저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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글로벌 변동성은 엔캐리 청산과 미국 대선 불확실성, 우크라이나·중동·대만 리스크가 겹친 결과로 봄. 엔캐리 레버리지 청산은 대체로 끝났고 단기 시장은 횡보 전망. 미국 M2 증가율 둔화로 주식 유입 제한적, 금리인하 시 자금은 채권→주식 이동 예상이나 성장은 과거보다 약함. 인도는 RBI 대응과 국내 개인투자자 주도로 상대적으로 견조. 정책 차이(공화당 감세·에너지 증산 vs 민주당 증세·재정지출)가 미국 시장 불확실성의 핵심. 인도에서는 은행주는 보류, 원자재(철강·석유·건축자재) 기업이 매력적이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
welcome to NDTV profit the global markets and the Indian markets are witnessing sharp swings and volatility this has been triggered by multiple events that have taken place in the last two to 3 weeks to get a sense of what's happening in the global markets and how will it impact India we are being joined by Mark Mobius chairman movia emerging opportunities fund Mark welcome to NV profit thank you for having me yeah so uh my first question is you know what is your assessment of the current situation in the global markets partly triggered by fears of us recession partly triggered by the N Carry trade rewind and to a limited extent geopolitical issues well the Yen carry trade was uh sort of the trigger to have a correction in global markets particularly the US market uh but you must remember the background to this is that there's a great deal of uncertainty uh in the world and particularly in the US as result of the upcoming election as you know the difference in policies between the Democratic and Republican candidates are quite wide the differences are very wide so that's one of the keys to uncertainty because nobody knows how this will turn out at the end of the day and it will have Global implications but in addition to that there's the uncertainty about the war in Ukraine uh the situation with China and Taiwan and the situation in Israel and the Middle East so you have all of these certain certainties piling up uh in the minds of people and investors around the world and that creates uh volatility so when you have a trigger like what you've seen in Japan with the Yen carry tray that carries over into the market generally however if you look at the correction in the US market it is not that big in other words we're not into a big bare Market at this stage of the game at least and if you look at India India has performed better than the US market and that says a lot about the incredible growth rate of India and the dynamic economy that India now has right so the impact on India is limited right now uh but before we go back to uh India specifically you know I would like to help our viewers understand what's happening globally you know especially after the bank of Japan said that they will stop hiking the rates there was a rally in all the markets you know Asian markets rallied us markets rallied Indian markets rallied but today morning we wake up and we find that all the rally has fizzled out so my question to you is how long will this end carry trade play out is it fully done or will it keep coming back because of the interest rate differentials and the currency rate differentials between the uh two countries I think it's pretty much played out simply because uh what we saw is leveraging into this trade uh the leveraging is what causes the incredible volatility uh now the leveraging is now being wound down it's probably pretty much over by this stage so you're going to not going to see the kind of volatility that we've seen uh in the first stages of this deleveraging um so uh going forward I believe the markets will move in a sidewards direction rather than a very volatile situation where you have 5 10% moveing moves this is not going to happen going forward at least in the short term okay you still see 5 to 10% move in the short term and you okay so I have to now go back to the Indian markets you know we just had the RB Governor uh talking about the global scenario and telling the uh country that look India is resilient and we have enough reserves to absorb shocks what is your view on India being able to control and absorb the shocks that are triggered in the global markets or any any part of the uh Global Market geography well I must say the RBI has done a very good job in in uh regulating the money supply regulating the exchange rate uh and generally looking at the total economy in a very wise way um you must remember one of the big problems in America is money supply because during the covid crises uh the FED increased money supply by 20 30 40% depending on which month you were talking about and then they made a big big decline in the money supply and money supply is what really drives Market you must remember now in the case of India the RBI was not so extreme uh during the covid crisis they did increase money supply but not as much as in the US and therefore the downturn the decrease in money supply was not as dramatic so you have two situations one very extreme in the US and one not so extreme in India and that says a lot and of course if you look at the situation now U money supply growth in America is down to single digits um and a lot of the money that came in during covid has been dried out it's been used that's one of the reason why the market is weak uh that's not the case so much in India right okay so the other big uh global factor that is playing out or could play out maybe in the next uh 1 month or whenever the FED Cuts rate assuming the FED is going to cut rate from September to say till about January uh how will money move after the FED Cuts rates by say 25 50 75 basis points over a period of 3 to 6 month uh will money move out of Emerging Markets how will this play out and how will uh you see money shifting to different assets apart from equities well a rate cut would naturally move money from fixed income into equities under nor normal circumstances however as I mentioned in the US money supply is not growing at a high rate and therefore there will not be a lot of money going into equities as a result of that the equity Market will do fine but it will not be doing as well as it been doing in the past now here's where the political situation comes into play if the Republicans come into power in America they will cut taxes this will have a big big impact on the markets there'll be a surge in investment in addition the Republicans will increase uh production of oil and gas which will mean a reduction in the price of oil and a reduction in the inflation rate in America which again will be very positive with the economy on the other hand if the Democrats come in it'll be the opposite you'll have increases in taxes and you'll have a much more u a stronger government spending program which will not generally not be good for the economy so these are two different situations that's the reason why the market in America is so uncertain because nobody knows how this will pan out right so till then it's going to be uncertainty but do you think what what will be the approach towards India do you think FIS will keep playing shuffling money around you know buy for 10 days sell the next 10 days and wait and watch no I believe India you must remember it's a huge country uh and a lot of people must uh seem to think that foreigners Drive the markets in India that's not the case the local Indian investor is the one that drives the Indian market and as you know retail investors have become very active in the Indian market one of the reasons why the uh Reserve Bank has told banks that they should attract more and more deposits is I believe they're afraid that too many retail Indian investors are going into the market and gambling in the market which is not good so uh but nevertheless uh Indians are getting richer the high growth rate means you got more and more money in the pocket markets of Indians all over India and the that means more deposits and more money going into the stock market okay yeah that's that's a big concern for the banking system you know they are unable to raise deposits to continue doing uh incremental business that is credit growth you know that's a big issue banks are facing so therefore uh let's assume that you are focusing on India and you want to be positive on India will you put money in Banks or will you put money in other sectors I would not put money in Banks yet because if interest rates come down they will be squeezed to some extent uh however over the long term some of the banks may be attractive I would now put money into raw materials uh companies that are producing raw materials for infrastructure for industry generally uh that would be any kind of raw material whether it be steel whether it be oil whether it be um Granite building materials anything of that nature I think will be uh very attractive to go into at this stage
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