저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치는 기업 이익이 장기적으로 연 8% 성장하므로 주가도 약 9년마다 두 배가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 정치·규제 뉴스보다 기업 실적과 사업 내용에 집중해야 하며, 일간 주가 확인이나 잦은 시세 조회는 의미가 없다고 본다. 변동성은 기회이므로 기업을 이해하고 장기 보유하라고 강조한다. 영상 후반부(인도 기업 이익 성장 및 '주가 2배 소요 기간' 주장)는 린치의 발언이 아닌 진행자의 추가 설명이다.
다듬은 글
So, corporate profits double about every 9 years. The stock market ought to double about every 9 years. It ought to double again in the 8 or 9 years after that cuz profits will go up 8% a year and stocks will follow. That's all there is to it. When managing a portfolio, do you pay much attention to the activities of Congress and and the regulators?
Did Ed Markey put this one up? I'm not sure of that. Uh I spend zero [clears throat] time uh thinking about what's happening down here in Washington and I uh spend little time thinking what's going on in Russia or China. I just deal with facts. When the economy's going down when when the economy's going the wrong way, I can deal with that.
This whole health uh care reform bill drove a lot of drug stocks down to low levels and I could say to myself, well, 60% of Johnson & Johnson's earnings are outside the United States. Their pharmaceutical drug business is all on patent. Nothing's coming off a patent. They only have 5% of sales from one product, which is Tylenol, which is already an over-the-counter drug and it's growing overseas.
I says, "Why is this stock gone from 58 to 36?" And these And these companies are already dealing in Japan and overseas with with uh They already have uh government controlling pharmaceutical prices. They've dealt with it. So, I deal with facts. They might This year, I thought it was very likely they'd have a bill pass on health care.
It didn't happen. They drove the stocks down, but I think the stocks would have rebounded anyway even if the health care bill was passed. So, I don't deal with what's happening in Congress or what's going to happen in the future. I just deal with what's happening in the economy and what's happening to companies I call.
How useful is the financial reporting in the general daily press to you and how useful should it be to investors in general? Okay. Uh It has improved dramatically uh not just in the press, but also company reporting. 10 years ago, companies didn't have interim balance sheets. It's hard to imagine. They only gave their balance sheet to you once a year.
Now, they show you quarterly what's happening to their inventories, what's happening to receivables. Uh in in now in uh in the in the major newspapers, they'll even show types of funds. They're now I think there's 2,500 companies in New York Stock Exchange. There's over 5,000 different mutual funds.
So, there's twice as many mutual funds as there are stocks. At least in the paper they explain what kind of fund this fund is. So, I think reporting has improved. They report earnings. But again, I think if you own auto stocks, you shouldn't be reading the financial part of the newspaper. On Wednesday, the the local newspaper, Tuesday some places, or on Saturday, they have a whole four pages on automobiles.
They talk about new models and they say this one stinks and this one's outstanding. They really If you own auto stocks, that's the part of the newspaper you should be in. You shouldn't be calling your broker four times a day to get stock quotes. It doesn't work. Getting up in the morning to look to see how your stock did yesterday is not useful.
It's All this stuff is just a waste of time. If you're adding up how much your stocks are worth, absolute waste of time. If you should be looking at the company when you get the quarterly reports, you should be If you're at the mall, imagine if you were in the re- If you're in the retailing industry or if you're in restaurant industry, you would have seen Taco Bell, you would have seen McDonald's.
You would have seen Toys "R" Us. I mean, you would have seen all these companies do terrifically well. You would have seen Bombay. You've seen Tandy with Radio Shack. And you would have seen Radio Shack roll across the country and pretty soon they were you know, 25 Radio Shacks in every major city and you said, "There's not much room for them to go." But they had a 20-year great run.
You That's what you're dealing with. You're not dealing with the minutia of today. You're dealing what's this company doing 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years from now. And if you're dealing with a cyclical and business is turning around, you wait for signs that business is slowing down. When you see it, you move on to something else.
Are you concerned about the volatility in the uh financial markets today? Do you think something needs to be done to reduce it? I I I love volatility. I I think I remember when uh in 19 uh '72, the market went from uh uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to 1. They had no debt. They never had a a restaurant close.
And uh I started buying at 7, but I I kept on to it and it went to 1. And it was the largest position in my portfolio in 1978 when it was bought out from by $42 by PepsiCo and I think it would have gone to 400 if they didn't buy it out. I think volatility is terrific. I think it is very I think these callers are very important.
I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public. I think that's not a very good thing. But I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important. But the market's going to go up and down. Well, human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25,000 years.
And some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down or the market will go up. So, I Volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs. I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own. If they don't understand what they own, they can own mutual funds.
Try and figure out mutual funds they own and keep adding to it. Over Basically, corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So, corporate profits double about every 9 years. The stock market ought to double about every 9 years. So, I think the next market's about 3,800 today, 3,700. I'm pretty convinced the next 3,800 points will be up.
It won't be down. The next 500 points, the next 600 points, I don't know which way they'll go. So, the market ought to double in the next 8 or 9 years. It ought to double again in the 8 or 9 years after that. Because profits will go up 8% a year and and stocks will follow. That's all there is to it.
You heard Peter Lynch say this. In the US, corporate earnings double roughly every 8 years, but it was in 1990s. Now, here's where it gets interesting. In India, long-term corporate profits growth has been even stronger. Typically around 11 to 15% annually. In strong economic cycle, that number jumps to 15 to 25%.
In weak phases, it slows down to 5 to 10%. But let's take conservative and let's assume just 12% growth. At 12%, earnings double roughly every 6 years, which means the market has no choice but to double every 5 to 6 years. No hype, no speculation, just math. But here's where things get more powerful.
If the market itself doubles in 6 years, what happens if you pick the right stocks? Like stocks that can double in 2 to 3 years. That's where wealth creation goes from average to extraordinary. This is exactly how great investors build massive wealth over time. But here's the catch. If you truly believe in these numbers, then panic selling makes zero sense because short-term falls, they are just noise.
The market might fall 5, 10, or even 20%, but your conviction should not fall with it because in the long run, earnings drive and earnings keep growing. So, the real question is, do you trust the math or the market noise?
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