The economy has demonstrated that these are normal interest rates, says Ed Yardeni

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S&P500 고점 후 당분간 횡보 가능성 제기, 지정학 리스크(중동, 튀르키예-이스라엘 긴장)를 주시. 실적은 견조(2분기 +8~10% 전망), 9월 0.25%p 금리인하는 한 번으로 끝날 수 있다고 봄. 인플레이션은 경기침체 없이 하락 중이며 현재 금리는 경제가 감당 가능한 정상 수준이라 인하 필요성에 의문. 소형주는 2년간 이익 정체와 대형사 인수 구조로 구조적 문제 가능성, 러셀2000 신고가 미달 언급.

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01. joining us now Ed yardeni president of yardeni research Ed you've been I don't know you've been optimistic I won't even say cautiously optimistic you've been optimistic you think we may have seen the highs in the S&P though now for a while but nothing to get too concerned about why yeah well look there's a lot of uh reasons why the market should churn should move sideways here for a while I think we've discounted that uh earnings are C certainly doing well uh the analysts are expecting that earnings will be up 8% on a year-over-year basis during this uh second quarter earning season we're expecting 10% we think they're coming in uh reasonably well uh in addition I think the markets discounted the fact that the FED will most likely uh cut the FED funds rate in September uh and that might be one and done I mean I know that there's a lot of people talking about more but the economy is performing a awfully well but uh the the big risk out there remain geopolitical I mean the crazy headlines today about turkey threatening to invade Israel I mean just crazy stuff going on in the Middle East and the market so far has uh just blown it off and focused on the the domestic situation but uh I'm I'm watching it it's uh it's it's unsettling let's let's put it that way I know that that you know changes in direction for the FED are significant but right one cut one cut and then you've got you know the Market's been uh Market's been doing pretty well and if you believe in the wealth effect at all and then you maybe we've seen some indications of a softening in the labor market but we just got that GDP number we'll see what happens on on this Friday but they're almost locked into it they promis they they talk so much and they give so much they give so much guidance that now we're like counting on getting something that doesn't even matter and if we don't get it you know we're going to be disappointed but what's the quarter point anyway that's it's just weird that we're we're so focused on something that may or may not happen I don't see why they should do it either I I think weird is the correct word here because uh we've got an economy that's generating solid GDP growth we got inflation coming down inflation's come down without a recession it was widely thought that a recession would be necessary to bring inflation down we've gotten through that narrow path of uh of inflation coming down without a recession here and uh the FED for some reason has signaled that they uh are definitely going to deliver us a quarter point uh cut in in September when it might may not actually be be necessary and you know we had a we had something that felt like a melt up until July 16th which is the all-time record high in the S&P 500 I don't think we want to go there again by having the Fed be too aggressively easy when the economy doesn't need it well the one thing about a cut is that uh it it definitely but they could always go back up but it means that that we're not going to the next move is not going to be a hike uh which even though it's only a core point at least that takes that off the table but do you get the notion that the FED different than than last time they stayed too long could they be staying too long at at at these restrictive levels is there any way there's something Brewing trouble in the labor market that that we don't know about and all of a sudden it really comes on us quickly so that they're too late is that possible yeah well look it's certainly possible but uh the the fact of the matter is the uh labor market remains solid um it when you talk about restrictive interest rates I I I agree that they've gone from a Fed funds rate of zero to 5 and a qu% to 5 a half% and that's seems very restrictive but the started with zero the real abnormality was Zero wasn't 5 and A4 to 52% I think they've actually normalized interest rates and the economies demonstrated that these are normal interest rates for an economy that can certainly uh deal with these rates uh with inflation still coming down so why mess with success I mean everything is going pretty well here why why is it necessary to cut the FED funds rate look doesn't matter what I think they're they're going to do it right but you're not that impressed yet with the small cap rally we talk about it a lot everything else has hit Highs but the Russell has not not hit new highs so you will it get to the point where the rotation will be complete and the small caps will catch up or has it been disappointing and that makes you suspect well I think the problem with the small caps uh is that the earnings earnings have been flat for the past two years usually when the econom is growing which is what it's been doing as small cap earnings do very well but um you know I think there may be a structural problem in the small cap Marketplace and that is a lot of the really good companies get bought out before they go public uh and they get bought out by the uh the large caps that have a lot of cash and have basically Investment Banking departments inhouse that are constantly looking for really good opportunities to expand their business so um you know I don't know if we're ever going to get another Microsoft you know it's hard hard to imagine that a a small private company is going to go public and become a next Microsoft because Microsoft will probably buy them somewhere along the way either before they go public or soon after