저자: Crypto Cave · 외국인
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so you know why such confidence in it as an investment aside from the fact that it certainly has worked really well and more people are kind of jumping on the bandwagon there's several different several different ways to approach that yeah um i i would say that right now it's it's best thought of as digital gold so it's gold as as people have said a store of value for 5 000 years right and gold is what people typically fled to when the government's tried to uh you know inflate them out and in the united states franklin d roosevelt confiscated everybody's gold in 1933.
you had to turn it in and you went to jail so they can't confiscate your bitcoin because there's nothing you hold it securely as long as you have an internet connection you can you can send it somewhere instantaneously at very low very low cost and the reason i the reason i i like the insurance company analogy is because if you think about people talk about the intrinsic value of bitcoin this is a warren buffett argument that bitcoin has no intrinsic value it doesn't have any earnings it'll never pay any dividends uh and so so how do you even think about something like that it is a new technology something that couldn't be done before but in any case the answer that i have to that is well i mean what's the what's the intrinsic value of that mickey mantle baseball card that sold for five and a half million dollars it's just cardboard and it doesn't even have a ledge it could be counterfeited very easily or what's the intrinsic value of a picasso painting which just canvas and paint uh and uh you know maybe a frame but people will pay millions or tens of millions of dollars for it and so it comes down at the very basic level for supply and demand so bitcoin is the only economic entity where the supply is unaffected by the demand so even with gold if gold which is eighteen hundred dollars today if gold goes to eighteen thousand dollars there will be a lot more gold mined because mines that are unprofitable will become profitable and so gold which which accretes today the production of gold is about equal about one and a half to two percent of the total value per year that's the same uh accretion that bitcoin has currently uh that but this year 2022 i think we'll drop below 1.5 on that so only only 21 million bitcoin can ever be created or close to it it doesn't matter if bitcoin is 100 000 or or 20 million there's only going to be that many of them so um all you have to really believe is that the demand for bitcoin will grow faster than one and a half percent you know over the next number of years and the price inexorably will go up so i've i've i've only recently been allowing myself to be described as a bitcoin bull i i used to tell people oh you're a bitcoin bull you own a lot of bitcoin i'm like i do own a lot of it but i'm actually a bitcoin observer and i'm observing its trajectory as a new technology and comparing it to the trajectories of things like uh the printing press or the steam engine or the railroads or the automobile or electricity and and it's following that very uh uh not not predictable because it's not predictable certainly in the early days a well understood path for the adoption of new technologies and you know stan i think it was stan druckenmiller uh said uh earlier in the year that and and now he owns bitcoin by the way um but he said that bitcoin was the solution in search of a problem and what i've found amusing about that is every new technology is a solution in search of a problem because you have a new technology then trying to figure out what you're going to do with it and so you know when you when we created the internet what are we going to do with that so uh the defense department had used good uses for it but it was tough for other other people to see and but now everybody can see what the value of the internet is same thing with the internal combustion engine which was very dangerous and all but now that's taken over the world and now we're going to move to electricity so all kinds of technologies have to grow into their uh grow into their potential and bitcoin is i guess you want the theoretical answer to the question is that's the work of brian arthur santa fe institute and stanford who is kind of the leading authority on what he calls increasing returns economics and what he calls lock-in and path dependence in the economy so his basic idea is that when technologies reach a certain dominance and they're the leader it's almost impossible to dislodge them even without a very superior technology and bitcoin's there is that what that's what that's what i would say i and the other bulls believe okay but why the outsized why 50 of your personal net worth i mean i'm i'm assuming that you're the other 50 is in like miller value funds or i don't know how you've diversified and well actually actually close to the other 50 is in amazon all of the rest of the investments that i have are basically there to support margin debt because i always i'm typically always on margin which means i can take a lot of volatility now i'm not obviously on uh deadly margin i'm on using regular reg t margin and i've got a fair amount of margin capacity but the rest of the all the stocks could eliminate all the margin debt and have a fair amount left over and then i'd have those those if i had to sell all those to pay off the debt then still have bitcoin and amazon bill can you explain to me the concept of bitcoin as an insurance policy there's 21 million shares of this insurance company outstanding and every day that somebody wakes up and says you know i need some insurance in case something you know in case the government seizes all the gold like they did back in 1933 or you know when afghanistan we pulled out of afghanistan um western unions stopped remittances so if you if you couldn't get money uh and it's still hard to get money in afghanistan uh you were in serious trouble in lebanon the lira has completely collapsed venezuela's a failed state and yet bitcoin uh continues right along that was your insurance policy against financial catastrophe of one sword or another and what did the fed do when the pandemic shut down all parts of uh threatened to shut down all parts of the economy the financial markets came unglued and the normal relationships between uh cash and bonds and securities especially asset-backed securities got blown apart and the fed had to increase the money supply by 25 to keep those things from collapsing as they did in 2008 right during that time the bitcoin network functioned perfectly there was no run on it there was you know prices went down initially until people figured out wait a minute we've had a tremendous collapse here and the bitcoin uh uh blockchain is functioning without it without it without any interference at all so i think that that explains it i think in a way that many people can understand if you literally want a little bit of financial insurance then you know buy a bitcoin or a part of a bitcoin the argument i get most often is why not gold right which is considered to be an insurance policy against catastrophe historically so the answer to that is um in my opinion anyway uh gold has gone from effect around five thousand years so it's gone from those called make up a number and say a dime a nickel in today's uh parlance and in 5 000 years it's gone from a nickel to 1850 and in 10 years bitcoin has gone from a nickel to 57 000 so why would i own gold especially since gold in the last 10 years has gone down in the last 10 years bitcoin is the best performing asset category in the world so you recently marked 40 years in the investment business and you know how have how has the investment business changed as far as your approach is concerned and how have you changed how have you evolved over the last 40 years the investment business is of course radically different from what it was 40 40 years ago when i got got involved in it that one major difference is interest rates at that point in time were the in the united states were the highest in u.s history and now they're not just the high the lowest in u.s history or close to it but for most countries in the world the lowest in five thousand years so complete radical transformation of the fixed income markets uh in 1982 when we started our when i was at like mason we started our mutual fund the value trust the amount of money and i'm going from memory here the amount of money and actively managed mutual funds in the entire country was around 70 billion dollars and at the peak of our assets in the in the value trust and cognate institutional accounts we had 78 billion dollars so more money than was in the industry at all when i got when i got into it um and but what what hasn't changed is that that human nature hasn't changed fear and greed haven't changed and most importantly we understand a lot more than we used to through the workings of social psychologists and behavioral finance theorists how large numbers of people behave under certain circumstances well-defined circumstances and one of the things that we know it's been proven over and over again is that the coefficient of loss to gain is two to one so a dollar's worth of loss in the market is twice as painful as a dollar's worth of gain is pleasurable and as warren buffett's often says fear is contagious and spreads rapidly and confidence only returns slowly one person at a time but what that means is when you have very dramatic negative events that people tend to overreact to them and that those are they're rare but they're perfect buying opportunities but i think those those are the principles that can be that aren't going to be changing and that's why you can read jesse livermore's reminiscence of the stock operator or the ben graham's the intelligent investor and and profit from it even though the markets are very very different from when those books were published
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