저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 달러 기반 자산의 위험을 경고하며 인플레이션이 이미 진행 중이라는 주장을 펼친다. 결론: 인플레이션은 이미 와 있으며 달러 자산 비중을 줄이고 해외 자산과 금·은 등 실물자산으로 대비하라는 것이다. 인플레이션 인식: 양적완화로 통화량이 늘어 자산가격(주식·부동산·채권·암호화폐)이 이미 상승했고, 소비재 물가 상승은 시차를 두고 나타날 것이라고 본다. 달러 위험: 차기 위기의 진원지는 미국 달러이며, 달러 표시 주식·부동산·연금·채권도 인플레이션에 잠식될 수 있다고 주장한다. 해외 분산: 세금이 낮고 재정적자와 대외 무역수지가 양호한 채권국 중심 국가의 자산과 신흥시장 주식·부동산에 투자하라고 권한다. 정책 비판: 연준의 양적완화와 지출 확대는 위기를 미루는 것이며, 결국 금리를 크게 올려야 하는 상황에 몰릴 것이라고 비판한다. 실물자산: 금과 은이 가장 유력한 위기 대비 자산으로 제시되나, 운반·보관 문제와 2000유로 이상 금 구매 신고제도를 지적한다. 부동산 리스크: 재산세를 통해 정부가 부동산 가치를 직접 환수할 수 있으며 전후 사례를 들어 경고한다. 대안 암시: 디지털이 아니고 실물에 기반하며 수백 년간 자산을 보존해 온 '제3의 대안'이 있다고 암시하나 구체적 명칭은 밝히지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff: Why There Isn't Inflation Yet, It's Already Here. This is a translation of an interview with Peter Schiff, a US stockbroker and financial commissioner. It reflects his view of the current situation regarding inflation in the US, which can be almost directly applied to the European situation.
Like most people, I think that the epicenter of the next crisis will be the US dollar. This crisis will have the same dynamics as the financial crisis predicted for 2008, only worse, with devastating consequences for those who are not prepared. I am trying to convince people to get rid of their US dollar assets, build a good investment portfolio outside the US, and teach them how to deal with foreign stocks and emerging new markets.
We are currently experiencing a historic rise in the price of gold and silver. I mean, this should not only be used by companies that mine these precious metals, but also by investors who can sell them at a profit. And this is not just one way you can protect your wealth, but They can even increase this further if they understand the dynamics of what is actually happening and grasp that, then they are more than ready for the endgame.
In my opinion, the biggest risk one can take in the long term, the biggest mistake, is not owning money—or rather, paper money, if anything else. Physical dollar bills, whether under the mattress, lent against a promissory note, or whether they are Treasury bonds or company shares, no matter how, repayment will always be in dollar bills, i.e., paper money, because the dollar as we know it will no longer exist anytime soon.
The dollar note will be wiped out by inflation. It doesn't matter if, for example, you have an insurance policy or a pension plan that pays out monthly. Yes, that's a lot of dollars, that's true, but the bad thing is that the coming inflation triggers exactly these things. Now, one might think, well, if you own US stocks, for example, then you own a real investment because you own actual shares of a company—essentially the intellectual property of an operating company.
That's true, but beware... Most of their customers are located in America and earn US dollars in an inflationary environment, so why try to raise prices in an inflationary environment to compensate for the loss of value? This is obviously difficult to achieve during a recession and inflation. Seeking security and protection in stocks is not a good idea, and the same applies to real estate.
Imagine if you own real estate; you possess intrinsic value, but if you rent out your property, for example, your landlord will most likely pay you in US dollars, not Swiss francs. So how can I generate value and income outside the USA in currencies other than the US dollar? Of course, these should be countries with better fundamentals, without a crisis currency, and not on the brink of economic collapse or heading directly towards socialism like us.
We need to look at places in the world that are freer in their tax laws, pay less tax, have a smaller deficit, and have better trade balances from creditor nations instead of... Debtor nations, and why not invest in these countries and buy stocks and real estate there? The interviewer asks, "Aren't you so against the Janet Yellens and Rom Pauls of this world who say, 'Hey, if we spend a lot now, we'll have such a strong economy that we wo n't have to worry about inflation in the future because we'll pay off all our debts here and be in a better position?' Peter Schiff says, 'Well, we actually have different views.
You see, I actually care about our country, and I want it to thrive and remain successful in the long term. The strategy of Paul and the others, in my opinion, is to postpone the whole thing, preferably until the next election. You see, all they're trying to do is push the day of reckoning as far away as possible.
They don't care how bad that day will be. They do n't even understand the connections. Because delay only achieves one thing: making the problem worse. To prevent inflation, we have to move away from the dollar. It's astonishing that it hasn't come to this yet, since we've already been doing this for twelve months." Years in this quantitative easing phase, the interviewer asks why you think inflation is n't fully here yet.
Peter Schiff says, basically, inflation has been here for a long time. We do n't have to wait for the cow. Inflation is just another word for exactly the same thing, only with the difference that people naturally don't like inflation. That means if the Fed says, "We're going to use our inflation law now," then people naturally say, "Wait a minute, I want inflation!
Then everything will get more expensive." So, of course, they don't say anything about inflation, but something like, " We're introducing quantitative easing," which sounds much better, of course. The word inflation translates to "inflate." You can fill a balloon with air, and it will deflate. But that doesn't work with prices.
You can't inflate prices; prices rise or fall, they don't expand. So, we're creating more and more inflation, and inflation increases and expands the money supply. When the money supply expands, prices rise and thus create an inflationary effect. As I said, however, that's only the effect. Now you had me.
The question is, when will we feel the real inflation? For example, in the supermarket, if suddenly all everyday items become more expensive, we know that this will eventually happen, but at the moment, inflation has only driven up asset prices, which is also a very effective form of inflation. The fact that, for example, the stock market is rising is not due to higher incomes or a better economy, but rather it is the inflationary stock prices, as well as real estate prices, bond prices, and all kinds of collectibles or cryptocurrencies, that are being driven up.
But basically, every infection affects consumer goods. Why do people buy stocks? Not to hang the stock certificate on the wall, but because they hope to earn more money. This money is then used to buy things, to accumulate more goods. So when people sell their stocks to buy more things, prices rise.
Because thanks to the Fed, everyone is so deeply in debt that if they tried to pull the tablecloth out from under the house of cards with one push, everyone would collapse. The Fed We're backed into a corner, and that's why inflation is rapidly approaching. So prepare yourself. The interviewer asks what you think about the possibility that, for example, if the money supply decreases, we simply print more money.
What if people become more sophisticated, better informed about investments, or save more, pay off their debts (be careful, they'll be there), or simply do n't spend as much money as before? Then that wouldn't lead to higher prices, would it? So why not just keep printing more money? Peter Shift says, "Yes, why not?" Let's assume this continues until the crisis hits and we're confronted with it.
Imagine you want to jump off a cliff. You feel safe because you have a rope. You attach it to a sturdy tree and jump, still with the secure feeling that nothing can happen because you have this rope. But what you can't know is whether your rope is long enough or whether you'll ultimately hit the ground.
So we're back to the topic of postponement. Yes, the Inflation is coming, but please not right now. With this statement, we indulge in the illusion of false security, and that's precisely what 's fatal. Because once inflation arrives, it's too late. Interest rates and prices will rise rapidly, and the Fed says we can live well with a two percent increase.
Two percent isn't much, is it? Or even three percent, it's still okay, right? But suddenly it's 67 percent, and what do we do then? We have to raise interest rates by 10 or 15 percent. But I mean, how is that supposed to work? We can't even afford one percent. We have so much debt that all of this is simply impossible.
So, to quote Johann Wolfgang von Goethe from "The Sorcerer's Apprentice," " The spirits I summoned I now cannot rid myself of." And in my opinion, that's also one of the reasons why the Fed claims they need even higher inflation so that in the end everyone believes inflation is a good thing. But don't worry, they will do absolutely nothing to protect us from this situation.
Protecting oneself is crucial, because in their opinion, curing inflation is worse than its cause. What options does one have to protect one's money in such a situation? Of course, tangible assets are an option, and within the tangible asset sector, there are two major favorites. The first favorite is gold.
Gold and silver are the number one crisis currency, very popular and, of course, very well-known. But what do you do when, for example, during a crisis, the shops and online stores are closed? What do you do when everyone wants to buy? Then, of course, there's nothing left to buy, or the prices are extremely inflated at such a time.
What do you do if, for example, you want to transport valuables from A to B? In extreme cases, perhaps even have to? A million in gold weighs approximately 27 kg. Have you ever carried 27 kilograms in a heavy backpack for an extended period? Or you want to transport gold unnoticed on a plane—and I would really like to encourage you to try transporting gold on a plane past customs—but you will almost certainly not get through the scanner, and it will be detected with near 100% certainty.
You can't just take them away from them these days; they can't simply carry a million in gold around. And another question regarding gold: what about the reporting requirement? Why is there this reporting requirement? Did you know that every gold purchase over 2000 euros is reported? And have you ever wondered why you even have to report a gold purchase?
Why does the state want to know that you have gold at home? It's not on any income tax return, and it doesn't generate any interest. There's also no capital gains tax that you would have to pay. So why does the state want to know why you own gold? Quite simply, so that in the end, they know exactly where to retrieve it in an emergency.
The second major, seemingly secure, asset is real estate, which is very popular as a tangible asset investment. However, they are aware that their property can be directly accessed at any time via property tax. And this has already happened: after the Second World War, compulsory quotas were registered on all properties, specifically 50 percent based on the assessed value of the property.
For over 30 years, the owners of these properties had to... Real estate owners can repay the money through increased property taxes. Even now, there are already efforts underway to impose higher levies on property owners. However, there is a third option being considered, one that is still relatively unknown in Germany: a truly excellent alternative, not digital, backed by real assets, which has proven for centuries that it has preserved and even saved assets.
And if you want to know what it is, simply click on the like button and share this video. I'll gladly tell you what it's all about.
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