저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 식품 아닌 놀이공원 주식 중 Cedar Fair(FUN)를 유지하고, Six Flags(SIX)는 피하라는 입장. 이 영상은 2019년 10월 시점 놀이공원 두 종목을 비교한다. 과거 8월 추천(Cedar Fair 매수, Six Flags 회피)은 이후 성과가 좋았다는 설명이다. 성과 배경: Cedar Fair는 9월 초 연간 누적 순매출 11.2억 달러(전년比 +8%), 방문객 110만 명 증가, 공원 1인당 지출 약 3% 증가 등 호실적 프리뷰를 냈다. 8월 실적도 양호했다. 시장 환경: 고배당 가치주로의 순환매가 있었고, 유틸리티주가 다우에서 강세였다. Cedar Fair는 배당형 자산 성격이 강하다. Six Flags: 애널리스트 긍정 보고서가 나왔으나 8월 실적이 혼조였다. 배당수익률은 6.7%대, Cedar Fair는 6.4%대로 언급되며 Cedar Fair의 수익률 우위는 줄었다. 인수 제안: Six Flags가 Cedar Fair에 약 44억 달러(주당 약 70달러, 대부분 주식+소액 현금) 인수 제안. Cedar Fair는 너무 낮다며 거절하고 주가가 하락했다. 세금 혜택 MLP 구조 보상이 부족하다는 주장. 애널리스트 의견 분분: Wells Fargo는 Six Flags 부채 부담과 가격 과다를 지적, KeyBank는 전략적 합리성을 인정하나 주당 85달러 이상 필요할 수 있다고 봤다. 블랙스톤의 Great Wolf 인수(1.35→29억 달러 가치) 같은 업계 M&A 흐름도 언급. 밸류에이션: 두 종목 모두 P/E 약 16배 수준. 주가는 Cedar Fair 약 52달러(8월 추천 시점)에서 조정. 출연자 전망(요약): Cedar Fair 유지 또는 소액 매수 후 조정 시 추가 매수 고려. Six Flags는 추격 매수 비추천, 인수 프리미엄 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 인수 재협상 가능성은 열어둠. 리스크: 인수 불발 시 주가 하방, Six Flags 부채 부담, 경기 둔화 시 놀이공원 수요 감소, MLP 구조 변화 가능성.
다듬은 글
two months ago right here we ran a piece comparing the two big amusement park chains Six Flags and Cedar Fair even though Six Flags is in many ways the better operator I told you to stick with Cedar Fair the stop was cheaper and it had a higher yield that's a nice combination now initially that looked like a good call from August 19th September 30th Cedar Fair rally eleven percent while six fights decline by eleven percent but then last Wednesday it became accidentally brilliant when it was important to Sisyphus have made a cash and stock takeover bid for Cedar Fair stop caught fire on the news but then Cedar Fair shot them down and pulled back all right so what deck is really going on here with these two theme parks that we've talked about an endlessly and what are you supposed to do with the stocks and when we talk about a Madison because we're always looking for high yield and high quality and Cedar fares giving us that okay before we get to the takeover you need to understand why Cedar Fair has spent the last couple months outperforming Six Flags all right just very nice run isn't it right after Labor Day weekend Cedar Fair released its year to date only net preliminary net revenue numbers there fantastic it's up eight percent year over year to a record 1.12 billion company up 1.1 million visitors parks up six percent you're nice huh within Park per capita spending about three percent Cedar Fair had just reported a solid quarter in August and then a little over month ago we learned that the company's maintaining its momentum plus it didn't hurt that we got a huge rotation out of gross stocks into value names with high dividend don't forget that was the same period that the utility stocks became the best performers in the Dow and this is a read remember we did the piece last week about the reefs being the second best it's amazing I'm not in the doubt in the S&P I mean but this is a member function of their bond proxy and so to speak what about six flex why didn't know tation help them finally enough we've gotten a series of positive analyst reports about these guys the management team now with berenberg a boutique research firm it's not a terrific story but the last time the cart reported at the beginning of August the numbers were let's just say mixed and I think that made it much harder to own during a period of intense turmoil for the averages on top of that Cedar Fair was cheaper with a bigger dividend if you wanted to buy an amusement parks for the income six fives was not the way to go now those CFS doctors Ward higher while six flights back has broken down at these level six flights has a higher yield and is the cheaper stock when the other in Cedar Fair is a big takeover target paying on its back it's a $57 stock come you already know that six fives is willing to pay at least seven years sheriff for this one so last Wednesday reuters reported that six flags had come to Cedar Fair with it offer although apparently wasn't one of those Luca Luca Brasi style you can't refuse enforcement Godfather this story broke immediately after we learned that Blackstone that's a gigantic private equity firm had just taken a 65 percent stake in the privately held Great Wolf Resorts that's another amusement park play some of it look like we were dealing with a wave of consolidation and you were committing the industry and those deals had premium valuations get this the deal values Great Wolf at 2.9 billion and its current owner bought the whole darn thing for 1.35 billion just four and a half years ago that's remarkable how much this businesses got on fire but almost from the moment the Six Flags Cedar Fair story broke the analyst community divided against itself with some firms arguing the deal made sense and others arguing that was incredibly foolish Wells Fargo released two note pointing out the six lights would need to issue an enormous amount of equity to keep its balance sheet from getting to Mardin debt and the price tag would likely be way too high the very next day Key Bank publishes a piece claiming the merger make strategic sense Six Flags the Cedar Fair can combine forces to become a regional amusement park behemoth with a ton of opportunities for cost cutting however even in this analyst who likes the general idea thinks the time he's bad scented by Cedar Fair here he thinks it's wise should have waited for a recession no yeah where they'll be able to pick that up for a lot less at the same time ever it was scrambling to figure out what Cedar Fair might be worth now that we need to consider it as a viable takeover target I've seen a pretty wide range from 68 to as much as 90 dollars a share so Cedar Fair well let's just say it could really ramp come Friday Wells Fargo tells us that they met with cedar fares management and they're not looking to sell a few hours later Reuters reports the Cedar Fair actually we're injected a 4.4 billion dollar offer from six plies that's about a $70 share mostly in stock but with a small cash component the problem let me read you this bit from the Reuter Pease quote Cedar Fair responded the Six Flags bid was too low not least because it did not compensate Cedar Fair shareholders for giving up on the company's tax advantaged public putt bit advantageous publicly-traded partnership remember I told that these are REITs see Cedar Fair is a master limited partnership rather than ordinary C Corp which means they can they pay out the bulk of their earnings as dividends or distributions without getting hit with any corporate income tax that's why it's so advantageous it's a good point if six legs really wants to buy Cedar Fair they need to offer a much larger premium and I don't think they can afford it Key Bank says they might need to pay eighty five dollars a share and that seems prohibitive to me especially since six flights already has a debt light Laden balance sheet either way though a lot has changed for the amusement park stock since I told you to buy Cedar Fair at fifty two bucks in August although the stock has given up most of its gains since the deal news broke six legs are still down substantially though stocks been hammered at these levels both Cedar Fair and seer and six flags sell for about 16 times sensors or assessments meanwhile six flags now sports a notoriously beat IgE six point seven percent yield cedar floors paying you 6.4 when I recommend a/c repair in August it was four turns cheaper than six lives and a shield was 120 basis points larger rather than 30 basis points smaller so what do you do now it was right to buy Cedar Fair and forget about six flags in August that's still the case I think it has become a more complicated choice someone said was no brainer go to Cedar Fair two months ago with the takeover now presumably off the table I can easily see six flies bouncing a few bucks here from 48 and change may be the low 50s but unless you're a traitor it's just not worth trying to chase that kind of move as an investor I say stick with Cedar Fair simple f-u-n why because they take over bid for it just all does this confirm what I originally thought about these two names it's a not so tacit admission from six flies that Cedar Fair is interactive asset throw in debates $10 a share this talk must be a steal down here 57 plus the fact that six fives is willing to do this as a mostly stock based transaction you can view that as an admission that their stock is overvalued otherwise they would have range to borrow money or for more cash bottom line here even after the shake-up in the amusement park space I think buying six flies here is throwing good money after bad if you already own Cedar Fair I'd stick with it if you don't on it hey I recommend putting a small position here maybe waiting for a pullback nice nice dividend and who knows maybe one day I take over bid stick with Kramer coming up not not rain rain to this dock connect your business and help you bring in the returns Kramer comes knocking with ringcentral when mad money returns
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