원문 보기
Well, I think there's a big debate going on. And if you look at the second, third, and fourth quarter of last year, you look at the mega caps and the rest of the stocks in the S&P 500, you'll see mega caps in the second and the fourth did very well. And and the smaller cap stocks did very well, much better than the mega caps in in the third quarter.
I think there's a little bit of a tug-of-war evolving here. And if we're right, the most massive concentration in the market in history, worse than the depression, is probably going to give way to a broader based bull market. And we're seeing that in our portfolios. And and it really did start right around actually the day after the election.
And I think one of the most important things is going to happen is a regulations coming down. Even in AI in the United States, there regulations started to intrude in a technology that is today where the internet was in the early '90s. We don't even know what we have yet. We're as excited as back then, but now is not the time to regulate it heavily.
Well, I think you've I think you've got the president on your side when it when it when it comes to that in the states. I want to come back to kind of this idea of of the hyperscalers here. You're famous for for your beta strategy, especially when it comes to the tech space. I think it's fair to say that the highest beta right now is in some of these these tech names, in Nvidia, in Microsoft, in Google.
Just looking at some of the moves we've seen in the last 24 hours, not to mention the last 12 months or so, why not increase your holdings for more exposure to the hyperscalers? Yeah, we do think Well, we do own Meta and Amazon in our flagship, and we own more of them in our other more specialized portfolios.
And in Europe here, we have an AI and robotics fund, and we There we hold probably most of them because they are going to benefit from the declining cost in in AI. And even Meta, who was really the open-source leader, the DeepSeek is open-source. I think Meta is saying, "Wait a minute, what's going on here?" And they're going to use some of the techniques, the algorithms that DeepSeek has used to improve their own platforms.
So, we're not negative on them. We think that the neglect of the rest of the market has been extreme, and that that is going to change. That the strongest bull market out there is a broad-based one. A market favoring six or seven stocks alone is not a strong bull market. And so, if we're right, the bull market will strengthen out and gain momentum, awarding rewarding smaller cap stocks than we have seen thus far.
Cathy Wood just dropped a bombshell of a revelation regarding the recent market behavior, and then she came back just to confirm it once again. What am I talking about? Well, how about the fact that she predicted a deflationary boom right after the current volatile market. Companies like Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia have the spotlight on them since they lost more value than ever before.
Can this truly be reversed? When will this prediction happen? . Yes, if you look back at the depression, I'm not going to get all of these numbers right. What you'll see is the massive concentration took place until 1932. Yeah. At which point the market started broadening out. And small or mid-cap stocks back then way outperformed large-cap stocks.
And it makes sense. They had been absolutely destroyed during the depression, which was binary. Is this company going to survive or not? With output down 30%, GDP down 30%. It is surprising to me that we got to to an even even greater point of concentration than the Great Depression. It tells you that in an underlying sense, there was a lot of fear in the market, and that investors were piling into cash, cash-rich companies that, oh by the way, had, you know, a leg up perhaps in this new thing called AI.
Now, I think it's just going to broaden out. Cathy Wood's predictions are as electrifying as they are bewildering. She boldly suggests that the market, while undergoing a rolling recession, is unwittingly setting the stage for an economic renaissance akin to another boom in the market. So, maybe all the dips and all the volatility is going to shoot all the stocks straight up sooner rather than later.
. Productivity has been boosted to some extent, and you're right, it's very difficult to measure this. My background's economics, and in the '80s, productivity was a big question mark, and we saw how flawed the measurements are, and probably still are. So, I can only tell you the rate of uptake is so much is that enterprises are seeing a difference.
Maybe if they're not laying people off, they're not hiring them. And we know that and that's because these AI tools are making their own, especially engineers, so much more productive. Right? So, you just don't have to hire that next person. If you've seen the number of coding employees in in the United States has dropped like a cliff.
I mean, off a cliff. It hasn't dropped like a cliff, it's dropped off a cliff. And I don't know if you've seen that chart, so that very much has happened as engineers just become more and more productive. You know, one of the things that we're wondering is, okay, what part of the software stack will this the traditional software stack will this impact?
And we think the AI revolution is probably what what we see already losing share to some extent. It is still growing, but losing share is software as a service. And, you know, I think we're all paying very close attention to the revenue growth dynamics of these companies. salesforce.com, revenue growth isn't picking up.
In fact, it continues to decelerate. I think it's next quarter will be, I think, 7% down from 9%. That's not what's supposed to happen here. And so, I think that might be what you're referring to. Wait a minute, where are the top-line dynamics? Where are they coming from? Well, I think we have a lot of entrepreneurs in a lot of garages or in R&D centers who are creating the next big thing.
And, you know, we look at two profound ramifications of AI that we understand we've been researching them for so long. The the the largest AI project on Earth is robotaxis and autonomous driving networks. We think that's going to drive 8 to 10 trillion dollars in revenue globally in the next 5 to 10 years, up from zero now.
Optimists like Gene Munster from Deepwater Management are also cautiously revisiting the dot-com bubble's past, hinting at once burned, twice shy investment strategies. The prospect of a recession looms, acting as a potential break on the AI trade momentum. It's a delicate dance of will they, won't they when considering whether the markets will soar or slumber once mo believe that real GDP growth globally is going to accelerate from 3% where it has been for the past 125 years to 7 to 8% if not more, thanks to the convergence among these technologies, .
Now, why are we so confident about that? That sounds like an outrageous number. The consensus forecast is 3%. Well, the reason is if you look back in history, you will see that about 125 years ago, three innovation platforms were evolving at the same time, telephone, electricity, and internal combustion engine.
And what did that do to real GDP growth globally? It increased the rate of real GDP growth by fivefold. We went from 0.6% where the world had been over the 400 years from 1500 to 1900, we went from 0.6% to 3%. That was a fivefold increase. And now we're telling you, even though there are five innovation platforms evolving, with AI at the heart and soul of the acceleration in these technology platforms, that we're only going to see a two to two and a half fold increase.
We think that could be very conservative. And one of the reasons this is going to happen is because of productivity. Productivity is going to grow dramatically. And productivity is associated with low inflation growth as well. You can have higher wage growth if productivity is rising. So, it's a win-win for everyone.
And what a win-win means is wealth creation. And what does that mean for the stock market? Well, if we're right, then the value associated with truly disruptive innovation during the next 5 years in the equity markets, we believe is going to rise from $12 trillion to $140 trillion, more than 10-fold.
Now, you might wonder what is going to happen to the Mag 6 during that period of time. Well, the Mag 6 will probably do fine altogether, although some will be disrupted by this new world order. Uh that said, we expect the Mag 6 to go from $16 trillion today to 60 trillion. So, that's about a fourfold increase, maybe a little less than that.
So, where does this leave us as investors? With a deflationary boom sitting on the horizon, it might just be prime time to reconsider our portfolios. The breadth of Cathie Wood's vision suggests that those ready to weather the storm might indeed bask in the sunshine afterward. .
댓글 0