저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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이란 전쟁 관련 최악의 시나리오(항만·정유시설 파괴)는 상당 부분 해소됐으나 유가는 90달러대 상단에 머물러 협상 난항이 우려됨. 항공사 연료비 부담으로 운임 인상 압력이 예상됨. 인플레이션 압력과 통화량 확대로 금리 인하는 어렵고 Fed의 다음 방향은 인상 쪽에 가까움. 단기(1~3개월)는 협상 결과 전까지 횡보 전망. 장기적으로는 AI가 경제를 견인한다고 낙관하며 주식 매도는 피하라고 함. 채권금리 상승 우려가 주식 하락 우려보다 크다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee was on the broadcast earlier this week and he was very bullish, thought things had actually bottomed. I don't know where you stand, but I want to know whether or not you agree. Well, I the stock market might have bottomed and I agree with Tom that we're going to hit all-time highs. The question is when?
Um and I don't think the short-term looks all that favorable to me, very honestly. Uh Uh I think what happened on Tuesday was the worst-case scenario and I was actually with Scott Wapner on that Tuesday was that Iran was going to if the US attacked actually destroy many of the ports and oil facilities and rigs up and down the the coast.
That's sort of off the table and I think what you got yesterday was the relief rally that that worst-case scenario is off the table, but uh you know, developments now, I mean oil is still in the upper 90s. Um and as you guys say that Venn diagram of of of of demands on each side looks like it has a zero intersection.
Um and uh you know, that that's a question. I mean Let me put it another way. We had Delta which was very optimistic. Then he said there's $2 billion more fuel expense that he is budgeting. Well, how is he going to cover that to keep earnings up? The only way to cover that to keep earnings up is to raise fares.
Yes, the past bookings have been good, but past all past bookings have been based on on oil that was 60. So, it's not based on oil that's 80 or 90 or or 100. And secondly, um I think any sort of rate cut is really off the table and I'm beginning to think that the most likely direction on the Fed is a rate hike.
Not imminently and I think that unless something gets really bad that uh that Powell will pass at his last meeting, which I do think that the next meeting will be his last meeting. But I'm looking at the money supply and I see it expanding and I'm looking at commodity prices and I see that expanding, fiscal policy, defense spending.
I don't see how the Fed can in fact uh ease at this point. That's going to be a challenge uh for bonds and and the equity market. Uh Professor, just go backwards for a second. Are you suggesting that Powell on his way out is going to raise rates or this is something that's going to have to wait for Kevin Warsh, too?
his last meeting. I do think it will, although he might stay on unless he says he'll stay on unless Trump clears him completely. He'll stay as a kind of thorn in the side of of Trump until he clears him completely, but as chair, I think it is going to be his last meeting and I think he's going to pass.
So, I think there's going to be no change. sounds to me that you're suggesting that the economic situation is such that the thorn in the side of Kevin Warsh is not going to be Jay Powell. The thorn in the side is going to be just the wherever we you think we are in this cycle. Yeah, I mean I mean right now, I mean I'll tell you he's got a much more difficult position than it looked like 3 months ago before 2 months ago before the war started.
I mean facing much more inflationary pressures than he did before facing, you know, an increase in credit money supply, which is something that you generally raise rates on to prevent that from getting like what we So, this is your This is your thesis. If this is your thesis and and somebody's watching the broadcast now and they're they're somebody who trades or or or invests in the market, they've been in some of the big tech companies.
We just had a the annual letter from Andy Jassy come out this morning says the business is on fire, the chip business is on fire, they're going to take on Nvidia, all this money's flowing into to AI and the like. Where do you put your money? Well, I would think, you know, if unless we get a much better resolution and I hope we do in the next 2 weeks or with an extension in the next 2 weeks, I really see a sideways market and I don't I don't see that long bond going down in in any hopes of Fed cuts, which some people might hope to stimulate, going up.
I still think I'm very optimistic on long run. I think AI is really going to boost this economy. are you in a stag You're saying not to buy bonds and it sounds like you're saying not to buy equities. So, where I mean Well, what I what I I'm saying that I don't see a lot of upside until we get a resolution and that is not looking as as good as I'd hope.
Which means what? A sideways market for 2 3 months? And by the way, it's very hard to predict exactly. Does that mean, you know, don't buy equities? Means hold equities. I'm saying don't sell equities. Listen, there's many times in history where the market moves sideways in preparation for a big rise once things get better.
So, you know, you know, I'm saying that right now I I have a hard time seeing a lot of near-term upside in the market. Professor, what does the Siegel family do with the extra cash it has right now? Uh the Siegel family would probably hold the extra cash. I don't know how many people have that extra cash.
Uh I'm still very very bullish on on stocks. In fact, if you want to know the truth, I think what I see happening, which is more inflation than we had thought, is more reason to go in stocks and bonds. I'm I'm more really worried about the bond rate going up than I'm worrying about the stock market going down.
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