저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 현재 관세·부채·지정학 충돌이 맞물려 리세션보다 더 심각한 통화질서 붕괴(1930년대 유사)가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 미국 재정적자가 GDP 약 7%로 3% 목표보다 크고, 올해 6월 전후 약 11조 달러 규모 국채 차환이 몰려 있어 금리 상승 압력이 커진다고 본다. 관세는 중국 희토류 통제 등 탈중국 측면에선 의미가 있으나 준비 없이 시행되면 혼란을 키운다고 평가한다. 해법으로는 의회의 재정적자 3% 감축 약속 등 초당적 재정 조정을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio just said we are heading towards a depression, not just a recession. So, let's watch. Welcome back. And joining me now is Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates. He is also the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. It's out in June. Mr. Dalio, welcome to Meet the Press.
Thank you. Good to be here. Just call me Ray. Okay. Well, Rey, I'll take you up on that. Thank you so much for being here. Uh we really appreciate your perspective. But as I just said, you did found the world's largest hedge fund. Uh you have been in this field for more than 50 years. It's it is the largest hedge fund, but I think he has a lot of money from China.
It's showing 8 billion. I thought he had way more cuz he has hundreds of bill. I think it's important to note you consider yourself to be apolitical. And you say that the tariff problem is a symptom of a much greater problem. What do you mean by that? There's uh a financial problem. There's an imbalance problem.
There are basically five big forces through history that drive everything. First, there's the money, credit, debt, economic cycle in which there's a building up of debt in a cyclical way that becomes too large and we're going to have problems. We're going to have a government debt problem. Maybe we can get into this.
The second big force through time is the um internal conflict force. The left and the right. Differences in wealth and values causing a conflict that we're seeing changing our political order. So the first is changing our monetary order. The second is changing our political order internally. And then the third is the great world order.
I think the cost of living crisis is like one thing where I think it does feel like it's bipartisan because when that insurance CEO was, you know, unalived. People from both sides kind of supported it, which was a little messed up, but it is it shows us like how bad people see insurance companies and that also plays into whole like it's very expensive to live a normal life.
Now the how countries deal with each other when there's a rising power challenging existing power and now we are going from multilateralism which is largely an American world order type of thing to a unilateral world order in which there's great conflict and the other two factors all through history have been acts of nature droughts floods I think he means we're going from unilateral to multilateral and number of countries deal with each other and world order type of thing largely.
We're going from multilateralism which is largely an American world order type of thing to a unilateral world. Yeah, I think he means the opposite in which is great conflict. And the other two factors all through history have been acts of nature, droughts, floods and pandemics. And number four is technology technology changing and how they are coming together are the main forces behind this.
for example, there can't be imbalances anymore in that environment. Do you think that President Trump's tariffs are exacerbating what you are describing this complicated mix of challenges that the world is facing? Uh I I think it's just a function of how well they're handled. You know, it's a reality that it's a desire to bring in tax revenue from that.
It's a reality that we would like to build manufacturing and jobs here. This is a reality that's how that's done whether that's done in a practical way. I mean it's al he doesn't say the most important part which is where like Dalio is also clearly smart but he's also very dependent on China. So he cannot criticize the CCP openly.
The big part of these tariffs is like we just want to be decoupled from China or be less dependent on China. Today is the perfect example. On April 13th, China just paused all rare earth shipments to United States. They go on everything from this mouse to from mic probably the thing you're watching this on your phone, laptop, computer, tablet, all require rare earth minerals for one thing or another.
And China has a 90% monopoly on it. China controls 90% of the refinery refining. So rare earths are not really rare but the name when we first found them we put that name to it and the name has stuck. But what is rare is the refining for like refining very little of the rare earth. We produce like shitload of toxic water and no one wants to do this do that in your in our country like no developed country wants to do that and China is willing to do that.
So slowly we just offshored all the refining to China. Now they refined 90% of rare earth for the world and it's a very important thing. So it's good to get decoupled from that right now because demand is still there. US wants it, Europe wants it. Most countries want this and if they don't buy from China solely, other countries will start doing it.
Maybe Mexico, maybe countries in South America, maybe countries in Africa, they'll start doing it more and more. And this way we break apart Chinese monopoly and we're not doing that at a time when we're at war with China. Let's say if this monopoly had continued and China attacks Taiwan, we help Taiwan and then they shut off the rare earth, then we'll be kind of in a pickle cuz we'll be desperate to want rare earth.
And maybe since if we if we don't get it from some other place, maybe we'll give up Taiwan just to have the rare earth from China. So it's better to plan this ahead of time. Whether that's done in a stable way, whether that's done with quality negotiations in which that's a mutual problem, or whether that's done in a chaotic and disruptive way that produces great conflict makes all the difference in the world.
Based on what you're seeing right now, do you think that these tariffs are being carried out in a practical way or a chaotic way? I think we'll we'll see. So far, very disruptive. So far, very disruptive. Right. and and so we don't know what the numbers are but that could be part of a process right it depends where we are at the end of the 90 days because what was put there is like throwing rocks into the production system and no I mean as someone who supports the tariffs on China I don't think this was like a wellthoughtout plan I know uh Stephan Miran and secretary of treasury got based they did have a plan they wanted to put in tariffs but the number they were proposing was not taken by President Trump.
He just made up a number using trade deficit. Impacts are going would be enormous in terms of the efficiency of the whole world. Great cost. I want to ask you about something that's on a lot of people's minds. Your predictions for the future. And I want to start with the Rword. I know you think this is just a piece of it.
Of course, I'm talking about she means recession about a recession. Do you think it is likely that the United States will dip into a recession because of President Trump's tariffs? I I think that um right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well.
A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there. We always have those things. We have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem.
And when we talk about the dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that. We are having a profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is existing and we're having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history and this repeats over and over again.
So if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power, if you take those factors and look at the PA factors that those changes in the orders, the systems are very very disruptive. How that's handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession or it could be handled well.
Let's take the debt situation. Yeah, I'm sorry. Go ahead. Well, very very quickly because I want to be very specific about what you mean. You're saying worse than recession. You're saying this is reminiscent of the 1930s. We should tell our viewers you correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. What is your prediction for where the country is headed right now?
Right now we're at a juncture. Let's take the budget. It the budget deficit can be reduced to 3% of GDP. It's about it will be about 7%. If things are not changed if it could be reduced to about 3% of GDP and these trade the problem with the US budget is both parties love spending money. It's not like one party is spending other parties trying to counteract it.
They both love spending money. So, we actually need like changes to our laws to make sure we should try something like what Buffett suggested where we do this thing where you're not elected if the you can get reelected if the budget is more than this much and I think we'll have a solution. Then everyone will agree to cut things if their personal career is at stake.
Deficits and so on are managed in the right way. This could all be managed very well. I believe that members of Congress should take the pledge. what I call the 3% pledge that in one way or another that they will get that budget deficit down to that number. If they don't, we're going to have a supply demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession.
So can and just another scary part is like all this tariffs they are raising the bond yield. So that means that's the percentage we would have to pay if we refinance our debt. And sadly we have to refinance roughly 25% of our debt in June. So this coming June and over the next 12 months we have to refinance 33% of the total debt.
So I think US debt is yeah 36 trillion. So roughly 11 trillion is going to get refinanced in the next 12 months. And if the yield doesn't come out that means the interest payment that's already almost 10 11% of our budget is only going to go up. Just to follow up on that point, worse than a recession.
You're talking about the 1930s. What specifically are you warning of? Are you saying that it could be as bad as a depression? What's your biggest fear? The value of money. What is a storehold of wealth? That is a bond. In other words, one man's debt is another man's assets. Bond holders. And so we're going to be in a situation where if that storehold of wealth is in jeopardy because there's too much supply and demand and so on and we have a monetary inflation, we will have great disruptions and that that could be like the breakdown of monetary system 71.
It could be like 2008. It's going to be very severe I think. So, this is where it's kind of interesting cuz Ray Dalio is comparing like he's painting a very bleak picture, but if you listen to Jamie Diamond, he's saying it's likely not going to be even close to 2008. It's going to be a recession, but so far it's not going to be something that's like as bad as 2008.
Could be more severe than those if these other matters simultaneously occur. Imagine if we have a downturn politically and and and an international conflict. What's worstc case scenario that you're warning of? to be very specific to to be very specific the value the value of money uh internal conflict that is not the normal democracy as we know it and international conflict in a way that is highly disruptive to the world economy and could even be a military conflict just as these breakdowns have occurred heard before.
You know, we have a new order that began in 1945, a new monetary order and a new geopolitical order. And these go in cycles that can be measured. And I worry about the breakdown of that kind of an order, particularly since it doesn't need to happen because there are certain things that could be done in which this is better a better restructuring of these debts and actions taken.
So that takes me to my next question. You have this book, How Countries Go Broke, the big cycle. What is the solution here? Well, there are a series of solutions, but let's let's take the most important and we have one minute. One minute. Okay. 3% of GDP. They should do a much longer interview if they making time.
P bring that deficit down. It can be done in a bipartisan way the way it was done between 1991 and 98. I explained how that could be done. doing things together for the greater good and then internationally on all of these issues to um use American strength but to negotiate well to lay out ways in which bad conflict and inefficient policies don't create great disruptions but get us through this in an orderly way. All right, Bradalio, thank you so
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