원문 보기
we talked at the top of the show about the ideas that consume your time well how do you know when one of those one of those ideas has the right place at the right time to buy the stock yeah that's what I'm thinking about a thing about the top of the show anything about Spotify I don't you know Spotify but it's the world's largest music streaming service where the stock became public a little more than a year and a half ago after initially brewing right out of the gate the stock rolled over at the end of last year along with everything else and it never really recovered from that meltdown it was also as if its ton had not yet come but when it opened everyone was so darn excited including me on Monday though at last Spotify reported a fantastic quarter and it stocks urgently $20 or 60 percent in a single day maybe some vindication for me so is Spotify an idea whose time has come maybe but as someone who started recommending this thing pretty much the moment it came public well let me just tell you I've been burned every single time that I have said it's the right thing to buy every time I thought we had a sustainable rally and I was wrong every time it gained momentum it swift and lost that momentum even when the company reported what I thought were good numbers in the past walsh it would always find something to nitpick about and then the stock would get hit but you know what this time this time is different there was nothing in nitpick with this quarter and it feels like the market's finally give you Spotify the credit it deserves but well we newfound love for this stock last I know when I spoke with them on Monday I sensed that maybe it's for real this time but I've been wrong but let me tell you why I think will be more upside first you understand the Spotify has a terrific concept they give away their huge library of music content if you're willing to listen to ads but you know what you can pay up for an ad-free experience and there's a great migration that comes from the advertising people to the ad free copies got 248 million monthly active users which includes a hundred and thirteen million paying subscribers that's a unique Club the 100 million plus Club it's growing like a weed and early transform the music industry however for most of us existence is a publicly traded company Spotify struggled to find its groove they've now reported seven quarters since the public listing in April of 2018 and while mattress delivered some impressive numbers five outright revenue beats and just to very small misses even positive rooms reports have failed to become positive catalyst for the stock as you can tell from this incredible depiction until two days ago or what was Spotify problem why do people not like it well a couple issues we can go over for one thing it's never been crystal clear exactly which metrics investors should care about the most remember at the top of the show I talked about time and I talked about government was those are metrics that we're trying to factor in what were the factors that you needed to know here was it total monthly average users was it paid subscribers was it revenue see there was no consensus from Wall Street so whenever Spotify reported upside surprise was some heroin there's always someone willing to argue that the negatives outweigh the positives second and Spotify the European company and it gets a huge chunk of its revenues from the United States though so you have these ridiculous currency fluctuations they often make it very difficult to interpret the the numbers for example the last time they reported three months ago the sales and earnings were fantastic but the paid subscriber numbers came in weaker than expected some analysts upgraded the stock raise the price targets but others told you the pay subscriber for years was little it mattered and downgraded the stock yeah at the same time we had upgrades and downgrades always a curious situation so ended up that while it got hit on the news but then it rallied to its year-to-date highs a couple of days later pure confusion third and most important spot advise management is incredibly non-promotional the team led by the straight-shooting chairman and CEO Daniel F has developed a reputation for giving conservative guidance on their conference calls now personally this is one of things I loved about Spotify I prefer executives who practice the art of view pod under-promise and over-deliver to executives who will over-promised and under-delivered really break our hearts unfortunately there were times when the company would report stellar results but then managers forecasts how they tap investors gave up on the stock because of it so I want to use a technical term about what happened on its conference call so you really understand no mojo mean I'm not everyone was confident management's long term strategy the beginning of the year Spotify announced that was making a major move in the podcasting I thought this was brilliant to this is another mistake I made they acquired given with media for content and anchor a platform that helps people create podcasts a look I didn't hear just because it happens to be in Brooklyn about five blocks for me this move was greeted with skepticism by others and the Bears only got more and more when Apple told us they were getting into the same business over the summer now o long I know I've been positive on Spotify except during a moment of temporary weakness when the stock hit was hit by a savage rotation out of growth into devalue the both these this is simple Spotify is a huge beneficiary from the rise of the subscription economy these days consumers don't really care about ownership anymore they're happy to pay for a monthly subscription service that gives them access to a huge library of content at bargain basement price plus modifies always had impressive numbers it's been very frustrating to watch the stock flounder even as they kept delivery saw results over the summer though investors started fretting it too company was experiencing subscriber growth shortfall in August the company extended their free trial period from one month to three months which made people worry that the streaming music space must be getting more competitive so when Spotify reported that fabulous quarter on Monday thank heavens well they didn't just deliver better than expected numbers they also put many of these concerns to bed they finally delivered exactly what I thought that they were going to deliver and then some the company posted terrific better than expected sales up 28% year-over-year remember this is a big numbers people they generated fifty four million euro operating profit stream was looking for 30 million you're a loss Spotify his monthly average users grew by 30% to 248 million that's five million more than this analyst expected that includes higher than anticipated premium subscribers at 130 million up 31% euro beer and much higher than expected ad support users up 29% even though management once again gave conservative guidance at least at time it was in line with Wall Street's expectations they even raised their monthly average user for for the next quarter there was very little equivalent rill down it is clear that Spotify it is firing all cylinders there is no bare case that I can find now there international growth was tremendous their business is Latin America while I couldn't believe how strong Southeast Asia is the CFO but accelerated dramatically India outperforming management's forecast by 30 percent Spotify has been filling with its platform to improve subscriber retention these changes are clearly working how about the podcast business Wall Street's been so skeptical Spotify put it out there seeing exponential growth in podcast our street I'm 39 percent versus last quarter not last year last quarter management adds that and I quote for music listeners who to engage in podcasts we are seeing increased engagement and increased conversion from ad-supported the premium end quote that's the holy grail then they continue quote some of the increases are extraordinary almost too good to be true and quote holy moly Spotify gave us more color on their two-sided marketplace initiative they want to give up and coming musicians tools to help connect with an audience and develop their careers it's great this could be a huge source of revenue to data wide magic told us they'll have more financial details the next time they report no wonder the stock caught fire on the news the nars were almost universally better than expected the much touted push in the podcast is paying off in a major way people love podcasts we all know this positive catalyst down the road thanks to the two-sided marketplace initiative so consistently s be the beginning of a longer-term rally for Spotify that I fought from the beginning but I've been wrong about it wouldn't be the first newly public company that took a long time to find its groove hey by the way we saw the same thing happened with two of my absolute favorites in 2016-17 Opta and koopa it took a little while oh but once they caught fire Wow and you know what and the same thing goes for Facebook big swoon then monster rally but once they found their footing that gave you spectacular long-term gains oh by the way Netflix had his troubles too before it took the bull by the horns you know what was that one of the architects of that company strategy of matching your tastes with your films and a predictive artificial intelligence fashion the retiring retiring Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy whom I interviewed on Monday oh he will most certainly be missed and I always think of him when we use Spotify at our restaurants and it mine reads what our collective customers want the bottom line I think Spotify will be just fine I think it's terrific company just imported a game changer of a quarter any after that rally this talks basically back to where it was when it came public in a direct listing last year and you know what I know this looks deep you ain't seen nothing yet bill in Georgia Bailey for many years about Roku's and had a 2014 approximate now held a stock drop this is a wild one Roku when you every time you see a new system come out a new David Faber than unbelievable interview about Time Warner and there are h bo on the go what happens people by Roku and so I have to tell you sir I don't think that one's done I think that one can still go higher right this could be the beginning of a long term rally in Spotify I'm serious it may just you know I got it wrong again I've said that five times I like to say when I got it wrong because I like to also say when I got it right like with app like with Facebook okay there's much more Mad Money head tracks has been on fire there's no one I'd like but care for so so far this year but it's me sir nice miss while they in your red flag in their own conference cool I'm gonna sit down with the CEO to find out what's on deck for the company going forward then it's a cooper stock's price to total proof imperfection on the reveal what they are and what you should do with then of course rapid-fire yes
Comments 0