저자: 캐시우드 · 한국인
요약 보기
아크 인베스트먼트가 2031년까지 테슬라 목표주가를 제시한 리포트를 소개하는 영상이다. 리포트 시나리오: 강세 5,000달러, 기본 4,400달러, 약세 3,300달러로 제시되었다. 현재 주가는 약 368달러 수준으로 언급되었다. 근거 수치: 2031년 매출 약 1.44조 달러, 시가총액 약 17조 달러, 매출총이익률 68%, 영업이익률 61%를 전제로 한다. 로보택시 약 800만~1,100만 대, 옵티머스 로봇 약 100만 대 판매를 가정한다. 사업부 비중: 2031년 기업가치 기준 로보택시 약 81%, 옵티머스 약 14%, 에너지 2%, 전기차 3% 수준으로 추정된다. 스페이스X 합병 가능성: 테슬라와 스페이스X가 향후 5년 내 합병할 가능성을 모델에 반영했으며, 합산 2031년 매출 3.8조 달러, 영업이익 2.7조 달러로 제시되었다. 리스크: 규제 지연, 예상치 못한 전염병 등 외부 변수로 진행이 더 느려질 수 있다고 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 주가 상승은 단계적으로 오지 않고 급등할 수 있으며, 연말 600달러 돌파를 기대한다는 입장이다. 현재 답답함이 있더라도 인내가 필요하다고 강조했다. 영상은 광고성 증권 아카데미 홍보로 마무리된다.
다듬은 글
Yes. hello. This is Director Kim's insight. Asse Tetla's stock price rose slightly. And now, Cathie Wood's Arc Investments has released a report with forecasts for the target stock price through 2031. Until then, the target price was set at $5,000 for the bull case and $4,400 for the intermediate base value .
I will analyze Ark Investment's report in detail to see if it will actually turn out to be about 12 or 13 times the current value. Now, Tesla's stock price closed at $368 yesterday, up 3.76%. I am rooting for you to reach $600 by the end of the year. Arcint predicted that Tesla's stock price would reach approximately $4,400 by 2031.
We calculated the results using Montega's simulation values. I distinguished between bull cases and bare cases. And we projected the basic expected stock price based on the median . From here, in a bullish scenario, it will go up to about $5,000 . Even if it is a bit flimsy, it will go up to $3,300 in a bare case .
Even in a bare case, I expect it to rise by almost tenfold. Bearcase also projected that it would rise by about 10 times. Now, according to Tesla's analysis using the Montegaro method up to 2031, the bare case is $3,300 and the bull case is $5,000—the lowest and highest. And so, it was suggested that the default estimate is $4,400.
We are now expecting sales of around $1.4 trillion . The market capitalization here is $17.5 trillion. It's about 1.5 trillion dollars right now, you know . Then, Nvidia is worth about 5 trillion dollars. They proposed a stock price that is more than three times higher than Nvidia's. The gross margin is as high as 68%.
The profit margin is very high. Next, the operating margin is as high as 61%. It is an astonishing figure. Next, it appears that about 8 million robot taxis will be in operation. Next, it is projected that about 1 million units of the Optimus Robot will be sold . Even looking at the bare case, about 800,000 Overs robots will be sold.
This is the accumulation. Next, the estimate for robot taxis is about half of 4.8 million units . In the worst-case scenario, conservatively speaking, the maximum estimate is that revenue will be $1.6 trillion and the market capitalization will be $20 trillion, with approximately 1.2 million Optimus robots sold and about 10 million robot taxis in operation .
ArcKane predicts that robots will account for approximately 80% of Tesla's corporate value by 2031. This represents a decrease from the 2029 figure of about 90% presented in the previous model announced in 2024 . The main reason is that we determined there is a high possibility that the proportion of Optimus services will inflection as robotaxis continue to be produced, as shown in the figure below .
The reason this figure has decreased is because of the Optimus robot . The model announced last time for 2024 was a forecast excluding the Optimus Robot. It's an electric car. This is a robot taxi. This is the energy. This is Optimus Robot. So, robot taxis account for about 52% of the total revenue, and energy accounts for about 11%.
Next, Optimus Robot accounts for about 15% . That electric vehicle accounts for about 22%. Robot taxis account for as much as 78% of operating profit . Energy accounts for 3%, Optimus Robot for 13% of operating profit, and then electric vehicles for 6%. The proportion of electric vehicles is gradually decreasing.
yes. [Snorting] The profit margin is also shrinking. In terms of the value of that memory, it is 16 trillion dollars. Among them, robot taxis account for 81%. Oh, Optimus Robot accounts for 14%. Energy accounts for 2% and electric vehicles account for about 3%. So this is the biggest one. Uh, sales of robotaxis are overwhelmingly large.
I gave examples for each item . To give an example by category, since the number of cars sold is 1 million, we estimate that about 10 million units are sold . At the lowest, it's about 8 million units, and at the highest, around 11 million units . Electric vehicle sales are 1 billion 10 billion 100 won, so 320 billion dollars.
Next, the net revenue from ride-hailing is 750,000,000 won, so it is 753 billion dollars. Robo-taxi revenue is much larger. Next, we expect storage revenue to be around $163 billion . We expect cumulative Optimus sales to reach around 1 million units . Optimus revenue is now $212 billion. So, since total revenue is 1 billion, 10 billion, and 100 billion, it is expected to be about 1.4449 trillion dollars.
We expect operating profit to be around $9 billion . We expect the gross profit margin to be around 68% and the operating profit margin around 61% . The enterprise value is $16 trillion, the market capitalization is $17 trillion, and the stock price is $4,400. What changed in ArcheAge's last model update ?
Robot City was released and Robot City pricing was assumed, and Optimus Gear also included AI inflated and Terra past exam questions and things like that. Tedla launched its Robotach service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 and achieved over 1 million miles (1.6 million km) of unmanned driving in approximately seven months.
This is now four times faster than Waymo's first million miles of driving. With FSD version 15 coming out as a service after a long time, it appears that this will become a major obstacle to the robot taxi service . It seems like they are talking about how long it took to reach 1 million since commercial operations began .
It took about 30 months to make the bamboo. For Waymo, it took about 28 months. It took Tesla 8 or 9 months. It took 8 months . It's overwhelmingly fast. It is more than four times faster. The number of vehicles in operation is increasing rapidly. Tesla added a cyber capsule to the Robotex lineup. Thanks to the mathematical school commuter-based autonomous driving method, according to our research, Tesla's operations per mile are expected to be about 40% lower than that of the next-generation robotex under the same utilization rate .
It is expected that approximately 8 million robot cities will be deployed cumulatively by 2031. This is the depreciation cost in terms of expenses . When you add up operating costs, insurance premiums, electric charging fees, operation-related maintenance and management costs, tire wear, parking fees, and taxes, it is significantly lower—over 40%—compared to the Cyber Capsi Weibo Ioniq.
It's overwhelmingly low. If we do this, we can't compete on price . If the number of vehicles increases, it is highly likely that CyberCab robotaxis and Tesla robotaxis will overwhelmingly expand their market share . In the pricing process for robotaxis, autonomous robotaxis can create a ride-sharing market on a scale that far exceeds the current human-driven taxi market .
Once fully autonomous robot taxis become established, people probably won't use human-driven robot taxis or services like Waymo anymore . It is stressful to travel in a car driven by a stranger . Unmanned autonomous robot taxis are much more comfortable and free . Right now, we take a taxi with a driver simply because there are no alternatives, but if fully autonomous, driverless robots could provide a service that goes beyond that, who would choose to take a taxi with a human ?
Of course, there might be a very few people who prefer a car driven by a human, but that would likely be a localized case. This year, by segmenting willingness to pay by income level, we will be able to estimate the size of the Robotex market across various price ranges more precisely. High-income customers tend to travel more during traffic congestion, so higher prices can be charged during peak hours .
A robotaxi network could generate revenue by attracting customers who are willing to stay at home during times when transportation capacity is limited, and increase usage in a wider market by lowering prices during less congested times . Optimus Corporation Optimus can be considered Tesla's biggest long-term value creation engine.
Since it is the starting stage until 2031, the level of completeness will likely be lower, but after that, it will increase exponentially . The humanoid robot market could grow to approximately $26 trillion, which is double the size of the global taxi market ($10 to $15 trillion). Tesla predicted that it would save approximately $3.5 billion in costs by 2029 if it introduced about 30,000 humanoid robots in-house in its 2024 model .
The current model is expected to reach approximately 1 million robot sales externally . It was projected to generate $200 billion in revenue in 2031 . Well, Elon Mosque roughly estimated sales of between 100 million and 1 billion units, but he significantly reduced that figure and took a conservative approach.
The range from 100 million to 1 billion is a bit too much of an exaggeration by Elon. So, that is how the lie became a reality. Currently, the main bottleneck is the lack of real-world training data . To address this, Tesla has established the Optimus Academy and is training 20,000 to 30,000 robots in-house for various tasks .
The parentheses are now talking about the cumulative AI computing capacity . Vertical is a major intervention accident for the autonomous driving system . It is basically asking whether they intervened even once during the few thousand days they were traveling . Assuming that in October, there was an intervention once per 1,000 miles.
Right now, it means that it intervenes in driving once every million miles. The AI competition regarding the 2024 model announcement is about AI infrastructure and Terra spending. With the announcement of 2024 models, the AI competition has become even more intense. Now it has become a key differentiating factor in performance and computing power .
In the 2020 model, a new AI infrastructure item will be added as a key factor determining Optimus's performance. According to Elon Musk, the supply of resources required for computing and academic computing is expected to be a long-term constraint. Tesla has agreed to jointly launch SpaceX's Therapy.
It means they agreed to launch. SpaceX is expected to invest a significant amount of capital in building ground and orbital production bases for mass production, while Tesla appears likely to focus on building approximately $3 billion for the initial research phase . So, since it's Tesla's balance sheet, it's a balance sheet .
In terms of the balance sheet, this will be fixed costs, assets, fixed assets, and so on. Now, the proportion of AI infrastructure and chip-related matters is gradually increasing over time. It will increase until 203, and as of 2026, Growth PP here refers to a company's land, buildings, machinery, equipment, etc.
Next, this is related to AI infrastructure chips, and the proportion of AI infrastructure chip-related products is gradually increasing. Rather than focusing on general machinery and equipment, the previous updated model was simplified to exclude business segments such as human-driven ride-hailing services and insurance.
As this is expected to have a minimal impact on Tesla's target stock price, it is highly likely that Tesla will prioritize its robotics business over China, given the high pricing power and significant profit potential of ride-hailing services in the United States . So, I simplified the model a bit compared to the previous model.
Therefore, the model excluded the Chinese robotics business and finally considered all stock facility effects resulting from Elon Musk's stock-based compensation, assuming that such compensation would be finalized by the evaluation period. So, as the deadline of 2030 gets closer, the accuracy of these forecasts is getting higher and higher .
To do so, we have now simplified the model. I also made assumptions regarding the Tesla Space merger . Our model evaluates Tesla as an independent business entity, but a merger between SpaceX and Tesla is likely to occur within the next five years . Tesla’s high cash-generating Robotics Network can fund Paytex’s ambitious developmental data center construction plans, while at the same time, space computing-intensive advanced AI models can be utilized for Optimus Rocket deployment plan revenue.
The two companies can mitigate chip issues by cooperating on the Terra project, and SpaceX and Tesla could generate a total of $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in operating profit by 2031. Revenue is $3.8 trillion, and operating profit is $2.7 trillion. How much is this? SpaceX's AI will account for 62%, SpaceX revenue 50%, Starlink 12%, Tesla electric vehicle sales 8%, robots 20%, energy 4%, and Optimus Robots 6% .
In terms of operating profit, it appears that SpaceX will account for 59%, Energy 10%, and Tesla's other total 31%. It is an expectation along with the risks of our model. expectation. There are cases where regulations are delayed. An unexpected event is happening. Something like a naturalized pandemic.
In this case, it means it might proceed a bit slower . In conclusion, Arc forecasts Tesla's target stock price for 2031 at $4,400. Our model is available on the Other Hub, and we would like our readers to examine it for themselves to verify assumptions or visualize the simulation results. So, we have examined the detailed analysis data from Cathie Wood Ark Investments regarding the projected target price of $4,400 for Tesla and SpaceX by 2031.
There are some of you who are feeling frustrated because things are moving a bit slower than expected, but we must be patient . When stock prices start to rise, they increase sharply and surge. Rapid increase. It could rise tenfold in an instant. I will be patient and endure calmly until then . I am rooting for Tesla's stock price to surpass the target of $600 by the end of the year .
This concludes Director Kim's insights . Lastly, please make sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications. Your likes, subscriptions, and notifications give me great strength. thank you Monthly Securities Start with the academy. Let's study formulas properly and start together. Korea's No. 1 Securities Academy, the place to learn investment.
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