저자: VinnyJoe · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood의 ARK가 테슬라 주식을 약 1,000만 달러어치 추가 매수했다는 소식을 계기로, 2022년 5월 하락장 속 테슬라와 전기차 산업 전망을 다룬 영상이다. - 테슬라는 연초 대비 약 47% 하락했으나, 하락 원인은 중국 상하이 봉쇄 같은 단기 이슈보다 거시 환경과 성장주 약세에 있다고 진단. - ARK는 테슬라를 포함한 3개 ETF에 약 127만 주(약 8억 4,600만 달러) 보유 중이며, 이번 매수는 2월 이후 첫 매수다. - 애널리스트 Dan Ives(Wedbush)가 테슬라 목표가를 1,400달러에서 1,000달러로 낮춘 점을 소개하며, 목표가가 주가에 따라 움직이는 관행을 비판. - 진행자는 중국 전기차 기업 약 200곳 중 대부분이 도태될 것으로 보고, 원자재(리튬·코발트·니켈) 가격 상승과 자본 조달 어려움을 리스크로 제시. - 리비안(IPO 이후 약 -80%), NIO(-76%), 로드스타운 모터스(-93%) 등 전기차 신생 기업들의 대폭 하락을 근거로 업계 전반의 고통을 강조. - 반면 캘리포니아 테슬라 판매는 2022년 들어 83% 증가했고, 미국 전기차 판매 상위 3개 모델을 테슬라가 모두 차지한다고 주장. - FSD(완전자율주행) 베타의 발전과 인도네시아 배터리·전기차 공장 계획을 긍정 요인으로 제시. - 진행자는 테슬라를 자신의 최대 보유 종목으로 밝히며 주당 약 630달러에 추가 매수했다고 언급, 약 600달러 부근은 저평가 구간으로 봄. - 바닥을 정확히 예측할 수는 없지만 바닥에 가까워지고 있다고 판단하며, 하락장 동안 성장주는 더 부진할 수 있으나 회복 시 테슬라가 가장 유리한 위치에 있을 것이라는 장기 낙관론을 유지.
다듬은 글
kathy wood has just purchased 10 million dollars worth of tesla shares in her arc funds now arc invest gets flack from time to time when they decide to sell tesla shares while simultaneously shilling these outlandish tesla price targets now folks i'm a huge tesla bull myself and although arc usually has to sell shares because tesla's exceeding the 10 position size limit i understand how it's not the best look and gives cannon fodder to the naysayers but kathy woods arc invest has just scooped up about 15 858 shares worth about 10 million dollars as the stock has been crashing and underperformed the broad market we're going to talk about this and some of my thoughts on the eb market and what's going on in china and in general so tesla's down a whopping 47 year-to-date which despite headlines i think has nothing to do with tesla and the shanghai lockdowns and things like that and everything to do with the macro and growth stocks we're always going to fall harder and faster than the index in the event of a market downturn or the mother of all downturns as it sometimes feels like we're currently watching unfold in front of us now it's hard to believe but as a week ago that 13 trillion dollars of global wealth has been eradicated in this bear market so for some perspective during the great financial crisis of 2008 2009 roughly 17 trillion dollars of wealth was erased now this number is from a week ago and it's probably even much larger now this is pretty insane stuff we're watching unfold here so this arc invest purchase is actually their first time buying tesla since february and after months where ark was actually selling tesla which in hindsight was a good move although the rest of their holdings are down too i'm sure now arc invest owns tesla in three of six of its actively managed funds they have the arc flagship innovation fund rk uh rq the autonomous technology and robotics etf and the arc next generation internet etf rw they have tesla shares in each of those and before last thursday's trade is when this happened the three etfs held about 1.27 million shares of tesla worth 846 billion dollars meanwhile long-time tesla bull dan ives an analyst at webbush has lowered his price target for tesla to one thousand dollars from a thousand four hundred dollars citing the issues in china now these analyst price targets crack me up i mean when stocks are booming they increase them when stocks go down they lower their price targets i mean this practice is about as useless as a poopy flavored lollipop he cites issues in china which i believe are nothing more than an irrelevant short-term blip on the radar you know pertaining to the shanghai lockdowns that will hurt tesla's production this quarter it's not going to matter when we look back on this in five years though the factory is basically already back to full capacity and these production issues will be nothing more than a hiccup for the long-term trajectory of tesla now in 2022 we've largely witnessed an implosion of the ev industry eevee startups have gone public to rise and fall in some cases losing anywhere between 80 to 90 percent of their value i mean if we look at a stock like rivian since its ipo it is down 80 percent from its peak neo is down 76 that's another ev holding i have so tesla's my largest position i have a small very small position in neo as well which i'm down quite a bit on lordstown motors another general motors wonder investment down 93 percent from its peaks things are ugly out there and you know tesla of course is down about 47 now this is all happening while some have voiced concerns that in china specifically an oversupply is actually mounting of electric vehicles as the country has too many electric vehicle firms some believe there are some 200 odd eevee startups that have launched in china which is absolutely insane to think about you know in the pursuit of this favorable governmental treatment and all the subsidies that they're handing out so it hasn't been quite as extreme here in america but we do have several of our own now chinese china's ev market would appear saturated even though the demand is expected to rise to the ring of 5 million cars this year you know most of these 200 companies will fail there's too much investment chasing too little demand and too many companies with too little profit now over the past couple years we've seen many of these ev startups globally head to these lofty valuations when the cost of capital is cheap and rates were low but their market caps have since crumbled add to this list the rising production costs and surging prices on key raw materials like we're seeing with lithium cobalt and nickel and companies must raise car prices to offset the cost which is not helping it appears all but certain that many of these companies will not survive many have even gotten many have not even gone to the mass scaling phase which is what nearly bankrupted even tesla you know many companies are already raising alarm bells that they may cease to exist lordstown motors once said to be the tesla killer and one of a string of brilliant investments by general motors that also included nikola motors i can't has it said its ability to survive will depend on raising more capital this is going to be tremendously difficult and increasingly hard in the environment we are heading into it seems the pain for many of these companies is only truly beginning as it becomes an ever increasingly competitive market with these dire supply constraints supply chain issues as well as the shortage on these natural resources that are required for the batteries and there's gonna be limited capital available for investment you know it's not going to look like the last couple years when everything was booming and people were you know just dying to throw money at anything you know some of these companies will survive many will not but i remain ever as confident in tesla as a matter of fact i put some more money into it today buying at about 630 dollars a share and tesla's my number one holding tesla has not been spared this year though and has crashed a lot but nearing six hundred dollars it's starting to feel more cheaply valued all things considered and while no one can predict the exact bottom you know it does feel like we're getting closer meanwhile for the many who say tesla's demand will dry up as they're priced like a luxury automaker the cost of their cars are too expensive well if they're any indication california sales in 2022 uh demand for tesla is up 83 percent this year in stark contrast to all the other brands that you could see on the screen whose demands is simply cratering and if we zoom out to the you know broader us market here guess who has the top three selling electric vehicles in the us tesla tesla tesla the model y with 52 000 sold so far the model 3 with 47 000 sold model s with around 9 000.
far outpacing the competition ford comes in fourth place with the mustang maki with just under 7 000 sold tesla's dominance of this market i don't think is going anywhere for at least a few years and by that point it could very well be too late for the competition to make submit to take any meaningful amount of market share add to the list tesla's phenomenal full self driving it just keeps getting better i really encourage you to check out videos you can just type it in on youtube tesla fsd beta it's incredible this company keeps getting better and better and they just announced that they're going to be doing a battery and an electric vehicle factory in indonesia this company is firing on all cylinders and while you know in the short term the stock is going to keep getting beat up for as long as we're in this downturn um so growth stocks are going to suffer but i think that when we come out of this tesla will come out of it in the strongest position i think they're already in the strongest position but they will only be bet you know they they only stand to benefit while many of the legacy auto companies i think are going to be hurting um so i think tesla is firing on all cylinders here you enjoyed this video please don't forget to like and subscribe you can follow me on twitter at investwithvinny and let me know your thoughts in the comments below i'll see you guys next time
Comments 0