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once I understood that better I think it made me a better investment investor I think Warren Buffett's right-hand Man Charlie Munger sat down this week with CNBC to discuss his advice for investing in 2023 and revealed some of the secrets to his multi-billion dollar wealth the 99 year old is the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway arguably the greatest holding company of all time generating a 3.6 million percent return for investors over 57 years a 1 000 investment in Berkshire in 1964 would be worth about 35 million dollars today for comparison a thousand dollars in a simple S P 500 Index would be worth about three hundred thousand dollars less than one percent of the performance of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger during the two and a half hour q a session manga gave us some advice that directly applies to the investing challenges that we face in 2023 which of course include the Raging inflation and persistently Rising interest rates after watching and note taking the entire session I hand selected a few clips that I'm going to show you today as they contain a ton of value for someone looking to improve their financial situation Nation the investing environment we face in 2023 is very different to that of the last decade and continues to evolve day by day the biggest challenges are of course the persistently High inflation environment and the subsequent higher interest rates that are needed to prevent it spiraling out of control well there's no question about the fact that as the interest rates have gone up it's it's hostile to stock prices but they should go up we couldn't have kept them Forever at zero and I just think this is one more damn thing to adapt to it cannot be understated how abnormal the zero percent interest rate environment of the past decade really was zero percent interest rates meant that safe places to put your money such as government bonds or savings accounts offered no return pushing people to take more risk to earn the same returns that they could achieve basically risk-free in the decade before zero percent interest rates meant that borrowing money was extremely cheap driving up household business and government debt and maybe most importantly for the stock market zero percent interest rates meant that business models that normally wouldn't be sustainable were able to survive for many years and appear like viable businesses today Major countries around the world face the worst inflation in decades and as is the cyclical nature of Economics we find ourselves heading away from Rock Bottom interest rates and back to a more normal credit environment there are headwinds in their Tailwinds and one of the headwinds is inflation and I think more inflation over the next 100 years is inevitable with given the nature of democratic politics we've seen our fair share of supply-side inflation recently where bottlenecks or geopolitics have sharply reduced Supply which has increased inflation but Charlie is talking about demand side inflation which can in part be driven by Reckless government policies the public people like you or me banks funds and other governments all participate in buying government debt to support their excess spending that isn't paid for by tax revenue but if there's a lack of buyers for the debt because government spending is far exceeding the demand for the debt then the Federal Reserve needs to step in and print new money and buy those bonds which in effect means that the US government for very long periods of time doesn't have to ever run a surplus to make up for its previous deficits increasing overall demand and driving persistent inflation that's one of the reasons The Daily Journal on Securities instead of government bonds owns common stocks instead of government bonds but as the end of his answer to this problem suggests the solution is to own businesses instead of government bonds and Munger of course doesn't mean be a full-time Trader looking at charts and trying to exploit tiny price movements as stocks fluctuate on a day-by-day basis he's talking about storing a portion of your wealth in a few high quality businesses and letting those businesses do the work for you as long as Costco keeps the faith the strong culture and their extreme low markup policy I don't see any stopping it Costco is one of the few businesses that manga owns personally outside of Berkshire Hathaway he has almost 100 million dollars personally invested in the company of which he's been a director since 1997.
and it has a marvelous future and it has a wonderful culture and it's been run by wonderful people and I I I I love everything about Costco I'm a total addict and I'm never going to sell a share what makes Costco a great business is its deep economic mode and a management team that strives to uphold that moat no matter what Costco could be a far more profitable business if it marked up its products at a similar rate to Walmart and its other major competitors but by choosing to sacrifice profit today they've essentially built this powerful reputation for having the lowest prices and that's been reciprocated by customers ordering in higher volume over time and by applying this culture as they expand into new markets they're likely to deliver High Returns on their invested Capital but it's not just enough to invest your money in high quality businesses because after role investing is a game of outlaying money today to get more back in the future and if you think if a business's future profits as this fixed finite figure that we can't influence then the way we can influence how we perform on an investment is by carefully considering the price we pay for that business the trouble with cost closed it's 40 times earnings but except for that it's a perfect damn comedy Costco is an incredible business that will likely be thriving for many years to come but the price of Entry to own a piece of the business has become too high for the investment to make sense I regard alibaba's one of the worst mistakes I ever made in in thinking about Alibaba I got Charmed with the idea of their position on the Chinese internet I didn't stop to realize there's still a goddamn retailer I got a little out of focus and that made me overestimate the future returns from Alibaba manga during the Q a session described how he made this exact mistake with his investment in Alibaba the Chinese online retailer which has been one of the most popular stocks among value investors of the last few years Munger initially invested into Alibaba in q1 of 2021 at an average price of between 220 and 260 per share and while he was able to reduce his cost basis by making further Investments at lower prices his initial investment went on to Fall by almost 80 percent in two years in hindsight Munger believes that he overestimated the future cash flows of Alibaba and was therefore willing to pay more for the stock than he should have given what he knows about the business today on the other hand if you don't overpay for a business then you really don't need to worry about the daily or monthly price fluctuations of the stock at all take thought Industries for example a stock that I've held for five years I've watched it Go from from 130 to 40 to 150 back down to 70 and then back up to 100 recently but while the stock chart fluctuates wildly the intrinsic value of the business does not so every time its price Falls below the value I buy more and when it's above the value I just hold the stock and over the long term that's meant that I've been able to generate a pretty nice double-digit compounded return out of the business the good businesses don't stay cheap you've got to somehow recognize a good business before it's recognizable as a good business that's very hard to do the fundamental idea is to find the infrequent times that a really good business is selling relatively cheap that way if the business doesn't perform as you expect the price you paid ensures you'll still make a reasonable return you will find by and large in America if it's really a great business it's at least 25 times earnings and maybe 30 or 35 or something so that makes it a much harder of course because if something goes wrong you can lose a lot of your investment keymonger is talking about what happens when you pay a premium for a high quality business potentially the business does meet the high expectations that you had when you bought the stock and you still do reasonably well but if you do this then you're also exposing yourself to the reasonable chance that the business underperforms your expectations and you lose a ton of money and I honestly think Tesla is a really good example of this five years ago the stock had extremely high expectations for a business that wasn't profitable and carried a significant bankruptcy risk in hindsight of course Tesla went on to perform extremely well and meet those very high expectations that the market had and it's been a great investment over the past five years but it could have easily gone the other way with investors losing absolutely everything so it's really important to think about what happens if the business doesn't meet these massive expectations of 20 30 40 per year growth what happens if they don't grow will I be completely wiped out or is the price that I'm paying for the stock allowing some kind of margin of safety for me to still do okay if things don't pan out as I expect in the interview Monger explained a few of his mental models that play an important role in your investing decisions over the next decade what is the appropriate percentage these of your net worth you should put it in the stock if you think it's an absolute sense well if you're a kind of fellow who's right and when you think something is a cinch the answer is a hundred percent or maybe 150 percent and name one factor that dominates doing bad decisions it would be what I call denial if the truth is unpleasant enough
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