Mohamed El-Erian: Markets in 2022 will look very different, investors need to apply fundamentals

요약 보기

2022년은 2021년과 크게 다를 것이라는 진단. 핵심 주장: 연준과 정부의 대규모 유동성·재정 지원이 예측 가능했던 2021년과 달리, 2022년에는 인플레이션 때문에 통화정책이 완화 일변도로 가기 어렵고 정치적 이유로 추가 재정 부양도 제한적일 것이라는 전망. 시장은 펀더멘털을 반영해 종목을 더 차별화해서 봐야 한다고 주장. 시장 반응: 기술주는 펀더멘털상 수요 둔화와 공급 차질·인플레이션에 상대적으로 강하지만, 최근 몇 년 상승폭이 커서 기술적 조정은 불가피하다고 봄. 지난주 나스닥 3% 하락을 기술적 조정으로 해석하고, 향후 몇 달간 여행·레저 등 경기민감 업종이 기술주보다 더 타격받을 것이라고 전망. 경제 전망: 가계 대차대조표는 정부 이전지출로 GDP의 15~16%에 해당하는 완충장치가 있어 건전하지만 그 완충이 침식되고 있음. 가장 큰 리스크는 내부 경기 약화보다 정책 실수, 특히 통화정책 실수. 골드만삭스의 1분기 GDP 하향 조정(BBB 법안 무산 가정)을 언급하며, 경제는 오미크론은 버틸 수 있지만 오미크론과 정책 실수가 겹치면 어렵다고 경고. 결론: 과거처럼 모든 하락을 매수하고 대안이 없다는 식의 전략은 통하지 않을 가능성이 크며, 종목 선별이 중요하다는 취지.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so is is this the right reaction both the fiscal and the monetary reaction to say okay we're not going to react this time obviously jay powell is looking at this differently because he thinks at this point it could really spike inflation if we react the same way we did in the past that this is more problematic which means you're not going to get the same playbook so it's certainly the right monetary policy reaction because we have inflation that's proven to be higher and more persistent than many expected and it's very difficult for the central banks to remain in uber stimulative mode when inflation is an issue on the fiscal side that's a political issue and you've been talking about it all morning that's really a political issue my view and i know that not everybody agrees with this is that the soft infrastructure is as important as the hard infrastructure in order to will increase labor force participation in order to increase the supply responsiveness and productivity of the economy but that's become irrelevant because of the politics joe brought up the point that maybe bbb becomes ppp you think that's an option or have we just tapped ourselves out and selves out with this yeah i don't think we're going to see much more fiscal and monetary action going forward and i think the marketplace has to get used to this it was easy to put aside all the economic concerns all the covert concerns all the geopolitical concerns because we had almost guaranteed injections of liquidity they were massive and they were predictable what is changing is you can no longer bet on that and now the market has to realize that they have to price in fundamentals and input and and they have to differentiate much more between names so this is going to be a very different year 2022 than 2021 was meaning you can't count on all these same old things that you should buy every dip that there is no alternative what does that mean for investors so that's going to be what's going to be tested is do you still have that conditioning when you don't have the support of predictable injections that are that help push the everything rally that's the big test as to whether the conditioning will persist it is already weaker we see this in how the market has been behaving and it's understandable because the fed is no longer there because of inflation the tech stocks are getting hit pretty hard today they've been the ones that have been punished the most last week the nasdaq was down three percent it was the biggest decliner is that the right play are they the ones who should be getting punished in this environment or should it be more the tourism stocks the airlines places where if you get hit hard and and there's nobody to back you up how big of a problem is that so from a fundamental perspective it shouldn't be the tech stocks okay they are most immune to both the demand side lower demand and also they're immune to the supply disruption and inflation so it shouldn't be them but the trouble is where they are starting from and the extent to which they have outperformed over the last couple of years and what we have seen happening it started small but it's starting to build that where there was a lot of fraud that has tended to come off first so i think it's just a technical adjustment but fundamentally the the tech stocks are in a better place to navigate the next few months than travel for example leisure that's going to get hit mohammed goldman sachs is lowering its gdp expectations for the first quarter based on the idea that bbb is not going to build back better bill is not going to get passed um what do you think happens to the economy in the near future let's say the first quarter maybe the first half and what do you think happens to the consumer so the underlying strength of the economy is still considerable balance sheets are still healthy and that's because we transferred 15 to 16 of gdp from the government to households that's an enormous buffer um but it's being eroded i think the bigger the big risk is not an internal weakening of the economy it's a policy mistake and the markets are us are worrying more about particularly a monetary policy mistake so you know left to its own the economy can navigate omicron because it has quite a bit of internal momentum what it cannot navigate is omicron plus a policy mistak