저자: 댄아이브스 · 한국인
요약 보기
AI 군비 경쟁은 4차 산업혁명의 초입이며, 엔비디아 중심 시장에 구글 TPU가 도전자로 떠올랐고 메타·애플·테슬라 모두 장기 AI 수혜주라는 낙관적 주장. [AI 칩 경쟁] 메타가 구글 TPU 수십억 달러 규모 구매 협상 보도. 엔비디아 칩 수급비 12대1(한 개 나오면 12개 기업이 대기). 앤트로픽과 구글 칩 100만 개 공급 계약, 시포트 J. 골드버그는 TPU 기술 입증으로 평가. 아이브스는 TPU가 엔비디아보다 3~4년 뒤처졌지만 실용적 대안으로 봄. 엔비디아 주가는 메타의 구글 칩 구매 소식에 오히려 하락. [AI 수요와 시장 규모] 아이브스가 아시아 출장에서 확인한 AI 수요 증가율 6개월간 30%(성장률 자체가 30% 빨라짐). 미국 기업 중 AI를 제대로 도입한 곳은 3%에 불과해 나머지 97%가 미개척. 현재는 100m 달리기 3m 지점이라는 비유. [버블 논쟁] 마이클 배리 등 과열·버블 우려 제기. 아이브스는 AI를 8~10년 장기 프로젝트로 보며 현재 3년차라고 주장. [B2B vs 소비자 AI] 현재 AI 투자의 대부분은 기업 간(B2B) 지출이며 소비자 AI는 아직 본격화 전. 소비자 시장이 폭발하면 성장 잠재력은 더 큼. [애플] iOS 기기 24억 대(아이폰 15억 대) 보유를 강점으로 제시. 기존 고객에게 AI 기능을 즉시 배포 가능. 아이브스는 AI가 애플 주당 75~100달러 가치를 더한다고 분석. 구글 제미나이와 협력 가능성 언급, 구글의 미 정부 반독점 소송 승리가 이를 가능케 한다고 평가. [메타] 최근 주가 고점 대비 약 20% 하락. 아이브스는 테이블을 치며 사야 할 주식이라고 강하게 주장(강력 매수). 주가 하락 원인은 저커버그의 AI 투자 확대로 단기 이익 감소 때문이나, 이는 미래 수익을 위한 계산된 투자라고 평가. 사용자 30억 명 기반으로 AI 광고·AI 어시스턴트 수익화 기대. [테슬라] 전기차보다 자율주행과 옵티머스 로봇이 핵심 가치. 올해 주가 부진에도 아이브스는 확신. 규제가 장벽이지만 점차 완화될 것으로 봄. 로보택시가 30~35개 도시에서 운행될 것이라 예측. 웨이모 등 경쟁사는 테슬라 대비 격이 낮다고 평가. 수백만 대 차량에서 수집되는 실시간 데이터가 진입장벽. [결론] 일시적 유행이 아니라 향후 수년간 이어질 대규모 4차 산업혁명이라는 낙관적 결론.
다듬은 글
Now, today we will be looking at the next battleground of Big Tech: the AI arms race. . Now, the topic we are going to delve into deeply today is... This is a very interesting analysis released by Davis of Wedbush Securities. We are going to examine the core of this AI revolution, which is currently completely shaking up the tech industry, by dividing it into six parts and looking at them one by one .
First, we will examine how the arms race surrounding AI chips is currently unfolding and how this serves as a signal heralding the beginning of the Fourth Industrial Revolution . We will also look into what kind of consumer AI strategy the giant corporation Apple has, and why Meta is making such a risky bet.
Finally, I will summarize how Tesla intends to transform its very identity through AI, and synthesize all of this to outline the big picture and outlook. yes. Then let's start right away with the first story . The war to dominate this AI era . The battlefield begins right here in the semiconductor chip that makes all of this possible .
Until now, it has been a market that Nvidia has practically monopolized. However, a very interesting change is beginning with the emergence of a new challenger in this market. Every story is bound to have a trigger . The beginning was none other than Is. Meta, so Facebook's parent company is known for Google's AI chip, the TPU.
News has emerged that negotiations worth billions of dollars are underway to purchase this . This is not just about buying and selling goods . It is a really powerful signal that the landscape of the AI hardware market could be completely turned upside down . The fact that they are trying to join hands with another giant called Google, like Meta, in a market where it was previously thought that NBD was the only answer .
Right here, today's story begins. Now, the current market structure is summarized exactly like this. On one side, there is an absolute powerhouse that needs no explanation . There is an NBI that is currently being criticized for having nothing to see in the AI revolution except for the morning . But the problem is, even if I want to buy it, I can't.
The supply is woefully insufficient. And on the other side, there is a newly emerging alternative . It is none other than Google's TPU (Tensor Processing Unit). This TPU is rapidly boosting its credibility by signing contracts with prominent companies like Enstrophic and even surpassing Meta. This is not simply a battle between first and second place; it signifies the start of a significant shift where cracks appear in the market dominance of a single company, revealing that there are other options available .
To understand just how chaotic this market is right now, this single number is all it takes . 12 to 1. This is the current supply and demand ratio of Nvidia chips analyzed by Davis . What I mean is... It means that if exactly one Nvidia chip is released on the market, as many as 12 companies will rush to buy it.
It makes no sense. Because of this extreme supply shortage, companies like Meta cannot just keep looking to Nvidia indefinitely. This is precisely why we must desperately find another path, like Google's TPU, somehow . The fact that Google is on the rise isn't just a rumor. Concrete results have already been achieved.
You know Enthropic, one of the key players in the AI industry. We signed a contract to supply as many as 1 million Google chips here . Seaport analyst J. Goldberg assessed that this properly proved that TPU technology is truly powerful . Think about it. The fact that a company like Anthropic, which builds cutting-edge AI models, uses Google chips in large quantities is tantamount to the market officially acknowledging that the chips are not just for testing but are fully usable in the actual field .
This single event completely changed the perception of Google TPUs . Now, but there is a very important point here. Denaives honestly admits it, too. You're saying that Google's TPU is technically about 3 to 4 years behind Nvidia. However, in certain situations, they add that this is good enough. What does this mean?
In short, it is not the best, but it is an excellent second-best book . For companies like Meta, whose development is on the verge of halting due to the immediate lack of Nvidia chips, this Google chip is like a sable in a drought . In the current AI arms race... It is much more important to quickly secure a usable weapon and head to the battlefield than to blindly insist on the highest-performing weapon and end up doing nothing .
However. Even though demand is exploding like this, on one side of the market, people are asking, "Isn't this too overheated ?" Isn't it a bubble? Voices of concern continue to be heard. Michael Burry, famous for his role as the protagonist in the movie The Big Short, is a prime example. This person continues to view NBD skeptically.
Well, after things like AI investment being too short-term or hardware becoming obsolete quickly. Actually, the market atmosphere is a bit like that . I heard that even Ibus was a bit surprised to see NBI's stock price actually drop when the news came out that Meta was buying Google chips . Rather than looking at the big picture of overflowing demand, the market initially flinched at the news that a competitor had emerged .
Now, regarding this chip war we've been talking about so far... In fact, this is merely the beginning of a much bigger story. From now on, let us draw the big picture of how this competition leads to the massive trend known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution , and why the enormous AI investment we are currently witnessing is still only in its early stages .
Just look at how wildly demand is increasing . Ibus checked it out firsthand while touring Asia and found that the demand for AI has increased by as much as 30% in just the last six months . It doesn't mean it's just steadily rising by 30%, but that the growth rate itself has become 30% faster. So, this isn't just a gentle hill; it's practically like a rocket exploding .
This is very clear evidence that the market is not washing away, but rather burning fiercely . And you will be truly surprised to see how much room there is left for future growth . How many companies in the entire U.S. do you think have started properly adopting and using AI by now ? It is only 3%.
3%. That means the remaining 97% haven't even started yet . Europe and Asia are much better than this. So, all this news and all these investments we are hearing right now... Actually, it’s like having only run 3 meters in a 100-meter race . When you consider the enormous 97% market that will open up in the future, you can imagine just how early this revolution is .
And there is one more thing we absolutely need to know here . You know all this astronomical amount of money being poured into AI right now . Almost all of this is money spent by companies. It's a B2B market . They are investing to increase their work efficiency or create new services . AI that ordinary consumers like us use every day.
So, the consumer AI revolution hasn't even properly started yet . If the corporate market alone is at this level now, once the consumer market fully explodes later, the rapid growth potential will be truly hard to imagine . We need to view all of this with a longer-term perspective. Dan Ives views this AI revolution as a long-term project spanning 8 to 10 years .
And where are we now ? It means I'm only in my third year . I am just in my third year of a 10-year marathon . So, this is n't a fleeting trend or bubble that will disappear, but a massive change just like how the internet changed the world . We are truly at the very beginning of this tremendous change.
So, shall we talk about Apple, the sleeping giant quietly waiting for its time ? Up until now, it seemed like Apple was just watching from the sidelines in the AI competition . However, the truth is that they may have finished all preparations to dominate this consumer AI market in one fell swoop .
Do you know what Apple has that is truly scary? This is exactly it. With this powerful ecosystem, there are 2.4 billion iOS devices installed worldwide. Of those, the iPhone alone accounts for 1.5 billion units. This doesn't just mean there are many users; it means they have the largest consumer kingdom on Earth.
If Apple sets its mind to it, it can instantly spread any AI service to billions of people with the push of a button . And you can make money right away . You don't need to struggle to gather users like other companies. You just have to tell your existing loyal customers, "Here comes the new AI feature ." This is Apple's true power.
And this seed naturally leads to money, that is, stock prices. Dan Ivos analyzes that AI will add $75 to as much as $100 in value per share to Apple's stock. Adding this much value to the stock price of a giant company like Apple is a truly enormous amount of money. So, the point is that AI is not just a nice feature to have, but a game changer that could completely rewrite the value of the company Apple itself .
So, what exactly is Apple preparing ? Ives' analysis is a bit unexpected. The point is that Apple is not acquiring a mediocre AI company, but is taking a big-scale approach and joining forces with Google's Jaminai . It amounts to equivalence with the enemy . In particular, I think Google's recent victory in a lawsuit against the U.S.
government played a major role in making this move possible. This can be seen as more than just technical cooperation between two companies; it is a massive strategic plan for two giants, having overcome the major hurdle of regulation, to jointly dominate the consumer AI market . Now, this time it's Meta.
Many people were worried because the stock price has dropped quite a bit recently . However, Danis actually assesses that Meta pouring money into the game right now is a really smart move in the long run . Let's take a look at the inside story of why that is the case . Let's address this first. Why did Meta's stock price, which was doing so well, suddenly drop nearly 20% from its peak?
What on earth was the market so worried about? The market is worried like this, but Denaives says the exact opposite. Very strongly. He describes metal as a stock you have to buy while banging on the table . It's called a table foundry. This is the strongest expression an analyst can use . The current drop in stock prices is not something to worry about; rather, it is an opportunity for me to buy at a low price.
The reason the stock price fell is actually simple. This is because Mark Zuckerberg significantly increased his investment capital, stating that he needed to spend more money to win the AI war . Naturally, company profits will decrease in the short term. The market disliked that. However, upon seeing this, Ives highly praises it, saying that this is exactly what an exhibition CEO looks like.
Saving money is important in times of peace, but in a war situation like this where the company's future is at stake, a true leader is someone who invests boldly for the future, even if it means suffering immediate losses . Then where do they plan to spend all this massive amount of money? There is only one goal.
Meta's 3 billion users. They intend to make money in earnest through AI in this huge kingdom . In the next few years, that is. The money being poured in now is a process of sowing seeds to earn much more money later through things like AI advertising or AI assistants . This means that the immediate increase in costs is a very calculated investment for enormous future profits .
Now, let's switch the focus and go to Tesla . Many people think of Tesla as just a company that makes electric cars . However, according to this analysis, that is only a very small part of Tesla. Tesla's true value lies in its electric vehicles, and the fact that this company is no longer just a simple car company.
Actually, Tesla's stock price has been a bit sluggish this year. Even so, Ibus is very confident. The highlight of the story of Tesla, the most important chapter, hasn't even begun yet . What is that exactly? It's autonomous driving and the Optimus robot. In other words, this means that Tesla's future value depends not on how many cars it sells, but on how much it changes the world with its AI technology.
Of course, there is a major obstacle to overcome for such a future to come. It is precisely regulation. Because nothing can be done without the government's permission . However, Ibus believes that this regulatory barrier will also gradually crumble. In particular, regarding robotaxis, there are even very specific predictions that we will soon see Tesla's robot taxis roaming around in 30 to 35 cities .
Then, wouldn't other autonomous driving companies, such as those with similar appearances, be able to compete? Ives is very firm. Compared to Tesla's massive plans, some even say that competitors like Waymo are at the level of a fifth tier that would simply disappear if rounded up. That shows just how overwhelmingly they view Tesla's technological capabilities .
This is because Tesla is already collecting real-time data from millions of cars on the road . The quantity and quality of this data have created an insurmountable barrier that other companies simply cannot match . yes. great. So, let's gather everything discussed so far to summarize the situation in this complex AI battlefield at a glance and examine the future outlook .
Now, if you look at this table, the key point of today's story is perfectly summarized. First off, NV Dia is still the king of this market. That concludes the explanation for the 12 to 1 demand ratio. However, Google, aiming to stop that dominance, has emerged as a powerful challenger backed by Meta and Entropic.
Apple, which had been quiet, is preparing to dominate the consumer AI market with the weapon of 2.4 billion units . Meta, whose stock price had been fluctuating . It is truly a strong long-term buy stock that invests boldly in the future, trusting in its 3 billion users. Finally, Tesla is shedding the shell of a car company and dreaming of becoming a full-fledged AI enterprise with Optimus robots and robotaxis .
If you put these pictures together, there is only one conclusion. This is not a passing fad, but a massive Fourth Industrial Revolution that will continue for the next few years . Now, the curtain has risen on the Fourth Industrial Revolution . What do you think? Among the bets of these giants we examined today, which one will change our world the most ?
Is it the power of the chip that moves the world ? Is it the power of a platform connecting billions ? Or is it the power of autonomous driving that makes it do everything on its own? I think it is a question worth thinking deeply about at least once. solely .
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