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결론: 피터 쉬프 발언을 근거로 달러 약세·금리 상승·부채 위기를 경고하며, 진행자는 경기침체에 강한 오헤이오(OHI) 보유와 SDS 적립매수로 시장 하락에 대비하라고 주장한다. 피터 쉬프 발언: 올해 달러가 위안화 대비 사상 최저(6위안 하회)를 기록할 수 있다고 전망하며, 달러 약세 시 미 10년물 금리는 상승할 것이라 봤다. 해외 투자자는 환헤지 비용 때문에 미 국채 매수 유인이 없고, 연준 대차대조표 축소와 중국·일본의 국채 매도로 채권 수요가 부족하다고 주장했다. 채권 강세장(금리 하락 추세)이 끝나고 금리가 더 오를 것이라 예측했다. 부채 문제: 미국 국가부채가 21조 달러에 근접했고 개인 신용카드·학자금·자동차 대출도 늘었다고 지적했다. 금리 상승은 과다 레버리지 기업과 가계에 타격을 줘 붕괴의 마지막 도미노가 될 것이라 봤다. 2008년 금융위기 때처럼 큰 폭의 증시 붕괴가 올 수 있다고 경고했다. 진행자 NIV의 전망: 시장 붕괴가 불가피하다고 보고 경기침체에 강한 업종 투자를 권한다. 오헤이오(OHI, 요양·노인 주거 리츠)를 대표 종목으로 제시했으며, PER 14.9, 배당수익률 약 9.8%, 장부가치 상승을 근거로 들고 2008년 50% 하락 후 1년 내 회복했다고 설명한다. 부채비율은 우려 요인으로 언급했다. 포트폴리오 및 헤지: 진행자는 S&P500 인버스 ETF인 SDS를 매달 적립식으로 매수 중이며, 장기적으로 포트폴리오의 약 25%까지 확대해 시장 하락을 헤지하려 한다. 원자재 ETF DJP를 두 번째 헤지 수단으로 언급했다. 기타: 영상 후반부는 금주·체중 감량·구독자 수 등 개인 일상 이야기이며, 시장 예측과 무관하다. 출연자 전망 요약: 쉬프는 달러 사상 최저, 금리 상승, 채권 강세장 종료를 예상하고, 진행자는 증시 붕괴 가능성을 높게 보며 SDS 매수와 OHI 보유를 유지한다.
다듬은 글
welcome back everybody we're gonna start things a little bit differently I want to play a quick couple of minutes of this Peter Schiff video and we'll use that to get rolling on our video so here we go these hedge funds were out there it was the next piece short and everybody was convinced though the wands gonna get killed I remember saying these guys are gonna get killed on this trade it's gonna go the other way the Chinese yuan had its biggest rise in nine years last year and in fact I believe that this year the dollar is gonna hit an all-time record low I think we're gonna crack below 6 to 1 in yuan that's never happened we're 6.4 right now the record lows about 6 1 but I think we're gonna crack through 6 I think that's very significant I don't think the dollar will hit a record low against the euro or the yen this year but it could easily do it I think next year in 2019 the dollar was falling in at the late 1980s from 85 to 87 the dollar got killed now what happens when the dollar is going down interest rates are gonna go up and what has happened in the yield now on the US 10-year is still low it's about two point six three or four or something like that but it's the highest in almost four years and why is this significant see because if the dollar is going down right why would anybody outside the United States want to buy a 10 year Treasury yield fielding you know 2.6 percent I mean you can only do it if you hedge the currency but if you actually look now at the cost of hedging US Treasuries it creates a negative yield so you can't make money the cost of putting on a hedge right now in dollars wipes out the entire yield of US Treasuries so there is no real investment demand outside the United States for Treasuries because nobody could buy a Treasury and make any money right not unless they want to gamble on the dollar turning around but why would you want to take that gamble especially if you look at stocks all around the world stock markets everywhere going up who is gonna settle for a lousy 2.6 percent return and take all that currency risk and of course there's also interest rate because if interest rates go up bonds go down now Americans are gonna buy Treasuries one because they're broke they don't have any my to buy Treasuries but again they don't want to buy stocks who's gonna want to buy a low yielding Treasury and of course the Federal Reserve has already basically said they're out of the Treasury buying game right now I don't believe them I've never believed them but they've been talking about the fact that they are going to unwind their balance sheet right now it's about four and a half trillion dollars and it's you know it's it hasn't shrunk at all since they've been talking about it but everybody believes that they're gonna strength the balance sheet well in order to shrink the balance sheet that means there are net seller of Treasuries that means the treasures that they hold they're gonna let them make sure they're not gonna roll them over so that means the Treasury has to find it an alternative a replacement buyer for those Treasuries well who's going to do it now China there were already rumors like a week ago that China is finished buying dollars that they don't want to buy them anymore either or Treasuries which means they're going to do the same thing as the Fed but of course if the central bank of the United States doesn't want to buy anymore Treasuries why should the central bank of China want to buy them right it makes sense now they came out with a rumor denying that but I read the denial and you know what they really didn't deny it so to me you know where there's smoke there's fire plus why the hell would the Chinese want to buy any more Treasuries so if the Chinese aren't buying Treasury though the Japanese and the Chinese are the two biggest fart credit Japanese don't look like they're buying them anymore either so I don't think there's any real buyers I just think they're sellers I think that we're gonna break the downtrend this big bull market this dirty whatever your bull market the bond bull markets start and believe it or not in it probably an 8 in the early 80s and you know we've had you know we've had you know cyclical you know declines but yields in general have been coming down for all that time that's about to change yields are now going higher much higher but here's a problem America's probe America has more debt than ever before the national debt is getting closer now to 21 trillion we're in nineteen 2008 it was what not even 10 trillion when we started the financial crisis so the debt is more than doubled since the financial crisis why do we have a financial crisis because we have too much debt well now we have much more right and it's not just the the federal debt that's gone up American individuals are in debt more than they were back then they have more credit card debt they have more student loans and they have more car loans we don't have more mortgage debt but that's because homeownership is at a 50 60 year low so you can't have a mortgage if you don't have a house but people don't have the home equity that they had I mean people are broke people are living a paycheck to paycheck in the United States so we can't withstand rising interest rates what has really been propping up the US economy is cheap money and cheap gas rankest oil prices collapsed you know a few years ago and that gave everybody a boost and we've had all all right so the way I see it if there's if there's this much debt in the economy and not only private but public and we know from the past that sometimes private debt becomes public debt when they bail out the banks so you just just assume that all the debts the same doesn't matter public or private but you have all this debt so if you have all this debt in the in the currency and in the economic system then there's not a lot of faith so what he what I think he's saying here is that other countries and people in our country nobody wants to invest in the dollar because we see what a failure the system is because because of the outrageous amounts of debt like you say we're going on we're gonna break 21 trillion dollars in US debt which is just I mean I doubt the founding fathers would even be able to fathom that number and that's where that's where we think that's reality so what happens is to attract more buyers into the dollar through the notes the Federal Reserve has to raise the interest rates up so they have to make the note more appealing so why is that bad well when you raise the interest rates up you're essentially putting your gonna start pulling money out of the stock market because if I can let's say the interest let's say an extreme example is the Fed pushes the rate up to 6% well I can maybe get a 5 or 6 percent return on a company but I can get a guaranteed 6% return from the government almost zero risk I'm gonna go into the bond and get that and go after that the other problem with that with the interest rate going up is any outstanding debt so any company that's over leveraged who's paying who basically had free money because they took a loan out at almost a zero percent interest rate if that's not a fixed loan and now the interest rates are going up now they owe more money on what they took out originally so now what they were managing as a debt at 2% might not be manageable at the 6% so the rising interest rates are sort of the like the last domino for all this - for all this to take off now there's a lot of people out there that are still like bullish like oh we've got two or three more years they might be right I mean it's I don't really know that anybody can predict anything that accurately even down to the year but what I do know is that the debt problem is not changing direction where the underlying problem is only getting worse essentially you're gonna have this collapse happen at some point right so we're not we're not paying down our debt and hopefully you know we could say well if we keep this up we can avoid chaos no we're we're continuing to fall farther and farther in debt there's at this point there's almost no way out of this and I'm I think that's kind of what Peter Schiff was trying to get across he's also if nobody's ever heard of this guy he's the guy that predicted the 2008 financial collapse if you go back and watch some of the videos like some of the news broadcasts from like a week or two weeks before the collapse it's eerily similar to what we're hearing today like they saw some some volatility in there they said the same kind of things that they're saying on the news today so like by the dips everything's fine don't worry about it this guy Peter Schiff he got on and he was he was saying the exact opposite of everybody else he's saying look this there's you know at that point it was the subprime lending and the housing market collapse he was warning everybody about it and it was it's the same problem it's it's a debt problem and he said look the markets gonna collapse it's gonna be one of the biggest collapse since I think he's 87 which was the last one and he was right he was dead right so I like to listen to this guy because it seems like he was the only person that was that hit the nail on the head as far as the 2008 bubble and let me find I found another interesting chart and we try to find that one sec so I saw this on Twitter and I'll put a link to my Twitter and the bottom of the video if you want to look at it but I thought this was really interesting it's basically a US corporate debt outstanding as a percent of GDP so they have the late late 1980s boom then you can see the tech bubble and I don't know if you remember I was I was pretty young but the basically was the dot-com bubble it's also been called so here's the tech bubble and then here's the housing bubble and this is what they're calling the everything bubble I mean I thought that was pretty interesting it's it's a it's a different way of looking at it but yeah I thought that was a great name for it it's the everything bubble so what do you do what do you what do you what are you supposed to do in this situation like I said before you're gonna want to invest in recession-proof companies so if you're gonna continue continue to be in the stock market you're gonna have to accept that it's probably going to go down at some point if not this year the next year but you know who can really predict it but just bank on that some point it's gonna go down so you can invest but invest in things that are going to be safe and recession-proof and one of those companies that I think would survive is Omega healthcare investors so that's one stock who is gonna discuss today I can't remember if I discuss this in a previous video but um we're gonna I'm just gonna go through it real quick so here's why I think it's recession proof one is it's a skilled nursing facility and an assisted living facility so neither of those things go away with the recession so you have a recession the economy turns upside down people are still sick people are still old people still need care and it's just not something that's a luxury that you can just get rid of like a Netflix or you know going to the movies or going to a baseball game it's it's not a luxury so it's definitely something that's going to be around no matter how the economy is doing so let's look at the financials and I'm working on a format I'll hopefully have it finished by next video so it'll be a nice clean-looking way to look at the statistics for the stock instead of this ugly calculator that I use but I so here's a chart of Book value is one point four six and the book value is continuously going up which is another thing I liked so if you can see here this is the book value per share and that's a nice increase so your p/e ratio is fourteen point nine one so generally you want to under a fifteen so that's good the yield this is what attract me initially is nine point seven seven percent which is a huge huge I dividend yield and the five-year average is a six point four one so as far as a percent return you're looking at a six point seven percent return the only thing I would watch out for is eight is the debt to equity ratio but I've noticed with real estate they tend to have they tend to run at a higher debt to equity ratio than other companies and the current ratio was a little low again because that's named that issue so the debt in a recession the debt might affect this company negatively obviously but I just don't think it would affect it to the point of insolvency so I think you'd be all right there this is Ohi October 6 2008 and this was the lowest it got during the collapse which was 925 so it lost you know 50 50 % relatively quick which a lot of things did but it didn't stay that low very long in by the end of the year by the end of 2008 that recovered half of what it lost and then it didn't quite get fully recovered until a year later and then we've got our full price back so I mean some companies got wiped right out I don't remember if you remember like Lehman Brothers and it was at Bear Sterns some companies just got wiped off the map but this company survived so survived 2008 it took a 50% loss and gained all everything back within a year a year in a couple of months I think that's pretty pretty recession proof so that was one thing I looked at alright so here's my Robin Hood app up usually I start out with us but I just want to start out with that Peter Shiff video because I thought it was pretty interesting especially when you compare it to what else you're hearing on the news so my total return - the dollar 29 cuz I this was one of my earlier stocks that I purchased and it was early January when the market had hit its peak had its highest ever ever in history so that's when I decided to start investing which is my typical timing abilities I have a return of - 129 today's return was a dollar 20 this is currently my third largest position is in Ohi now looking at it more recently they had an earnings call back on Valentine's Day and the stock did went up consistently over the next couple days but all in all I think it's a it's a pretty sound company other than a little bit amount the the the debt ratio I don't like that much but other than that I think you'd be a relatively safe place to to continue to get a nice dividend to a good place to put your money recession-proof and over the long haul I think that this company's just gonna keep going up and up and in value so that's a chai let's look at the rest of my portfolio real quick I'm up for the day $4 23 cents and I just tried scrolling with my mouse what's sort of tanking me right now is my bet against the market which is SDS so I'm doing dollar cost averaging with this and the idea behind it is you put X number of dollars into the stock every month or every week or whatever and that way the idea is if the price was up that week you're buying less shares of it you're buying less shares at the higher cost if the price was down that week you're buying more shares at the lower costs so by putting X number of dollars each time you purchase it over time you're you you buy less stocks when they're expensive and you buy more when they're cheap so that's called dollar costs I believe it's called a dollar cost advertised so what I'm doing is just slowly buying it every week and right now it's my largest position I think eventually I want to get like 25% of my portfolio hedging against the S&P because I just don't see a viable way out of an inevitable collapse so that's kind of my between that and the DJP which is the gold there the commodities ETF those are gonna be my two my two places to hedge against the market all right so 200 invested yes I got that 200 invested we're good there sobriety yes I didn't have time to think about drinking I've been working a lot and I've been staying very busy so there's another strategy you can use if you're if you're struggling with sobriety it's just keep yourself busy just take on as many projects try to start some as Jeremy says over on the financial education Channel which I'll link to below start trying to create some what's he call them passive revenue streams so just try to get some work on your income work on getting your income because the more money you're making the more sorry the the more money you're bringing in the more you can invest the more you're gonna save the more you're gonna make so keep yourself busy and then you you really don't have time to drink that I lose point six pounds yes I'm actually surprised by what what I'm losing it seems like it's going rather quickly but I'll show you so I'm at two twenty two point six and last week I was at two fifty four point four so that's almost three pounds in a week and I don't really understand how maybe it's the swimming but I was only my my target for fiscal week seven was to 31.8 and I'm at the two twenty two point six so I'm still ahead of schedule that goal is going really well I'm pretty happy with that one let's see it seems like I just feel like I'm not putting in any effort and I'm getting results which I don't I guess you can contribute it to not drinking a 12-pack every night but I just didn't expect it to go that quickly at all so we're good on that front and then 20 subscribers no and I'm just going to start putting how many subscribers I do have so I'm up to five I'm very happy with that five subscribers so if you're one of those subscribers and you're listening thank you very much and tell your friends and family and as always stay sober and stay profitable and let me know what you think whether you disagree with me or agree with me about our debt situation and what it means for the stock market and what it means for the economy in general if you completely disagree with me I'd like to know and I would love to have a discussion about that and if you agree with me tell me some things that you see that I didn't mention maybe some some red flags that you're noticing and I'll include them in my video next week but as always stay sober stay profitable and I'll see you guys next week thank you
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