Legendary investor Peter Lynch on stock picking 'The sucker's going up' is not a good reason

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피터 린치는 개인투자자들이 대형 가전·항공권은 신중히 고르면서 주식은 근거 없이 산다고 지적하며, '주가가 오르고 있다'는 것은 매수 이유가 될 수 없다고 강조한다. 좋은 종목은 스토리와 재무제표(현금 vs 부채, 성장률+배당률이 PER 근처인 구조)로 고르며, 과거 TJX·스톱앤숍 등 대박 사례를 든다. 금융위기 이후 은행 대출 관리가 개선됐다고 보며, 경기침체 예측은 항상 존재하고 과거 13번 침체 후 회복이 있었다고 말한다. 미래는 예측할 수 없다고 명시한다.

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01. we are now joined by a very special guest can we call him a legend I think we're going to Legendary investor Peter Lynch he is with us from Boston this morning to share's perspective on the economy markets and the work he's doing for the Catholic schools Foundation Peter of course is the vice chairman of fidelity management research and Advisory Board member of fidelity funds from 1977 to 1990 he managed the mellin fund growing it from you ready for this $2 million to $4 billion in 1990 at the time of his retirement by what you know is what Peter taught us and it's so nice to see you this morning Peter good to be here so let's talk about bu what you know I'm so curious these days how you're thinking about the economy well I think people they're investing individual stocks it's it's sad they're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight or they're careful of the money and they'll hear put a stock on the bus and they'll put or $10,000 on it they have no idea what they do so you're really going to be careful look at the company look at the balance sheet what is the reason the stock should be higher the sucker going up it's not a good reason is your sense though that the style of investing uh that you pioneered is still doable and winnable today well I think looking for something different looking for something that's a good story I mean who would have guess TJX a local company would have gone up 50 fold or Stop and Shop would go up tfold or or Analog Devices or Nvidia I couldn't pronounce Nvidia so you have to find a company that's either a turnaround or company is going to grow like Panera or you know Family Dollar stores I'm not saying they buys now but that's what's made our you know Sears has rolled over so you know so Kmart's rolled over IBM slowed down but we've had new companies come along I that's the nature you have to be looking for new companies and look at the balance sheet if you can add five and five and get reasonably close close to 10 you should be able to look at a balance you say here's two depressed companies they've gone from 50 to three one compan got three in cash and no debt one's got 3 million debt no cash which one are you going to buy I mean that not too hard to do Peter I I watch watch you closely because I was in the business back then and I don't do you remember how many snls went from mutuals to stock trade that you made just Buu bucks on back then and I mean I don't know if you I don't know if you missed any of those and they were all big Winners they're all big Winners they were all big Winners back then I just what do you think of the financial sector right now and what happened we saw with First Republic and uh I I just like to get your Insight there since you you were so good at that sector you know we had a terrible financial crisis in 991 I think every almost every major Bank in Texas went under Bank in New England when the oldest banks in the country went under it's like you know you know in 0809 the banks doing these no do loans and second mortgages and Home Improvement loans and people are buying boats with it now the bank's being much more careful so we've gone through other crisises some banks will go under you know 400 went under after 0809 now we have stress tests I think the banking system has improved there'll be some companies going there that's the that's the nature of it know it's nothing like imagine 19881 we had double digit inflation double digit unemployment and people were the Japanese CR take over the world I mean we were hopeless I mean you know there's always something to worry about I'd really my over 50 years of doing this I I think I'd be worried if there was you know something didn't bring up something to worry about that's the nature of business I I I was joking because I'm a rean guy you know and I was there I started at at Marill in 1981 so I remember I remember what happened I remember my feelings in 1981 and I remember my feelings how I felt by 1985 and you had a Tailwind I had a Tailwind because of what we did we're not going to do that again we're not going to cut taxes we're not going to uh stimulate the private sector we're we're kind of headed the other way did did you have a Tailwind will we ever have a Tailwind again with this generation well we've had 13 recessions since we're over two and we've had 13 recoveries maybe we're going to have one if this is a recession it's probably the most predicted one ever you know I never know when we're going to go I'd love to know the future i' I think I'd give it would help it be a better investment I'd pay five extra dollars for next year's Wall Street Journal it would really help I cannot predict the future but this one this recession is so expected so predicted maybe it's coming I don't know