저자: 래리핑크 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 팬데믹 이후 경기 회복은 오래 걸릴 것이며, 시장 낙관은 과도할 수 있어 변동성이 클 것으로 본다. 회복 속도: 2019년 수준으로 돌아가는 데 상당한 시간이 걸릴 것이며, 중소기업 영향은 아직 충분히 드러나지 않았다. 대기업은 자본시장 접근성이 개선되어 재무 안정화가 이뤄졌다. 정책과 사회: 시장은 더 실용적(pragmatic) 사회를 받아들이며 높은 감염률을 용인하는 것처럼 보이나, 감염이 재확산되면 시장이 앞서간 것일 수 있다. 산업 회복: 일부 산업은 빨리, 일부는 늦게 회복될 것이며, 식당 등 소규모 자영업은 생계 수준 회복에 그칠 수 있어 추가 재정 부양 필요성이 제기된다. 백신·치료제: 항바이러스제와 백신 개발에 낙관적이나, 시점은 6개월~2년으로 불확실하다고 봤다. 근무 방식: 블랙록 직원 대부분이 원격근무를 성공적으로 수행했으나 본인은 사무실 근무를 선호한다. 향후 완전 복귀보다는 원격과 출근이 혼합되며, 이는 도시 혼잡 감소 등 지속가능성 측면의 이점이 될 것으로 본다. ESG: 팬데믹과 인종 불평등 이슈로 ESG(환경·사회·지배구조) 관심이 더 커질 것이며, 기업의 사회적 역할이 중요해질 것이라고 주장한다. 고객 자금 유입도 줄지 않았다. 정부 협력: 블랙록의 정부 자문 사업(연준 관련 포함)은 운용자산이 자사 대차대조표가 아니라 수탁(fiduciary) 구조라는 점을 강조하며 '대마불사' 우려에 선을 긋는다. 시장 전망: 2020년 미국 대선과 팬데믹 불확실성으로 향후 1년간 큰 변동성을 예상한다. 그럼에도 시장은 불확실성 속에서도 선방했으며, 대기 중인 막대한 현금이 투자될 필요가 있다고 말했다.
다듬은 글
when you look at the pandemic the lockdown and the kind of recession were left with how difficult will it be to get back on our feet I believe it's just gonna take quite a bit quite a long time for us to get fully back to hell I'd say the 2019 levels we still have not witnessed that full impact on small and medium businesses on the other hand we've seen large corporations having full access to the capital markets and we've had a profound change from the depth of the third week of March where most companies have had the ability to access liquidity and capital even this week American Airlines is back in March we were questioning the viability of some airlines and so large corporations had a great ability to stabilize their their financial position and now the question is how fast can these industries in all industries reboot itself to more of a normal business model I do believe Americans and throughout the world people want to find some sorts of normality and that normality is you know everybody wants and we have some governmental leaders focusing on those issues and the real debate will be can we have a society that becomes a society that was highly compassionate to a society that is more pragmatic and right now the marketplace is is looking at a more pragmatic society it is accepting a higher infection rate which then will lead to some higher mortality and that's going to be a balance how much can society bear the rise of infection rates which in many cases may be good because we have a higher percent of our population that have maybe have the antibodies and so that's going to be the real issue in and if we can have a more normalized economy sooner then I think the marketplace is validated by that's not by the by its prices now on the other hand if we see rising infection rates in the coming weeks or months and we have to go backwards again and we have to find a way to become more compassionate then the markets are probably ahead of themselves and so these are going to be the real questions about where we are related to the rate of disease and the need for normality and I think these are very hard questions I was actually asked by a leading politician a governmental leader and asked the question what should they do should they be more pragmatic or more compassionate and these are very hard questions harder questions for democracies than they are for out of crowded countries and so we'll see how this plays out it may play out very well in one country it may play out poorly in another country but I don't think we have enough information to know at the same time we have our we have the science related to antivirals of science towards some form of vaccination and that will lead to more normality the faster we have those types of protocols you know Larry we talked about a v-shape recovery we talked about W shape recovery is it you know because we're just testing and going along to see if the infection rates go up how do you think that recovery will look like is it going to be very patchy or because we fell so hard it'll be quicker to go up I think some industry is going to be quicker to come up I think some industry's going to be slower to come up you know I've been to different I was in Colorado this past weekend and they they they're they opened up more but in and opening up means only maybe let's say at a restaurant they could only eat outside these owners or restaurants are still not making and living there they may be breaking even they may be able to help their employees make some living but that does not give them the obviously normality yet and so this is what I'm trying to suggest we don't know the real impact of small and medium businesses yet we don't you know is there gonna be a need for another fiscal stimulus to help beast the large component of small and medium businesses as I said large companies in many case have been already been able to stabilize their financial position so I don't know how this is all gonna play out and I'm optimistic though that we are going to find antivirals I'm optimistic we'll find some form of vaccination is it in six months or a year or two years I can't answer that well what will be the long-term implication of this crisis on Blackrock how many people will come back to work how many people work from home what does it mean for your clients and customers great question we're asking that question all the time right now we are we have some of our Asian cities now we have our employees coming back to work - 50 % we are going to reboot some of our locations in Europe where 50 percent will come to work and we're going to over the course of the summer we'll see how we reboot some of our offices in the United States the key will be though is is public transportation safe in the United States and in the UK where we have our concentration in cities that that rely on public transportation and so that's gonna be the big question and every seal I talked to in London or in San Francisco or New York that is the big question being raised right now but I I actually believe there's some optimism related to Cove it and how we're how we're working many companies including Blackrock have been able to operate with 99 percent of our employees remotely very successfully I don't enjoy it I don't enjoy the the the aspect of working fly a video I enjoy the physicality of being in an office and walking down hallways and talking to people I don't know if we have those inspirational moments but the video I don't know where you have that idea but we're operating quite successfully I do believe when we have a more normalized world in other words some form of vaccination I don't believe any most company's gonna have 100 percent of employees back to the office I believe it's gonna be a blessing of positive that we can be highly productive at home now we could have a component of our population working remotely and working remotely does not mean working remotely living in it went in the same city or the same suburb it may mean working a thousand miles away three weeks a month in one week back in the office work or working you know five straight months and a month and a half remotely I think that's going to turn into a blessing especially when children are back back to school and they're more normalized I think it's going to be fantastic when it comes to sustainability that we're going to have less less congestion in cities and so I actually believe some of this how we are learning to work how are we're learning to operate is going to turn into an incredible blessing and it's going to improve the quality of our lives so so there's going to be some very good things out of coab and despite all the economic terror and uncertainty that it's grating right now so more sustainability I know we just had a conversation Larry Fink about sustainability and whether covered 19 and because the economy is doing so badly will push away some of the goals for sustainability and you don't think it will you think you know companies will push ahead in in providing sustainability and just more ESG friendly Francine I actually think oh by 19 is another example of physical risk it's a health risk it's an economic risk I think sustainability and climate change is another physical risk and they wrote in my letter in January sustainability is an investment risk and we see now health is an investment risk too and so I think all of this is going to accelerate the desire the need to understand these issues so we have not seen any slowdown from our investor interests in addition when you when you intersect sustainability when you intersect the sustainability of else or kovin if you intersect most recent issues around racial inequality it puts more emphasis on every company to be more of a stakeholder organization a company that focusing not just on their shareholders but focusing on their employees it's their safety focusing on their clients more and more and then focusing on every society where they work and I do believe COBIT actually elevates this whole concept of ESG I think Kovan is going to elevate and associated large issues around racial inequality is gonna raise a whole issue of s and so I believe the demands on public companies public boards and CEOs hopefully private companies are going to be all elevated in terms of their role in society and elevating issues around sustainability issues around social and social injustice and so I do believe our responsibilities as companies are going to become more important than ever before so because of the you know pandemic impact on social inequality how will it change the way that you invest in companies well in my 2020 letter we asked companies to record under SAS B and says be part of the reporting and SAS B does has a whole file on how are you what is the distribution of your employment and by race by gender I believe more and more companies since my letter came out are now reporting under says B and T CFD I think this is all going to be other ways of measuring organizations measuring management and leadership in terms of of providing a you know a better long-term outcome a more purposeful organization and I as I said in my in my last three letters a better a more purposeful organization as more sustainable profitability and I believe that more than ever before I think more and more of our clients are choosing the deal with companies who they believe meet their social their environmental ideals and I think this is going to only accelerate and I think it's gonna accelerate as as a young people who are joining the workforce today and they're gonna be joining the workforce unfortunately in a remote way in most big companies they have a totally different experience than what I did and I believe the young people are going to actually become more vigorous in promoting these ideals of stakeholder capitalism you or Blackrock club also plays is playing key role in the feds rescue of the US economy what does that mean for Blackrock or you know too big to fail well I look at those as two very different concepts we have been we have been working with five different governments over the course of the issues around köppen you mentioned the Federal Reserve but for other countries that we've been working with and trying to help them design policies related to boost their economies to me those are that's a division within Blackrock that we've been doing this since 1994 it is a segregated division within our organization it is a component of our organization that I'm very proud of and the reason why we win these assignments we actually do a really good job I'm not here to judge whether we are too big to fail I mean I you know that we have been reviewed and reviewed and review obviously we are a large important asset management company none of the assets are our own assets this is not our balance sheet unlike when people think about banks and insurance companies it is their balance sheet that is people questioning it our clients speak and redeem in their mutual funds in ETS daily our institutional clients generally can redeem in a 30 day period of time and so our fundamental position within society is very different than what a bank an insurance company is our work that we do related to FMA you know we did this openly minded we when we were asked to take on these assignments so you know people what will this mean well you know will it be a society backlash and I said we need to continue to do our job on behalf of the societies we work for and I and we're winning this because of our expertise and the compliments that we have received from our clients have been as strong as ever and so I will continue to try to position ourselves to be the best we can and helping more and more companies more and more individuals governments to have a better financial future and that's what we're trying to do a hundred percent of our business model is a fiduciary culture and that you cannot say that about any bank or insurance come because it isn't that their balance sheet navigation is not it doesn't apply related to that fiduciary positioning we have because it's not our money we have high standards that we have to operate Erin I'm very pleased and how we've been able to navigate this Larry I think I mean 2020 was always going to be a big year because of you know us trying to trade tensions it's a u.s.
election I'd love to do with emerging markets now you have covered 19 what makes you most worried about the markets are we going to see a lot of volatility as the market tries to figure out exactly what's important and what's not like cutting out the noise I think it's going to be very hard to cut out the noise I think we still don't have a fundamental understanding is there going to be a different strain of the virus like we saw in other parts I don't know if we are going to have a severe rising infection rate or a mortality rate I hope that we have antivirals quickly I hope we have a vaccination quickly but until we have those issues until we're over our until we have our are a better understanding of the outcome of the 2020 election here and we know what's going on I think we should expect a lot of volatility for the next year but let's be clear markets have done white bail with all this uncertainty and there's a huge pile of cash sitting in the sidelines and that money needs to be put to work
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