데믹 후 재부각됨. 주식과 부동산은 실물자산으로 인플레이션에 강함. [인플레이션 전망] 현재는 인플레이션이 하락 중이나, 재정적자 등으로 향후 10~20년 내 또 다른 인플레 국면이 올 수 있다고 봄. [시간 지평] 10년 이상 장기 포트폴리오 기준으로 주식 보유를 주장. 단기 침체 대응 타이밍 게임은 어렵다고 봄. [경기침체 전망] 소프트랜딩 확률은 높아졌으나, 침체 시 주가가 과하게 빠지는 만큼 좋은 매수 기회라고 봄. 200년간 모든 침체에서 회복해왔다는 근거 제시. [리스크] 채권금리 상승이 주식에 부담이 될 수 있다는 진행자 지적에 대해 장기 관점을 유지하며 반박.
다듬은 글
let's get back to the broader markets our next guest says that he likes stocks right now and thinks that equities are poised for a year-end rally joining us is Jeremy seagull he's professor ameritus of Finance and uh Professor seagull first of all thank you for being here um let let's talk through your thoughts on this some people think oh boy we we were due for a much bigger pullback we've seen the pullback and you think it's over you think it's uphill from here that equities prices are on the rise why is that yes let let me tell you why Becky uh a lot of people say look at how much bond yields aren't they real competition now for stocks um first of all stocks are selling for 17 times next year's earnings if you take out the tech it's like 14 or 15 if you go to small caps it's 11 and I know there's reasons why but those are very low valuations but more importantly why have bond yields risen so much it's not just the FED it is faster growth than anyone thought that's good for stocks uh uh you know promise of AI the third quarter is going to be a a real strong figure and I don't see really any real weakness in it but more importantly uh and I think this is a major reason bonds have been harmed by be proving to be a very bad hedge against inflation I mean bonds are great Hedges against geopolitical risk against financial crisis but they're very bad against inflation we didn't have inflation for 40 years so everyone sort of forgot about that Bond you know bad inflation uh outcome and then suddenly you know after the pandemic it reared its head and when we look forward the next 10 15 20 years people are saying you know what there may be more inflationary episodes do I really want to be in bonds and we know stocks are real assets just like real estate are real assets and I think that's one reason why people have shifted so bond yields yes have come up to be sure but that's because they've been damaged as being seen as the ultimate hedge against uh stock risk Professor let me ask you a question maybe I'm just not understanding this if you think that there could be more inflation to come that means that rates would go up even further still and that's been a big issue every time yields go up on the treasury market Spectrum you watch equities come under pressure um just as people get concerned and again they look to this as being maybe if you think there's more inflation that yields will go even higher that's why bonds are a bad place to be but ultimately that could be bad news for stocks too well I think actually inflation's on its way down right now um but Becky stocks in the long run and I've done all that long run data are excellent longterm Hedges you're planning a 10-year portfolio a 15 20 year retirement portfolio stocks do beautifully against inflation bonds do not um so you know yes I think inflation is going down right now but when we look ahead at the deficits and all the rest could there be another inflationary episode and then what do I want to hold do I want to hold real assets or do I want to hold paper assets and I think that's one of the reason why those yields have gone up you're 100% right at least historically that over you know a 10 20 or 30-year period you that is that is the case the question I'd ask is let's say you're in a different situation and you're looking you're looking at your accounts and the balances matter for the next decade let's just make it a decade what what do you think then I would still be in stocks you I mean you're talking about 10 10 years um 10 years 10 years is you know I you know if I think there's going to be some more you know I mean I think rates are going to come down but maybe three or four years hence there'll be another little episode of you know 6 78% do I want to be in paper assets do I want to be in real assets don't forget we had 40 years I mean from you know basically 1980 when we came down with after vulker all the way until the pandemic where we really didn't have an inflationary episode and that's one reason why bonds kept on going down down down in yield because people said oh yeah they're great Hedges against you know pandemics what anything that you want except inflation and people forgot about that they thought the FED would never let infl go this bad and now they're not as confident about that going into the future 10 years for me is enough time I want to be in real assets I agree with you so I I have a hard time arguing and Playing devil's advocate in this Jeremy uh but let me tell you about a couple other arguments that have been thrown out just in terms of valuations for right now um there are those who say look out we are at very high valuations given some downturn that's expected expected to come how much of what you're predicating your thesis on is that we'll have a soft landing and that there's not going to be a big downturn well soft Landing probabilities have definitely increased um uh you know it's interesting uh if we have a recession yeah I think stock prices will go down but one thing has always been true they go down too much in recessions um and they prove to be unbelievable buying opportunities people get really scared and then once that and listen we've bten out of every recession last 200 years we'll get out of the next one and then we see soaring you planning a 10-year portfolio I wouldn't worry about a recession if you're a timer and you think there's going to be a recession yeah I'd wait but you have to decide what what what you're gonna play that game or not you know how hard it is to play that game I rather you know concentrate on Long Run and as I said 17 times earnings and that's including all the tech xtec 15 14 times earnings even on a long-term historical basis is cheap
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