The spring could have huge rallying months, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

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현재 관세 불확실성으로 시장이 변동성이 크지만, 최근 6주간의 약세로 심리와 포지셔닝이 크게 위축되어 있어 3월~5월 중 10~15% 반등이 가능하다는 주장. 나쁜 뉴스에도 지수가 오르는 것은 악재가 이미 반영됐다는 신호. 실적 하향 리스크는 존재하며, 1분기 실적·가이던스 이후 경로가 명확해질 것으로 봄. 경기 둔화 시 트럼프 풋과 연준 풋이 재등장할 것이라고 봄.

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01. it does take us to our talk of the tape where stocks are likely to go from here let's bring in our experts Adam Parker he's the founder and CEO of triari research Tom Lee is the managing partner and head of research for fun Strat both our CNBC contributors we're lucky to have you both together today welcome guys uh all right Adam just give me your assessment as you watch what is a increasingly headline driven Market yeah I mean look as you know we we think it's going to be choppy I I'm still optimistic that on the other side of this we could get back toward you know Revenue growth and and uh you know beneficiaries on the AI front with productivity and margins so the call we've had is choppy here in the first few months then once the management teams understand uh what the policy backdrop is they can you know deploy productively Capital so I i' choppy first half and then we probably get a resumption of pretty good growth Tom you've tried to remain pretty optimistic through all of this are you still yeah I am optimistic uh I mean I can understand why investors are sitting on their hands I mean they don't really know how severe these tariffs are are going to be how long they are but now we're seeing a big price correction a decline in sentiment uh and then something like today we got a bad ADP jobs report and the stock is at the Market's actually up so we're actually Rising on bad news which is a good sign that a lot of bad news is priced in but do you agree with Adam that the first half of the year is likely to be a little more choppy and that you can get through some of these issues here regarding trade and then you look down the road to tax policy and think that okay well that's going to usher in a better back half of the year uh I mean in fact what's just happened the last tax policy excuse me yeah I mean what happened the last six weeks is essentially a bare Market that has swept through sentiment and positioning right because if you look at hedge fund positioning it's gone almost neutral and a huge correction of momentum so I I think it's very possible that March April May could actually be like one of these huge rally months where we're rallying 10 15% even in March I mean as we're sitting here you know we're going to be driven obviously by more more tariff headlines we do have to consider the fact that earnings could take a hit do we need to reassess that I mean look I I think if stagflation were a stock it's up off the low that's why the market has been choppy people are worried about you know uh a slowing economy Walmart consumer confidence uh retail sales looking a little light at the same time they're worried about you know higher prices I I I don't think that's ultimately what's going to happen so you'd be short that stock uh I I I would be I just don't know may I think Tom is short it today and I maybe would say is I maybe would be short it in a couple months but I think we're you know in the same mindset that we'll get on the other side of this at some point probably in the second quarter I just think it's hard to get through it until we really understand uh if you're the CEO of a company that's a big company and you've got uh facilities and customers in Canada and Mexico and China Etc I just think you're a little bit you I like his phrase you know sitting on your hands a little to you understand a little bit more about how to most productively deploy capital I think that usually takes probably through April earnings and guidance and then and then I'd probably kind of be more optimistic that we have a certain path so we're we're in the close enough for you know uh government work if that's that's a thing well you might be losing exactly we might get do get do I don't know if that's so bullish you I'll take I'll take I'll take you too um I mean it's one thing for CEOs to be a little skittish um be a little more cautious that's what they get paid to do uh investors often have to place their bets before something takes place is this a buy this uh unsettled Market that we've witnessed recently uh I mean yes in my mind we we put out a piece yesterday just talking about the 10 best days that happened every year last year for instance the 10 best days added up to 21 percentage points of the S&P X those 10 days the market was only up 4% so you know you don't get 20% years because it's good through the year it's just the 10 best days I think the setup for a 10 best day is near because if the economy's near stall speed I think people realize the Trump put does come back because otherwise it has to unwind all this austerity and if the job Market's soft the fed put comes back into play because the FED doesn't want to play with stall speed and I think that's what is going to be the positive Catalyst in the next couple of weeks and on top of that we already know stocks will bottom before bad news Peaks and so if we're seeing the market not fade on bad news that means we're already priced in a lot of things that would scare us