저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 미국 시장에 대규모 약세 베팅을 한 것으로 알려졌다는 내용의 영상입니다. 13F 보고서에 따르면 S&P500 ETF 풋옵션 등 약 16억 2500만 달러 규모의 숏 포지션이 포트폴리오의 약 93%를 차지하는 것으로 언급됩니다. 다만 옵션 회계 방식상 정확한 시장 대비 규모는 알 수 없다고 설명합니다. 버리의 논리 출발점은 중앙은행의 과도한 통화 공급으로 형성된 인위적인 시장 상승입니다. 2020년 이후 연준의 대규모 유동성 공급과 공급망 충격이 겹쳐 2022년 최악의 인플레이션을 낳았다고 봅니다. 연준은 인플레이션을 일시적이라 보고 시간을 벌고 있으며, 결국 금리를 다시 낮추고 돈을 찍어내는 과거의 실수를 반복할 것이라는 주장입니다. 미국 소비는 저축 감소와 역대 최고 수준의 신용카드 부채로 유지되고 있어 지속 불가능하며, 소비 주도 경기침체가 임박했다고 봅니다. 경기침체 후 금리를 조기에 인하하면 1970년대처럼 인플레이션이 재가속되어 금리를 더 크게 올려야 하고, 시장 급락과 장기 스태그플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다는 경고입니다. 미국 재정적자 누적과 피치의 미국 신용등급 하향도 언급되며, 달러의 기축통화 지위가 약화될 가능성도 제기됩니다. 영상은 버리의 약세 베팅이 과거 2005년처럼 결국 수익으로 이어질지를 질문하며 마무리합니다.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry has bet heavily against the US market and revealed the reasons why he sees the future of the economy as extremely difficult, which would allow him, as he has done in the past, to profit enormously from a downturn and a crisis. Today we will explore Michael Burry's thesis and the reasons why, on this occasion as on so many others, he could be right.
At the end of each quarter, money managers who handle more than $100 million in the United States are required to submit a report known as the 13f, in which they reveal their positions in the stock and options market. As you can imagine, these reports are eagerly awaited by the public to study the purchases and sales of the world's most important investors and try to understand what they are seeing in the market.
This time, the most publicized 13f report has been that of Michael Burry, the investor famous for having predicted the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008 and for his warnings in recent years about the management of the US economy. This report has revealed a great deal A short position with options in the Standard index ETF shows an exposure of $1.625 billion, representing 93% of his portfolio.
Although it's important to clarify that, due to the way options are accounted for in these reports, it's impossible to know the exact size of his position against the market. Clearly, Michael Burry, just as in 2005, sees a major market crash on the horizon. On that occasion, his prediction took time to materialize but ended up generating profits for his Zion fund of over $800 million.
Will this time be the same? Let's begin by looking at the statements Michael Burry has made in recent years, where he has clearly shown his bearish position. It all starts with the Federal Reserve because it's no secret that in recent years, central banks around the world implemented expansionary monetary policies, or as it's generally said, printed a large amount of money.
The Federal Reserve was no exception and maintained an expansionary monetary policy that wasn't reflected in inflation, at least not through its usual measures, until 2022 when a bank When the central bank creates a large amount of money, it is usually absorbed by the financial markets, and a great many absurdities arise.
These absurdities increased when, in 2020, the Federal Reserve considerably increased money creation to stimulate the economy, encouraging people to continue buying and preventing pandemic-related quarantines from bringing everything to a complete halt. However, the quarantines, the war in Ukraine, and the trade war with China damaged production chains, resulting in a situation where, practically everywhere, there was a lot of money chasing very few goods, unleashing the worst episode of inflation since the 1970s.
This caused central banks around the world to begin raising interest rates and reducing the money supply to combat inflation. This is where Michael Burry's initial market analysis comes in. First, he identified a market artificially inflated by the money being created. Second, he saw a Federal Reserve with vested interests in maintaining that market, which explains why they took so long to intervene.
There was talk of transitory inflation, and Burry believes the Federal Reserve is merely buying time. It will repeat the same mistakes of the past: lowering interest rates and printing money again as soon as possible. This is because, generally, when there is a rate hike, inflation is controlled, but at the cost of lower consumption and growth, and sometimes even potentially causing a recession.
This generates an enormous political burden on the Federal Reserve, and Burry believes that an ABCD scenario will force them to lower interest rates to try to save the day. But what will save it? Besides a mild technical recession in the United States in 2022 and one in Europe currently, nothing drastic has really happened with the economy.
This is where another of Michael Burry's main points comes in: he expects a consumer recession in the United States. Despite inflation and high interest rates, consumption has remained high, and for this reason, a recession hasn't occurred. However, this high consumption has been achieved because people have considerably reduced their savings and increased their credit card debt, which is at historic highs.
This, of course, is very unsustainable, and Urrea points out that a recession will occur that will force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Burri argues that lowering interest rates prematurely to rescue US consumers goes beyond a recession caused by this situation. He contends that lowering rates now would lead to a worse inflation cycle, requiring much higher rate hikes, as happened in the 1970s.
This would cause a noticeable market decline and a prolonged, difficult period of stagflation, similar to when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation and then lowered them twice to end it. Furthermore, as we have discussed on this channel several times, all indications suggest that the era of near-zero interest rates and low inflation is unlikely to return in the coming decades.
He might be right about this if the Fed lowers rates very soon. Although the Fed has not yet signaled an intention to lower interest rates, despite inflation falling from its 2022 peak, a consumer-driven recession could occur at any moment and trigger Fed action. Remember, if you want to learn more about the markets and start investing, you can use our free investment course.
If you already have experience but lack the consistency you desire, you can also obtain information about our robots and personalized training. I'll leave a link in the description. Burry's other idea, which complements everything mentioned above, is the poor image of the United States government, which has maintained budget deficits for many years.
Resources have been very poorly invested, resulting in debt that grows at a much faster rate than the economy and will place significant limitations on the Federal Reserve. The government will be able to spend less and less and will have to allocate more to paying interest on its debt. In fact, this is the reason Fitch recently lowered the US debt rating.
Along with this, Burry's idea is that the dollar could lose its status as a reserve currency. Although he hasn't elaborated on this recently, if this is combined with a difficult fiscal situation and an indebted consumer with no savings, then it would translate into absolute collapse. Wherever this occurs, it would most likely be rewarded and solidify its legendary status for investments.
If you want to know more about the possibility of the dollar losing its status as a reserve currency, I invite you to... Watch this video, but before you click, I'd like to know your opinion on Burray's market position. Do you think he'll be right again?
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