저자: Wealth Mindset Network · 외국인
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people still don't understand is that this High inflation environment is here to stay because there's absolutely nothing to Fed is capable of doing about it in fact everything the FED does is going to throw gasoline on the inflation fire so fed monetary policy is going to exacerbate the inflation that we're dealing with I mean even though they're talking about fighting inflation they're not really going to fight it they're going to keep stoking the Flames just they're going to you know be less aggressive what they're talking about doing is Raising interest rates but these are still highly stimulative rates of Interest it was in 2002 that the FED slashed rates to one percent to stimulate the economy after you know the NASDAQ bubble bursts they started you know the war on terror and all that stuff happened we had a recession and so Greenspan lowered rates to one to stimulate the economy now Powell's saying well we're going to raise rage to sedate the economy I mean it's still low and the problem is the budget deficits have exploded we're talking about maybe three trillion dollars a year now is what our annual budget deficit is the only way to finance that is for the FED to do more QE so even though it's talking about shrinking the balance sheet it's not really going to happen the balance sheet is going to keep expanding but not only do we have this huge budget deficit we have record trade deficits last year we had the first ever merchandise trade deficit to exceed one trillion dollars in a single year and in the month of December we hit a new record high we had over a 100 billion dollar deficit in December and these deficits are going to Skyrocket look at the price of oil now 92 93 dollars a barrel heading well above 100 a barrel this year we're at net importing all that a lot of oil that further runs up the trade deficit so there's no way to finance this the FED is going to be forced to print even more money so while it's pretending it's going to take the punch bowl away it's going to continue to spike it but it's not going to be enough to sustain the asset bubble so the change in monetary policy is a significant enough shift to prick the bubble in tech stocks and momentum stocks but it's not big enough to slow down inflation so we're going to have stagflation we're going to have a week in the economy Rising inflation and that is a very different investment landscape than the one investors have been used to over the past 10 20 years the manufacturers are going to have to pass on those higher costs to their customers because they have to operate at a profit so at a minimum they have to pass on the costs but what they end up doing is actually passing on more than the cost because you have to find a new equilibrium because every time the company raises prices it does lose some buyers on the margin because we're all sensitive to price I mean if we weren't sensitive the companies would just Jack the prices even higher the reason that there's a lid on prices is because companies are looking for the optimal price where they can sell the most amount of stuff and make the most amount of money and so as you raise prices you start losing some of your customers so there's a sweet spot where you can have the maximum amount of profit well that all changes when your costs go up so when their costs go up they have to find a new equilibrium where they can maximize their profits but what happens are is as you start raising your prices you start losing some customers and so now you you know you have fewer customers to try to average out all your fixed costs so the new equilibrium price where you can maximize your profits ends up being even higher than just the increase of costs because you have to make up for the loss of customers so what happens in an inflationary environment is businesses keep selling fewer and fewer products at higher and higher prices and those customers that can afford the higher prices keep buying and those that can't well they go without the products last year though businesses didn't raise prices enough that was the problem because you had the federal chairman and all the economists were telling everybody oh don't worry about these Rising costs this is all transitory right and so the business owners believed the economists they absorbed these price hikes in their own costs because they didn't want to just raise their prices if it was just you know a one-off thing if it was just higher costs for a few months they probably figured you know what we'll just eat that you know it's not worth raising prices losing out to our competitors annoying our customers you know we'll just ride it out because it's you know it's temporary but as we got to the end of the year and now these companies look back like look at we just got the earnings on Friday for Clorox and Clorox got killed like new down 10 52-week low why to get beat up well they missed why they missed because their costs were up a lot and obviously they didn't raise their prices nearly enough to cover the increase in costs and so I think a lot of these businesses that were kind of con into this false sense of complacency on what was happening now they have a lot of catching up to do John not only do they have to get ahead of the curve and start factoring in Rising costs but they got to catch up for all the Lost ground so they have to raise prices a lot and that's one of the reasons I've been saying that rather than CPI and you know number coming down from the seven percent we got last year because it's probably going to be higher we're going to go maybe from 7 to 10 first of all wages are rising the problem is they're not Rising as much as prices so right people are running out of ammo but some people are not buying stuff look what's happened recently to Car Sales I mean car prices have gone way up and so car sales are coming down I mean people are buying fewer cars you know it's happening in the real estate market I mean the prices went way up and so fewer people can afford to buy them so they're still trading but you know not as many people can afford to buy now certain things like food I mean people are going to keep spending money on food but they change what they buy right they don't buy as much steak they buy more you know Hamburger right so they're not eating as well as they would like to because they can't afford some of the stuff that they used to be able to afford they have to trade down it's going to happen across the board and people are going to buy cheaper stuff or less things and it's probably already happening it's just going to happen more as the inflation gets worse you want to skew your portfolio to stuff that people have to buy not stuff that they buy because they want to right so people have to buy certain products right and so you've got much more pricing power if the consumer has to buy where you're selling versus a discretionary item that you know if he has any money left over you know he'll buy that uh but you know but first he has to take care of what he needs before he can start buying you know what he wants and so yeah if you look at a lot of the stocks that we own those are the companies a lot of these consumer companies or utilities you got to pay your electric bill you don't want to be in the dark I mean you can use less electricity you can you know watch how many lights you leave on you can adjust your thermostat but you're going to buy electricity no matter what you're not going to you know live in the dark and use candles so these companies are still going to sell that energy right your gasoline people are still going to drive cars they may not drive as often but they're still going to drive maybe they're not going to take a long vacation or maybe they'll carpool but you're still going to buy gas so these oil companies are still going to make money but you know you buy these things that you know people are going to keep buying and you can raise your prices your costs go up you raise your prices and you can stay ahead and you can pay dividends and absolutely you have to be in companies that have a lot of pricing power now you know there are a lot of these companies that have products it's highly competitive like look at all these streaming stocks one of the places people can easily cut back is just look how many streaming services are you going to buy right maybe you'll look back and I've got six or seven of them you know you're going to cut back on three or four of them or maybe I'm going to take a streaming service and I'm going to use it for a week or two I'm going to watch what I want to watch then I'm going to you know unsubscribe from that one and I'll have one at a time until I you know watch the shows I want to watch but people are competing for the same group of customers and these customers are dealing with higher food prices higher gas price prices higher rent so they got to cut back where they can cut back and I think too A lot of these companies that give away their products right like the Facebooks right you don't pay money to have a Facebook account but the problem is Facebook makes money from the advertisers and if the advertisers aren't selling as much of their stuff because the people on Facebook can't afford to buy it well now the advertisers can't afford to advertise on Facebook anymore right Facebook's earnings go away even though they're giving away their product the fact that their customers don't have the discretionary income their real product which is the advertising they can't sell that so there's a lot of these businesses that are going to be a lot of trouble when everybody is tightening their belts I don't think we're going to have another crash like the 30s but that doesn't mean you don't have to worry because during the 1930s we were on the gold standard we don't have that benefit anymore the market can still crash as much as it did in the 30s if you measure it in the price of gold because see this time around it's the dollar that's going to crash right so if you're simply measuring the value of stocks with dollars you know if the dollar itself loses a lot of value then you know it may look like the stock market's gone up it's like if you're six feet tall and I give you a ruler that only has six inches in it and now you measure yourself it doesn't mean you're 12 feet tall you got to look at that ruler I've cut the ruler in half your height hasn't changed it's the ruler that's changed and so now you're taller because a foot now has six inches right so if the dollar loses a lot of value and then you go and try to price stocks well obviously the price is going to go up when you're measuring stocks with money that's worth less gold is an objective measure of value that ounce of gold doesn't change the government doesn't print any gold so if you really want to know what's happening to prices you need something like gold as an Arbiter so you can look at it through a lens that doesn't change and if you do that you will see a crash in all of these overpriced assets and the way Americans will see that crash right your stock market portfolio maybe it doesn't go down or maybe it goes up maybe it doubles but when you go to the supermarket everything is 10 times as expensive your electric bill is 10 times as expensive so if your stock portfolio has doubled but your cost of living has gone up 10 times your stock portfolio has actually lost value because its ability to help offset your cost of living has been diminished the real value of those stocks has gone down relative to all of the goods that you want to buy when people invest in a stock market nobody buys stocks because they want stocks they don't hang the certificate you know on a wall and admire it people are buying stocks because they hope they can sell them at a profit or take the dividends and then go out and buy stuff right it's the stuff that they want stocks are just a means to get you more stuff but if the price of the stuff you want is skyrocketing compared to the value of the stocks you own you're getting poorer not richer
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