저자: SchenkFinancial진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼(Pershing Square) 헤지펀드의 2020년 신용파생상품 헤지 성과(수주 만에 9,500% 수익)를 소개하고, 그의 포트폴리오(가정용품·가전, 외식·프랜차이즈 등 방어적 종목)를 따라 만든 위키폴리오를 설명하는 영상. 진행자는 롱 기조를 유지하면서 하락 헤지(ShortDAX x2 ETF 10%)로 낙폭을 줄이겠다고 밝힘. 특정 대상 자산(삼성전자, 금, 나스닥 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 애크먼 포트폴리오 소개 헤지펀드 매니저 빌 애크먼의 2020년 신용파생상품 매입으로 큰 수익을 냈다고 언급. 포트폴리오는 바이오 등 고위험 종목이 아닌 비교적 안정적인 종목 중심이라고 설명. 최대 비중은 가정용품·가전 섹터(방어주)이며, 호텔·스타벅스 등도 언급. 외식·프랜차이즈 종목 언급 외식 수요 변화로 패스트푸드(Dreyfus, Tim Hortons, Papa John's 등) 수혜 가능성 언급. 여러 기업을 분산 보유해 한 기업 부진을 상쇄한다는 논리. 포트폴리오 재현 및 전략 진행자가 해당 포트폴리오를 위키폴리오로 거의 동일 비중 복제. 전체의 10%를 ShortDAX x2 ETF로 헤지해 낙폭 축소 목적. 장기적으로는 강세(bullish) 견해이나 등락 완화를 중시. 리스크 및 기타 헤지 없이 대부분 투자하는 일반 투자자와 달리 방어 장치를 추가했다고 설명. 위키폴리오는 신규 상품으로 아직 성과 판단 이르다고 언급. 출연자 전망 요약 단기 가격 방향 예측 없음, 장기 강세 기조만 제시.
다듬은 글
Die Anweisung lautet, den Text ins Deutsche zu bringen? Nein, meine Aufgabe ist es, das Transkript zu bereinigen. Der Text ist jedoch auf Englisch, und die Vorgabe lautet, Englisch beizubehalten und nicht zu übersetzen. Ich bereinige es daher auf Englisch.
Welcome to the new video from Schenck Financial. Today we're talking about a big name: a hedge fund manager who should have been well known since the beginning of the year, because he achieved an extremely impressive performance of 9,500 percent within just a few weeks. He reached his goal by buying special credit derivatives.
He did this to protect his portfolio against the crisis, and it was clearly successful. What are credit derivatives? They are, so to speak, securities that allow investors to protect themselves against companies' payment difficulties. He took advantage of this protection, and it paid off brilliantly for him.
This is the portfolio of Pershing Square Capital Management, his hedge fund. We can see right away that there are no highly speculative, high-risk hot stocks from the biotech sector or anything of that kind. These are more accessible stocks. But the largest position is in the home goods and household appliances sector, so really defensive, conservative stocks.
Here he held shares in the hotel industry, Starbucks, and so on. Even his specialty, cheap stocks, you saw how nice the figures looked from 2010 to 2020. Ackman wants to stay in this industry; he is looking for the next winner there, because he simply has a good track record. So what works, we don't want to change.
Here it is described in more detail. In May the topic was very much in focus, which is why it is also described nicely here: if people can't work in a restaurant, they take the alternative. That would be, for example, Dreyfus in fast-food restaurants. Companies like Burger King, which we see here as part of Restaurant Brands, benefit from this.
Tim Hortons is involved, Papa John's is involved. Nice development, both from Popeyes. Wendy's has stagnated somewhat in recent years, but the nice thing is that diversification balances everything out. We hold all three companies. That means if two of them do well, it's good for us that we're invested in them.
So, very well known. The stock isn't exactly cheap if you look at the price, but the numbers are nice: 14.8 percent revenue growth in the strategic performance area, and even 90 percent growth in the digital area, plus 140 new restaurants in operational performance. As far as operational performance figures go, these are nice, stable figures.
Here is some more from MarketScreener, this is what's happening with the stocks. I already mentioned it earlier. It deals with DIY products and household appliances. They are listed in the S&P 100 and are also among the largest companies in the United States. They hold 63 of the positions, so quite impressive.
We have nice revenue growth, nice operating profit, and nice net profit in recent years. Both in recent years and in the estimates, the numbers are really nice. He chose good stocks, good values, because he knows what he's doing.
There's a nice video on YouTube where he talks about the company. It's about 40 minutes long and really very worth watching, though I wouldn't recommend it to everyone. He was talking about a general company, really about the city of Le Mans, so he covered everything from the basics to the details and also mentioned Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett's advice, as is well known, is to invest in what you know. Ackman follows this advice very closely, which you can see very well in his portfolio.
I myself have also adopted this portfolio, a Wikifolio, which is still very early and inspired by Ackman. Here you can also see the values. I have adopted them more or less one-to-one with the same weighting.
I also hold an ETF that makes up ten percent of the portfolio. With a ten percent weighting, that is a ShortDAX x2 ETF. It's not included because of who I am; it's included because I simply want to reduce the drawdown. I'm bullish, long-term bullish, always good. But in the long term I want a smaller downside and a nice, steady line upward. Even if it sometimes costs a little performance, that is definitely an advantage when things get turbulent. The stock market landscape is a great place to profit, sometimes from falling prices. Then you have the hedge, the dollar isn't so high, and you get a nice steep upward curve.
I didn't use any protection, because most people, and almost all people, don't have any. I just wanted to build a stock portfolio, but I wanted to try something different. I wanted to use his ideas as inspiration, and so far it looks quite good. We're still very young. This woman wanted to say, it's actually a Wikifolio, a certificate that will be traded on the stock exchange after the pre-registration phase. It's still very new, so you can't judge the performance yet, but you can already see a little of where the journey might lead. Pre-registrations are very welcome. I'm happy about every single pre-registration.
See you next time. Until then, thank you very much for your attention and have a nice day.
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