저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia 발언을 인용하며 2~3년간 시장에서 돈을 벌기 어렵다고 주장. 니프티가 2~3년 내 26,000을 넘지 못한다는 취지. 공포·탐욕 사이클과 역발상 매수 타이밍을 강조하고, 장기 분산투자(플렉시캡 펀드) 활용을 제시. 워런 버핏·라케시 주정부(Rakesh Jhunjhunwala) 등 대가들의 과거 실수 사례를 소개하며 시장 타이밍은 어렵다고 설명. 구체적 자산 방향 예측은 대부분 과거 사례 중심.
다듬은 글
Yes friends, you heard it right. You will not make money in the market. For at least two to three years. This is what Vijay Kedia ji says. Look friends, it has been mentioned here that Nifty will not cross 26,000 within 2 to 3 years. That means whatever growth there is will happen after two-three years and no money will be made.
Meaning overall. Now let us try to find out why he said this. Now see why he said that? So you can see this as an interview. you will find out. Ok? It is available on business channels. I will try to tell you how you can use fear and greed in the market. How can one earn money from it and it is said that fear and greed are used in a way that even retail investors do not do.
Big investors do it. So friends, I will also teach you this, I will also tell you this as per the historical data that even these big investors are not able to use fear and greed. And this also goes wrong in front of the market. So, you should not listen to anyone. You should use your thinking. You should create your own thought process.
Whatever your investing style is , defensive or aggressive, you should look at things accordingly. We will see many more things here. The video is quite interesting and at the end I will tell you about a fund or a source that shows you how to make good investments without timing the market and try to generate good returns.
So first of all friends, do you know who Vijay Kedia ji is? What type of investor are you? He struggled a lot in the beginning. And that means maximum investors who have become big. Look, you have become big according to your risk capacity. He has become great in terms of his investing skills. But the biggest role has been played by luck.
With luck, Harshit Mehta's move boom has brought in many investors. Have earned a lot of money. And since then those regulations have been made. The market dynamics have changed. Fundamentals, all this stuff has come. After that it became money again. But the boost in initial capital that these old investors have got is due to the boom of Harshad Mehta because friends, at that time there was no fundamental technical, no regulation, no framework in the market, it was just pure place speculation, the market used to go up on liquidity basis, so all those things happen, now see whether you know about them or not, then I would like to tell you that their net worth is around Rs 1470 crore, their portfolio size is also there, apart from that they must have more investments also.
Well friends, let's move ahead. Now look, the investment advice is to take a big bet and ride it even during tough times. Now everyone gets such investment advice. It belongs to Warren Buffett. It belongs to Rakesh ji. They have it. But even he himself is not able to follow it. How can you not do it?
I will show you the data later. You can see the investment philosophy. This is his style of investing and he is 100% invested for 30 years. Now this is also not correct somewhere because they also come to the cash out of fear and panic. Sell a lot of stocks. He holds the cash and then, like a retail investor, misses the opportunity when the market goes up.
So this happens with them too. The motive behind making this video is that right now in the bad market you will see so much negativity. So much so that these big investors or the TV channels will try to make you negative. But you do n't have to be negative. Ok? Now look, here is a game of fear and greed.
The whole market is a mind game and nothing else. It is a game of patience here. One who understands fear and greed makes good money by investing. Now look, you know about greed and fear. Many times, if you are an old subscriber, you must have seen this method which I teach you in graphical form. Look, there is optimism in the market, first of all it seems that now the market will be good.
After that there is more acceleration and acceleration and after that the market reaches its top. Then when the market reaches its peak, investors invest and become anxious that they have invested but who knows what will happen. Then there is denial, followed by fear, and then the market crashes. Investors panic and this is where buying is the best time for investing.
At the time of fear, when we see that a double bottom is being formed or the market has fallen so much, then the stock or the market is trying to hold on to its position or some reversals have happened, then there is hope in it, relief is obtained, then the cycle repeats again, so many people invest here and many people get scared here.
Now friends, it is not like that we have seen this bottom or the market is making a double bottom or it is stopping here and after that if it goes up a little then it can also go down. What is happening right now? The market has gained some momentum but it may break the previous bottom and go down a little further.
There is no problem. Here the investor invested according to his strategy. That's all he can do. There is no God. So you did the right thing. After that the market will again go down and try to form a base. The investor will invest back there. The investor can only do his duty. The market will provide him with the fruit.
He doesn't know if he invests here. Then that market went down. He is thinking, friend, I have made a mistake. You did not commit any mistake. At least you did not take it here. Ok? Ok? So all these things keep happening inside the market. Now look friends, let me give you the data. The past is very important data.
I mean, I have been in the market for a long time. So I have seen every kind of market. I have not seen the market of 8 but I have seen all the markets after that and I remember everything. So I keep sharing that experience with you. Because it is possible that many investors may have come into the market after Covid.
So look, there is a story of Covid. You know what happened with Covid. So investors say that you should remain invested even during tough times. Money should be invested in the market and held. He himself was scared at that time. You can watch this interview. Ok? Now see, it has been mentioned here.
Forget the market for 6 months. Do yoga and keep cash in your hand. So he also withdrew the cash. Sold stocks in the market. Look, if the market has fallen so much, some big investor must be selling. So this was also one of them. Kept cash and did yoga, after that friends the market did Surya Namaskar and headed towards the sun, market stocks had multipled within 6 months and then if many people must have followed then they made a mistake because the investor must have taken higher interest later or whatever it is, okay, so this has happened before also, they got scared in Russia and Ukraine also, this happens with every investor, now it is not that they do not know investing, definitely they are much better than us but I am trying to explain that they are also human beings, everyone is human, everyone makes mistakes, so you should not be so much worried that someone is telling you that he is a big investor and he has earned money.
He is a PMS manager, he has come on YouTube or else he is doing some Amritvani in which one lakh people are paying ₹0000. So you should not do all these things. This is just my attempt to explain it. Every human being is wrong. You should keep your thinking thought process. Ok? Now look, there is another person here too.
You can see all their names here. Ok? You shouldn't be brave right now. Get out of the market. This is what he is saying. Butt is fine. You also know it. Now you have learned so much , you have seen that if you don't buy at the bottom, then when will you buy? It's not like I'm asking you to buy it. Just a study that I am trying to put before you.
Because everything has happened. There is a tariff, it was there earlier also when it came in 17. The market is gone. How high has it gone? Covid also came. 21 22 means Russia Ukraine also happened. This too will go, something else will come tomorrow. Ok ? The market will run if the business of the companies runs, so now see, I will give you bigger examples because these are not as big investors as I will tell you now, so if they can make mistakes then these people can also make mistakes.
It can happen to you , it can happen to me too. Ok? Now let's talk about Warren Buffett. I am telling you this just according to a data study. It is not that I am saying that this is their mistake or something like that. Ok? I am talking in terms of learning. Look, when the financial crisis came in 2008, initially people became hesitant thinking that the market has fallen suddenly and they are not sure whether they should invest money or not.
So if you see, he had made some legendary investments here, which included Goldman and Bank of America. But he later admitted that he could have invested more. Now this is the fear that people are not able to buy dip because they do n't know if the market will go down further. I have cash lying around so should I invest it or not?
Ok? He was sitting on a lot of cash at that time. Longer than necessary. There was extreme uncertainty. This was better than this. He himself accepted his own tip that if you do not time the market then it would be better to print money because even at the low end he would pick up the goods. Ok? So I have tried to time what I say myself.
So look at all these things, we are human beings, it happens. Ok? Now see, it has been mentioned here which you can read, according to this, whatever he has said has been mentioned here. Now look, let's talk about Covid in 2020, you must know this, if you were in the market during Covid, then from their side it was said that I will not invest because I do not know yet, I have some cash lying around, I am not able to understand how to use it, there is no opportunity in the market, so they missed a lot here also, later they said sold, sold airline stocks, sold at losses, later in 2020, planes started flying and stocks also started flying, then they regretted, now you can see that they did not buy aggressively in the beginning.
Meaning when there was a sudden dip. Ok? Whatever else was there, we were funding it and they felt that it should not be done now. Look how much cash there was. Do you know how much $1 billion dollars is? It happens a lot. Ok? You can convert it into rupees and see. Now here they had $100 billion in cash.
No major bye. Did not do any major buying. It has been mentioned that we did not do anything because we were scared. We did not find anything else attractive in terms of valuation. Ok? So I tried to time it ultimately. If you don't do it, you make money. Ok? Now look, it has been mentioned here also that this is surprising because Warren Buffett is well known.
Be Greedy When the Rest is Fearful. But he himself became fearful when the market crashed. It happens. Now after this there was com bubble, they did not invest much money in it, later on Amazon stocks were missed, they did not buy much, Apple also they bought very late, like all these things are fine, now let's talk about Rakesh ji, what all has he tried to teach us because we should learn from mistakes, what a normal person does, he will learn from his own mistakes by making mistakes and what a wise person does, he learns from the mistakes of others, so if we do not learn from the mistakes of these big investors then from where will we learn, the global financial crisis of 2008.
If you look at this also, during the crash, they were saying that yes, there will be a very good rise in the market from the bottom. Everything will happen but they could not do as much as they should have. You can see I have mentioned that I knew it would be recovered. But I did not have the courage to do aggressive buying.
Ok? Also, if you see during the time of Covid, it has been mentioned here that he was quite bullish for the long term. But like Warren Buffett, he also did not do much there. You can see I missed the bottom. I missed the bottom. I was bearish when the market was at 27,000 Sensex and I turned bullish when it reached around 40,000.
Still he made a lot of money because he added on the stocks of some companies like Titan, new battery, Tata Motors, Nazar TC, you can see that these stocks are doing well right now during the time of Covid. He missed the new stock initially, you must have seen an interview if you keep watching the market and keep listening to his words, then as per the learnings from big investors, he had said for Zomato that you will see, nothing will happen to Zomato in future, the stock will become garbage but it recovered quite well from there.
Ok? So these mistakes happen. It is done by the investor. You should not think that it happens only because of you. The best fear is this. Don't waste time. Keep investing slowly. You don't know what will happen next. How will the market recover? No one knows. But at the end things get recovered. Look, bear market is mentioned here.
1992.com Crash It went with rough faces. You can read everything here. Now look at the market, their philosophy is that the market will always give you a second chance. Do n't regret that you missed some opportunity. Learn from them and then apply it further. Many people do not learn. There is a company, for example, Relaxo.
If its fundamentals do not work and new earnings growth is coming then do not sell it. We do not take other companies. They remain stable. I have made a mistake. If we miss an opportunity, we do n't learn. What's up now? The market has come down again. There is still opportunity. A lot of people will switch, a lot of people won't.
I am giving an example. It is not that whether you should sell Relaxo or buy it, it is all up to you. I am giving an example of what we can try to learn from these big investors. So, that's all there is to it, friends. Let's talk about the conclusion and let me try to tell you. There is a market. If you work with discipline, you will earn money.
To achieve your goal, you will have to show discipline. You will have to show consistency. This means what happens if you want to invest without timing the market ? There are categories within the market. Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Liquid, Gold, Overseas Equity. Ok? So, what does this all come down to?
Comes in a flexi cap. If someone does not know anything about the market or does not have much knowledge or does not want to work hard, then there are such funds. Now I am not saying that you have to invest in this. Just for the sake of teaching, I am telling you how the market works. Now look, let us look here.
So, no money was made here but the investor is investing with discipline but one month he got a boost here but no money was made but the investor is investing now see here when the market was going up, someone must have invested here at the top also, okay after that the market fell and he thought that I have made a mistake, after that someone must have invested here also, after that the market fell and he thought that he had made a mistake, but if investing is going on at the bottom also then all those things get balanced and an average is formed.
If the thinking is that I will not invest, I will invest time, then look after Covid, the market had reached here in recovery. Anyone can do it, but no one might have invested here. But the market did not come back to this price and even when the market fell, that price was still quite high. If no one invests here after the recovery, then this price will never be available.
I think and it's quite high. So there is no need to time the market. Look, we have to make time. You have to use your brain a little. So look at mid and small, if the valuation is very high then we stop. If it comes down, we will take it. But if a set of portfolios is available which have flexibility.
What can a fund manager do? He will give 60% in domestic equity as per his calculation. Overseas will give 12% in US equities. He will keep 10% cash in liquid funds, make some deposits in FDs etc., then he will think that come on friend, domestic equity has become cheap, let's invest more money in it, overseas equity has become cheap, let's invest more money in it, let's finish the cash.
So that flexibility is being invested by the fund manager for you. The rest is your job to invest in it without wasting time. So this is how things play out. So I hope friends you must have learned. If you have seen the entire video then write yes in the comment below so that I also feel that the hard work was successful.
You watch the video completely so that I can bring more such videos for you. Rest of the friends, it is very important to watch tomorrow's videos. Only one video today, see you tomorrow with the rest of the information. Until then , good night.
Comments 0