저자: Erichsen · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오가 현재를 AI 버블로 보지만 붕괴 예언이 아니라 올바른 자산에 투자하라는 입장이라고 소개. 버블 단계 평가(10점 만점 중 10 미달), 부채·양극화·지정학 요인에 따른 장기 사이클론 2027~2028년 전후 주의 언급. 본인은 활동 포트폴리오에서 현금 약 40% 유지, 장기 포트폴리오는 업종 분산이 핵심이라 주장. 달리오 포트폴리오 예시(금 5~15%, 비트코인 소량)와 상위 보유 종목(S&P500 ETF, 아마존, 엔비디아, 알파벳, 브로드컴, 마이크론, 마이크로소프트, TSMC 등)을 언급하며 상세 리포트 예고.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio is anything but a crash prophet, which makes it all the more interesting when he says we are in an AI bubble. Because he 's not a crash prophet, he doesn't say, "Sell everything now , it will end badly," but rather, he says, "You can and should be invested, but in the right assets." And in this video, I'll show you specifically, with names, stocks, and so on, how Ray Dalio is currently invested and what he considers a sensible portfolio.
Let's get started . I warmly welcome you and hope you are all well. Many of you are part of the return specialists group, and you're probably there because you want to know what I'm doing in the active portfolio. For 25 years now, I started as a trader, uh, I've been buying and selling stocks very regularly.
This means that, due to the level of activity, these positions repeatedly come into focus because they are discussed much more frequently, and there is simply more to discuss when buying, selling, or setting a stop-loss order . But the long-term portfolio also plays a major role for me. My active portfolio is probably a bit larger than most people's, and by that I mean the percentage size, simply because I originally come from trading .
It's probably not the normal way for many private investors, but that's why I do it this way; this is not a recommendation. However, what's important, also for me in my private stock investments, is the long-term portfolio, and that's why I want to address the long-term investors among you today . A large, important role.
These long-term portfolios are simply too speculative for at least some, and I fear many, private investors, because they are not diversified enough. And that's why I'll be showing you on Wednesday, I don't even know if I've done that before , I'd have to think about it , well, with over 1000 videos, that's theoretically possible.
I want to show you what my portfolio looks like, my long-term portfolio. So, on Wednesday I'll show you the percentages of which sectors I'm invested in . If you don't want to miss this video, and I do n't think you do, then it's best to subscribe to the channel now and don't forget to turn on the alarm function, because then you'll get a message when the next video is uploaded on Wednesday.
And as I said, this is about my portfolio allocation. So, take advantage of the opportunity. First and foremost, it is important to be diversified in a long-term portfolio. And I'm about to show you how Ray Dalio is invested. We'll start by talking about what he recently said about this AI bubble. But I'd like to share the conclusion with you right at the end, right at the beginning, in case anyone says, "I can only endure three minutes," then take that into account .
Take a look at this chart of the S&P 500, or rather of an ETF tracking it, over the last few years since 2008. And who would claim that there haven't been any crises in the world during this time ? I'll just take the large ones for now. The huge financial crisis of 2008, 2009 can be seen here, followed by the corresponding recovery.
We had the Euro debt crisis. The figures from 2010 to about 2012 can be seen here, so in percentage terms that was quite a significant correction. It's been over ten years for Hans too . Then we mustn't forget 2020, when Covid brought the world to a standstill. For a year and a half, with occasional interruptions.
This is the correction we are seeing here. Then there was the major inflation crisis here from 2021 to 2023. This is the correction. Well, and from 2022 to the present day we have the war in Ukraine and the resulting, let's call it, energy crisis. And that's what the market has made of it, and I know there are many who say, yes, haha, but that was also solved with a lot of money here and there, and the mountains of debt have increased.
The returns are entirely real. The Basement Trade Asset Price Inflation, that's what you can see in it. From this, one can conclude that yes, now would be the time, but the hyperscalers are a bit too heavily invested. I should just get out of the car . Really? Ray Dalio says. For him, it's an AI bubble.
He also believes that we are in that situation. He says this is the biggest investment bubble in American history, but he immediately emphasizes such things . A blistering condition. It 's not a question of yes or no, i.e., whether I'm in or not in, but rather... At what point in this bubble formation are we?
And he says there are some analysts for him, and the man has a few, he is officially no longer with Bridgewater, which means he still has a strong influence on what happens there. There are a few analysts sitting there. Now you could say they're all dumber than me. Fair Point. Perhaps some are smarter and say that we cannot time the end of such a bubble formation, and that something else is coming, so we will now look at its allocation .
We're not even trying. We set up a portfolio with which we can say, okay, there will be a correction, but we are very happy to continue investing here. Blistering is the sign he observes. Firstly, sharply rising prices, where investors lose sight of the price itself and only look at future fantasies.
Yes, we're in there. I would say that on a scale of 1 to 10, we haven't reached 10 yet . Secondly, purchases financed by credit . Indirectly perhaps, if we consider that the hyperscalers, with their large cash flows, now tap into the credit market – they didn't need to in the past, but yes, they do .
But it ca n't be compared to the dot-com bubble, as I've already shown here, because they earn an insane amount of money and spend even more. Moreover, it is much more conservative than many claim, who only focus on increasing these capex expenditures. For example, when you look at how conservatively companies like Alphabet or Amazon are written off.
Amazon says we expect our data centers to have a cycle of maybe [snort] 4 to 5 years. After 2 years, we've recouped our investment. What comes after that is making money. This isn't all just pure fantasy, just a circular business. Yes, that too, but I don't see how this implies that things can only go downhill from here.
Ray Dalio doesn't see it either, by the way . And then, as a third point, he says that very often in a later phase of the bubble you find many market participants who are invested in overleveraged index products. At least as far as the chip sector is concerned. Yes, we saw that, especially in the Kospi, and accordingly, it initially corrected sharply.
Let's take a look at the Kospi, what did it do last? Yes, there was a significant drop, and then there was also a significant recovery. Yes, and that's what it looks like when an index rises so steeply, and perhaps a correction will follow that continues for a while longer; to conclude from that that this is the end of it is more or less a shot in the dark.
And in doing so, as I said, I am not contradicting the idea of bubble formation. I disagree with the idea, but it's over now. Why? Well, as you can see , the shares are now under pressure. That's simply not enough to say goodbye to the market. From Ray Dalio's point of view, there is a mechanism by which such a bubble bursts, namely he makes the simple but fundamental distinction between wealth and money.
You ca n't spend wealth; if a stock rises, the owner becomes richer on paper and can then use this position as security for new loans. We are seeing this to some extent, but not yet, not nearly to the extent seen in past bubbles. There haven't been that many since the turn of the millennium, but there have been some.
And that creates a self- reinforcing cycle. And then it takes a trigger to make the whole thing burst. In most cases, sharply rising interest rates are the trigger. So. The USA has always, and the American citizen has always, consumed more, but not to excess at the moment. Then there is something else, but I do n't want to elaborate on that too much here.
There is a great video by Ray Dalio about the cycles, How the Economy Works, How the Economic Machine Works. I'll show it to you here; I'll have found it by then. There's also a great video in German; watching it for 30 minutes is a must . I have no collaboration whatsoever with Ray Dalio, but that explains it very well.
A debt burden that grows over decades until debt servicing overwhelms the ability to act. The growing gap between rich and poor is clearly visible. This in turn leads to politics that drift more to the extremes, to the left and right, making compromises increasingly difficult. I also have the feeling that we are moving into this time, or at least into this time.
Whether we have already reached the peak is something one would hope for , but probably not. And then there is geopolitical shifting. Most people will think, oh yes, that fits with today's times. A previously dominant power, namely the USA, can no longer enforce its order or its power across the entire world in the same way as it could in the past.
Uh, there are more conflicts, and these three forces – debt, internal conflict, and external conflict – then occur together and cause a bubble to burst. And within this large cycle there are smaller cycles: recession, unemployment, monetary easing, recovery, prosperity, overheating, rising inflation, tightening and another recession.
From Ray Dalio's point of view, every six to nine years. If one were to look at it that way, the starting point is of course always relevant, then one would say that somewhere in the transition between 2027 and 2028 one should perhaps be careful, but again, that's plus or minus three years, that's not suitable for timing.
And accordingly, the bubble might still have some potential to rise. That's exactly my expectation, that we have n't seen the final highlight yet. He also talks about AI. AI will bring many winners , but also many losers. For him, the winners in the end are the investors with the ideas that replace work, whether one likes it or not.
He points out that the share of company revenue tied to labor is decreasing significantly, while the share going to the owners is increasing significantly. The 10 % richest households hold almost 90% of the shares. That in itself already creates more excitement. So now, from Ray Dalio's point of view, the question is how investors should behave.
It would be very easy to say, and that's what the crash prophets do, and that's what I criticize them for , because they don't explicitly say, sell your stocks, but of course they say, do it this way or only buy gold or protect yourself. They do n't say it outright, but that's exactly what it triggers in many people.
Cash is trash, that saying also comes from Ray Dalio, because with cash, even if you get three or four percent for it , at the end of the day after real inflation we are still talking about a devaluation of assets. And therefore, from his perspective, it's about being invested correctly. And now let's take a look at this; it's roughly what I've compiled.
I can of course look at the 13F filings from Bridgewater. So this is the official hedge fund that Ray Dalio founded. This is diversification across asset classes and sectors. An illustrative allocation based on Ray Dalio's principles. The values we see above are shown here; I'll show you the individual values in a moment.
Furthermore, I want to show you A) how successful or unsuccessful Bridgewater Associates have been with this strategy over the years, and B) I will simply give you all the stocks that Ray Dalio or Bridgewater Associates has invested in, in the report on Wednesday. The complete list and track record of Ray Dalio.
You can look forward to it . If you want to look forward to it, you need to sign up for the report, if you haven't already . You can find the link here in the show notes or you can go directly to www.las-eriksen.de. You'll be surprised, especially at the lower rankings, by the stocks that appear there.
That much I can say. This is an example of the diversification across asset classes and sectors at Bridgewater Associates. Included here down below . He doesn't specify how much gold he has. He says he would invest 5 to 15% in gold. He views Bitcoin somewhat more critically. In some posts he said he personally had 1%.
He could also justify 5% . Anything beyond that would be beyond his control due to quantum computers and so on, and government access – I'm not entirely sure how he assesses wallet technology – but for him, gold and Bitcoin have more or less the same function, with gold, and this is probably true, simply being the more conservative, the more conservative hard money, if you will.
That doesn't quite match my personal allocation, but as I said, I'll show you that on Wednesday. Oh, yes, here's a little preview. These are the largest stock positions as of March 31, 2026. This means he is included in the S&P 500 itself . He has an iShares Core S&P 500. Those two alone account for almost 20%, yes, even slightly more than 20%.
Largest single position: Amazon. Amazon shareholders will be happy, as we have been among the yield specialists since 2016. Nvidia, Dauner will be here any minute. Yeah, we should have bought those back in 2016, right? Alphabet's in there, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, GE, Vanova, TSMC. I had just bought it, TSMC.
I do n't know if it's included in the correction; I can't say for sure. Ah, no, if he had them in March, that was before the correction. However, they have also risen by then. So, here you can find some values; the complete list, with, I think, 37 or 38 values, as I said, will be in the report on Wednesday.
Let me summarize the conclusion once more . Maintaining a cash position is an integral part of active trading. In our case, it should currently be just under 40%. And that could change next week. Yes, I have a few positions that I would like to expand into now, but I need certain signals. Active trading, there's one thing: it's a discipline in its own right, with its own rules.
Cash is part of it because, inevitably, you scale in and scale out; you get stopped out at a profit, and sometimes at a loss. A cash position is part of that. In the long term, if someone says, "I need 5 or 10% for house and home and everything else ." That's a different question. That then becomes a question of personal household income.
But then, to time your long-term portfolio , I can only repeat myself, you have to be right twice, once when exiting and once when re-entering. And therefore, that would not be my recommendation. And as boring as it may be, diversification across industries and sectors is the be-all and end-all in a long-term portfolio.
Our dividend portfolio at AS reached a new all-time high last week and the week before. Why? Because so much money flowed out of speculation over two weeks, and so much money flowed into value stocks, which are many value stocks . Yes, it can only be repeated. It makes sense not to invest in stocks that you think will rise next week or the week after.
So, that's it for today. Remember to subscribe to the channel. I'll show you my portfolio on Wednesday. And until then, I wish you all the best, have a nice evening and bye.
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