저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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피터 린치는 이 영상에서 주식은 복권이 아니라 그 뒤에 기업이 있는 것이라며, 무엇을 보유하는지 1~2분 내에 설명할 수 있어야 한다고 강조한다. 핵심 주장은 이해 가능한 단순한 기업에 투자하라는 것이다. 자신이 이해한 기업(던킨도넛 등)에서 10~15배 수익을 냈다고 언급한다. 경제 예측과 금리 예측은 거의 쓸모없는 시간 낭비라고 주장한다. 금리를 맞힐 수 있다면 억만장자가 될 것이라는 농담을 덧붙인다. 대신 중고차 가격, 재고 변화 등 실제 산업 지표를 관찰하라고 권한다. 산업이 terrible→mediocre→good→terrific으로 개선될 때 주가가 오른다고 설명한다. 시장 하락은 역사적으로 매년 약 10% 조정이 2년에 한 번, 25% 이상 약세장은 약 6년에 한 번 발생한다고 제시한다. 하락을 두려워하기보다 이를 기회로 활용하라고 조언한다. 장기 보유 사례로 월마트(1970년 상장 후 10년 뒤에도 큰 수익), 마이크로소프트, 스미스클라인(타그амет), 크라이슬러 미니밴, 포드 토러스 등을 든다. 주가가 떨어졌다는 이유만으로 매수하지 말고, 기업을 이해하고 부채와 재무상태를 확인하라고 강조한다. 카이저인더스트리 사례로 기업 가치 대비 저평가와 자산 가치를 설명하며, 이해하지 못한 채 하락에 팔면 손실이 커진다고 경고한다. 이 영상은 2020년 1월 2일 게시된 과거 인터뷰·강연 발췌로, 특정 자산의 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
and the single single most important thing to me and the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they don't actually you really press them down they'd say the reason I own this is the suckers going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain upstairs you can't explain to a 10 year old in two minutes or less why you own a stock you should known it and that's true I think about 80% of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company and they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a 1 megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk floating point data io io array processor when optimizing compiler a 16 dual port memory a double diffused metal-oxide-semiconductor monolithic logic chip with a plasma matrix vacuum fluorescent display it has a 16-bit dual memory it as a UNIX operating system for whetstone mega flop ali's silicon a minute a high bandwidth that's very important 6 gigahertz double metallization communication protocol an asynchronous backward compatibility peripheral bus architecture for wave interleaved memory a token ring and change backplane and it does in 15 nanoseconds of capability now if you want a piece a crap like that you will never make money never somebody will come along with more whetstone so less Whetstone's or big a mega flop or a small Omega flop you won't have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money in dunkin donuts i can understand it i when there was recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports I mean I just been out you know I can understand it and you laugh I made 10 or 15 times my money and Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful the money the public when they by refrigerator they get a Consumer Reports they buy micro well then they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or they go what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get a mobile travel guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin Travel Guide people hear a tip on the bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in it before sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they've got abuse a child fade in look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we were being driven to and it's self fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way they were that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up coca-cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy remember coca-cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel's are unless they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets it's a company behind every stock the company does well the stocked as well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one to predict the stock market they try to predict the interest rates I mean this is it if anyone predict the interest rates right three times in a row that'd be a billionaire concern there's not that many billionaires on the planet it's very you know I took I had logic sighted syllogism in the study of these when I was in Boston College they can't be that many people can pick the interest rate specific lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I had a lot of people this rumor around in 1981 and 82 when we had a 20% prime rate with double-digit inflation double-digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I Stella so I remember every time we got at the worst recession since the depression so what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market would be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average a year for now would be X that we're gonna have a full-scale recession or interest rates gonna be 12% that's useful stuff didn't never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that now I have to be I'd be fair I'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or m1 and m2 3 B and all these all these M's the I'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when I own a lot of stocks I want to know what's happening used car prices when used car prices are going up it's a very good indicator when I own hotel stock someone wrote the hotel aqua sees you know chemical stock someone else have the president these are facts the lumen inventories go down five straight months that's relevant I can feel with at home affordability I want to know about I own Fannie Mae right on the housing stock these are facts you can direct an arc facts of his economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and interest rates Alan Greenspan's a very honest guy he would tell you that he can't predict interest rates he could tell what short rates is gonna do the next six months try and stick him on what the long term rate will be three years ago they'll say I don't have any idea so how are you the investor supposed to take interest rates if they had a Federal Reserve can do it so I think that's what you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you're learning history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10% or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10% we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and so 52 fives in 93 years about once every two years a market Falls 10% all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six year the markets gonna have a 25% decline that's all you need to know you need to know the markets can go down sometime if you're not ready for that you should know it starts and it's good when it happens did you like a sock at 14 it goes to 6 that's great you understand a company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows and they're gonna happen you'll be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what your own so I think that's the key to element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well known company Walmart went public in October of 1970 1971 public already had a great record in at 15 years performance brake balance sheet you could await 10 years and you're very conservative estimate show this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operate in small towns you're afraid they only make it in separate states you want to wait till they go to more states you keep waiting you can about Walmart 10 years after one public and made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would've made 5 our times money but you can wait 10 years after well McGuinn public and made 30 over 30 times your money you can wait three years after Microsoft went public made 10 times your money if you knew something about software I know nothing less offer if you nasarah software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's gonna win compact IBM I don't was gonna win Japanese computers I know Microsoft ms-dos is the right thing you could've on Microsoft again and I'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call them you don't need to do this it's a the you need an edge to make money to people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of SmithKline this is a stock that had tagamet you didn't have to buy SmithKline when tagged meth was doing critical trials you don't have to buy SmithKline with TaqMan just talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought Smith fine when tagging that first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father your a nurse or druggist you're writing all these prescriptions tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers there's a wonderful pill for the company piece of you to stop taking it the ulcer came back see it wasn't wouldn't a crummy product but they took it for a bokken and went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money I mean all the druggist all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're out buying oil companies you know we're brilliant it happens and then three years later or four years later Glaxo even a bigger Cup is a huge company British company fraud zantac which was a better at that time an improved product and you could have seen that take market share do well get bottle axial and triple your money so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry I think of people that you've worked in the auto industry let's say you're an auto dealer the last 10 years you woulda seen Chrysler come up with a minivan you see if your Buick dealer or a Toyota T a lot of dealer you would've seen the Chrysler deal should packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on Chrysler a year after the minivan came out Ford introduces the tourists able the most successful line of cars in the last 20 years Ford one up seven fold on the tour stable so if your car dealer you will need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetimes over you don't need a lot of five baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so in your own industry you're gonna see a lot of stocks and that's what bothers me they're good stocks out there looking for you and people just aren't listening that they're just not watching it and they have incredible edges people have been ages over me they work in ministry I see alumina industries coming down in inventories coming down six straight months they see from an improving and America today you know you know it's hard to get an EPA permanent for a bowling alley never mind an aluminum smelter so you know when alone that gets tight you just can't build seven aluminum smelters so when when you see this coming you could say wait a second I can make some money when an industry goes from terrible to mediocre the stock goes north when it goes from mediocre to good the stock goes north and it goes from good to terrific the stock goes north there's lots of ways to make money in your own industry you can be a supplier in the industry you can be a customer this thing this thing happens in the paper industry it happens in the steel industry it doesn't happen every week but if you're your Sun field you'll see a turn you'll see something in the publishing industry these things come along and it's just mind-boggling people throw it away one of the things I find the rule couple rules I want to throw can I find useful excuse me there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much huh you know how much further gonna go down I remember Paul Roy went from one hundred and thirty to a hundred people said here's this great company great record but if it gets below 100 you know just by every share you know and it didn't get below 100 Bob people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 100 it's not 95 what I buy within a year was 18 and there's kind of no debt I mean there's a company was just so overpriced they went down I did the same thing in my I think my first or second year fidelity Kaiser industries have gone from $26 here to 16 I said how much more we're gonna go with 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser industries at 14 I said you know it's bad for 26 to 16 I was gonna go what can I called my mother and said mom you're gonna look at this guy's ministries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10 well I went to six and went to five and went to four and went to three and I unfortunate happen rapidly or I would probably be still caddying or working at the stop and shop but it happened fast is able to is compressed that uh and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here these Kaiser industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they'll Kaiser broadcast and then kinds of sand gravel ties of Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early to sit might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that itself so we'll achieve it but they had no debt and the whole company at three was telling at about seventy five million and that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with his company sign for seventy five million I was a little premature at sixteen but I said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their Cheryl Lisicki they passed our chairs and kind of cement the best our chairs it has aluminum they passed out the public here sometimes of steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock I got from twenty six to sixteen and then it can to ten what would you do when went to nine what would you do willing to eat what would you do one went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then I went down and they don't know what to do now if you flip a coin you walk around the block you know what do you do it psychiatrist haven't worked so far I've never seen them running endocytic the psychological psychiatry fund I've never seen listen for the with the SEC to make it through the mutual fund so I they haven't seen the help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the the so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down
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