I would like Fed to go 100bps, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 시겔 교수는 물가가 여전히 높지만 방향은 맞고, 연준이 0.75%p(75bp)가 아니라 1%p(100bp) 인상 등 더 공격적으로 나서야 한다고 주장한다. CPI 평가: 4월 CPI는 여전히 뜨겁지만 방향은 맞다. 주거 지표는 지연 반영되어 향후 6~9개월간 지수를 끌어올릴 것이다. 주거 및 에너지: 주거 부문 상승이 CPI에 늦게 반영되어 인플레이션 압력이 이어진다. 휘발유 가격은 이미 기존 고점을 넘었고 다음 달 CPI는 나쁘게 나올 것이다. 연준 정책 제언: 100bp 인상이 바람직하며, 이를 통해 연준이 인플레이션을 진지하게 다룬다는 신호를 줘야 한다. 초기 하락 후 시장은 반등할 것이라고 본다. 통화량 및 물가: 최근 2개월 통화량 증가세 둔화는 긍정적이다. 4월 소비자물가는 8개월 만에 처음 하락했다. 정책 지연 평가: 연준이 2020~2021년 초 화폐 살포의 결과를 뒤늦게 대응하고 있어 인플레이션이 이미 구조적으로 굳어졌다. 75bp냐 50bp냐는 이제 큰 차이가 없다. 금리 정책의 시차: 금리 정책은 효과가 12~18개월 뒤에 나타나는 둔한 도구이므로 정밀하게 조정할 수 없다. 과도한 긴축(10~15% 금리)은 바람직하지 않다. 향후 전망: 인플레이션이 향후 6~9개월에서 12개월 동안 지속될 것으로 보며, 상승한 물가 수준은 10~15% 추가 상승으로 이어질 수 있다.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. that we've hit a bottom or are close let's welcome in professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school down in philadelphia it's good to see you professor welcome back happy to see you scott so your your first read on the cpi today um as i mentioned at the top absolutely still hot but at least seems to be going in the right direction it's going in the right direction but you know we're beginning to see the housing sector which is so important for the cpi and which i have said you know repeatedly on your program and before it's very lagged in the way that it is in this it computed into the index that's going to lift the index for the next six to nine months so we we have had a lot of inflation that hasn't actually shown up in the index so we're not going to get some good prints i think take a look at next month you know energy which came down we know gas prices have already exceeded their previous high that's it's going to be a terrible print next month so i you know my my feeling is i would like to see the feds just say listen we couldn't go a hundred basis points we we're gonna really be serious about this inflation i actually think after an initial sell down the market would rally and say you know what the central bank is protecting our currency which is something that we need that that's sad i want to make this point i've seen a slow down in money growth in the last two months that is promising but just the beginning they have to keep their eye on money i mean consumer prices did fall in april for the first time in in eight months now i i know i'm not naive to the fact of of where where costs are still high and the struggles that families have to put food on the table to fill the gas tank i'm not naive to that at all but if the fed is looking at at all of this and says we are at least confident that inflation has peaked we can do 50 like we just did and let's do another 50 in june and then let's see where we're at and maybe their strategy isn't proven wrong just yet no i mean and honestly you know since they should have started early next year the question of whether they do 75 25 versus 50 50 now really doesn't mean that much i mean they started way too late we're suffering the consequences actually of the money splurge of 2020 early 2021 and there's really it's built in and all that the fed can do is to say well what is built in which is another 10 to 15 i think higher ultimately of the price level at least we're not going to make it more than that we're going to slow it down from that position but so much is baked in right now let's just hope the fed doesn't go overboard and say oh my goodness we have to pull a vulcan moment and get the interest rates up to 10 or 15 i mean that would be certainly uncalled for but uh honestly whether it's 75 25 or 50 50 at this point given how late they've been it's not going to change the profile money this interest rate moves monetary policy is not like steering the wheel on the car you turn it you're on a mountain road and it moves to the right it it works 12 months later sometimes 18 months later you cannot operate like a precision instrument okay and i have to admit we've been late oh yeah there's inflation built in and that's that's going to be in in the works for the next six to nine to 12 months