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Suppose someone is walking down the street and suddenly sees a $10 bill on the ground. But instead of picking it up, he passes by, thinking that the note can't be real. He thinks that if it were real, someone would have picked it up by now. How strange and silly it seems, doesn't it? But today, in this in-depth discussion, we are going to see why many of the world's leading financial experts think exactly the same way.
And how bookish thinking forces them to miss out on big opportunities in real life. Often when it comes to investing, the common assumption is that it's a science, there will be a fixed formula, put in the numbers and the profit will come out. But the reality is very different. Yes. Today we have some special excerpts from Howard Marks's very famous book, The Most Important Thing Illuminated.
Also comments from great experts like Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblatt. Our mission today is to deeply understand the human dimension of what investing means. It's not just about statistics. It's about psychology, understanding risk correctly, and thinking differently from the crowd. Let's open up a little and understand.
The most important part of all the study is that to achieve success, one first has to change their way of thinking. The source calls it second-level thinking. I explain the difference between level one and level two. As exemplified in the sources , first-level thinking is very straightforward. Dude, this is a very good company.
Come on, let's buy its shares. That's all. Most people make their decision here. The most interesting thing here is that they then wonder why the results aren't better. Absolutely, but what would a second-level thinker think? He will say, this is a good company, that's true. But since everyone knows it, everyone must have bought it.
Because of this, its price has already increased significantly. So let's sell instead of buying. This is the real game. To understand this, you should create a two-by-two matrix, i.e. a chart, in your mind. If someone's behavior is completely normal, that is, conventional, then the results will also be normal.
Meaning, if everyone is making a profit, then he will also get a little bit. If everyone suffers, so will he. Yes, but if one wants extraordinary or very good results, then the behavior must be different from the crowd , that is, unconventional. And not only must it be different, it must also be proven correct.
But wait, here comes a very big question. Is it enough to just think differently? I mean, if someone deliberately opposes everything , couldn't that be dangerous? Huh, how is that? Like, if the whole world is saying it's raining, and someone just to look different says no, the sun is out. Is n't that stupid?
Can't being a deliberate contrarian cause money to sink ? This is a very good argument. This has been taken seriously in the source. Simply going against the grain or by force is tantamount to committing suicide. Second-level thinking never means blindly resisting. So what is the real meaning? This means going deep and asking questions.
To see if the market is making a mistake? When the thinking is different and becomes correct, the next step is to identify where the mistakes are occurring. And this is where the principle of market efficiency comes in. The example with the 10 dollar bill that we gave at the beginning. Absolutely. If that student were to believe his professor that the market is always efficient, that $10 bill would remain there.
Blindly following the theory misses real investment opportunities. This is where things get very interesting. Because according to the source, investing is not really a scientific process. Rather, it is a popularity contest. There is a popularity contest. The safest investment is the one that no one likes at the time.
Because the price of something that everyone loves is already skyrocketing. Let's look at a typical shopping trip. Success is not just about buying good things. But rather things in a good way. I mean buying at the right price. You gave a very good example. And when people make decisions based on emotions, people's likes and dislikes create huge cycles in the market.
Described as a psychological pendulum. Pendulum. Which keeps swinging here and there. Yes , this pendulum swings between fear and greed. Never stops in between. This is why there are three phases of a bull market. In the first stage, only a few people see that things are improving. Most people come to know about it after reaching this stage.
Is n't it? But the third stage is the most dangerous. Then everyone assumes that this boom and this profit will continue like this forever. People think that there is no such thing as risk left. Just like what happened during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, 2008. An example of which is given in the source.
People had completely ignored the risk. Because everyone thought that house prices would never come down. Unbelief was the cause of the disaster. This time the situation is different, very dangerous. Whether it's [nose-sniffing sound] the tulip bubble or the internet stock bubble of the late 90s. The result is always disaster.
Adding this to the bigger picture, we have to understand that rather than predicting the future, it is more important to know where we are in this cycle at the moment. If there is greed on the side, one should be careful. Confusion arises. If the market is so uncertain, then how to protect yourself?
How to wait for the right opportunity? It's about understanding the risk. Risk is not just ups and downs. It is the fear of uncertainty and permanent loss of capital. The source makes a great reference to Nassim Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness. That thing about luck and randomness. They say that people who say, "I know." That is, those who have an "I don't" mindset are the most at risk.
They bet everything on one bet. It is worth mentioning Oaktree's investment philosophy here. Their mantra is, "If we avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves." Meaning, avoid losses, profits will happen automatically. This is a very brilliant strategy. But for this, one has to be a patient opportunist.
The baseball example given by Warren Buffett is perfectly appropriate here. Example, how is that? Buffett says that investing is the best business in the world because there is no one calling a strike. In sports, if the ball comes, you have to swing the bat, otherwise you're out. But there is nothing like that here.
He can stand all day without swinging his bat, just waiting for the right pitch, that is, the right opportunity. And one should only swing the bat when the opportunity is best. What does all this mean? Does this mean that defense is always better than attack ? If more caution is exercised , wouldn't we lose huge profits and die ?
It is reasonable. But the main purpose of the defense is to ensure that humans stay in the game for a long time. If the capital is gone , then there will be no benefit from the wonderful opportunities that will come in the future. That is indeed very true. So the bottom line of all this study is that success is not just about analyzing numbers.
It's about controlling your ego, your emotions, and the influence of the crowd. Absolutely. And before I end today's discussion , I want to leave a thought that arose from this discussion. Look, if the biggest risk in investing is first-rate thinking and following the crowd, what other important decisions in life are there, like careers or relationships, where we are unknowingly becoming part of the crowd ?
Isn't it time to adopt a different level of thinking there too ? Question. If you found this information useful , be sure to subscribe to the channel Intelligence Sardar.
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