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마이클 버리의 투자 철학과 포트폴리오를 분석한 영상이며, 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음 투자 철학: 버리는 벤 그레이엄식 가치투자자로, 50센트짜리 달러(저평가 자산)를 사서 90센트에 파는 방식을 따름. 촉매 없이도 명백한 저평가면 투자 대상이 됨 리스크 관점: 변동성은 리스크와 같지 않으며, 영구적 자본 손실 방지와 산업 분산이 핵심이라고 설명 밸류에이션: EV/EBITDA로 저평가 종목을 스크리닝하고, 오프밸런스 항목과 실질 잉여현금흐름을 반영해 가치를 산정 공매도: 주요 수익원은 롱 포지션이며 공매도는 기회적으로 활용. 테슬라에 대한 공매도 포지션을 언급 포트폴리오(2022년 1분기 기준): 상위 보유는 Cigna, Discovery, Booking, Ovintiv, Meta, Alphabet 등이며, 애플 풋옵션(공매도 성격) 보유도 언급. 진행자는 버리를 장기보다 단기~중기 투자자로 평가하고 메타·알파벳 포지션은 내년 중반 전에 매도될 가능성을 제시 주의: 영상 자체가 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시
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hey guys welcome back to the channel in this video i'll be showing you the investing strategy of the great michael bury famed investor from the big shore and legendary value investor i'll be going through his old letters and blogs to dissect his investing style and at the end of the video i'll be going through his portfolio to see what he's currently holding if you enjoyed the video please consider hitting that like button as it really helps support the channel so let's get into it dr michael bury first started his professional investing journey in 2000 after switching from medicine where he was awarded his doctorate from vanderbilt university of medicine he still invested back then but only has a hobby when barry started his first hedge fund back in november 2000 it turned out to be wonderful timing as the dot-com bubble was just beginning to burst in the entire market was about to go into freefall as an investor michael burr uses many different investing styles to achieve absolute returns he short sells businesses he believes to be over value he buys compounders durable moats and high returns on capital and then holds them for long periods like buffett but more than any of them he's a true ben graham style value investor in 2001 bury wrote a blog post for msn money where he outlined his entire investing philosophy from start to finish he says his strategy isn't very complex he tries to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like roadkill and sell them when they've been polished up a bit and managing the portfolio is just as important as stock picking so basically he likes to buy 50 cent dollars and then sell them for 90 cents and managing the portfolio is rotating the 90 cent dollars into new 50 cent dollars over and over again this might sound familiar because it's also the strategy nick sleep used early in his career at nomad when searching for 50 cent dollars bury says his weapon of choice as a stock picker is research and that is critical to understand the company's value before laying down a dime he believes investors in the habit of turning over the most stones will find success in choosing investments all of his stock picking is based on the concept of margin of safety as introduced in the book security analysis by graham and don when he looks for 50 cent dollars he also says he doesn't require catalysts which are specific events that push a 50 cent dollar back up to a dollar he says sheer outrageous value is enough barry doesn't care about the general level of the market and he doesn't put restrictions on potential investments quite simply if he can find value it becomes a candidate for the portfolio if you've been around the investing world a little while you've probably heard the saying that the more volatile a company's stock is the riskier it is as an investment or that volatility and risk are the same thing bury says this belief also relies on theories that assume security analysis is a waste of time courtesy of efficient markets and that the correct view on risk is that it's minimized through respectful business evaluation and not minimizing volatility barry's v1 risk is about always putting emphasis on preventing permanent loss of capital or downside protection and he also diversifies his holdings across many industries so if any number of events occur he doesn't lose a significant portion of his client's money valuation is one of the cornerstones of value investing but as a graham style value investor buying 50 cent dollars barry places valuation as the highest priority on his investing checklist he doesn't care if they're good or bad businesses he doesn't care about moats he just cares if they're cheap and offer a big margin of safety one of the techniques he uses to screen for extremely undervalued companies is by using a stock screener and screening for companies using the enterprise value to ebitda ratio ev to ebitda is a simple valuation metric much like the p e ratio except it uses enterprise value instead of the stock price and ebitda instead of eps this is simply a way of filtering out all the fairly priced and overvalued companies so you're left with only cheap businesses once a business passes his loose screen he looks deeper and tries to determine a more specific price and value for the business he does this by taking into account off-balance sheet items and true free cash flow when it comes to buying stocks we need to revisit a point i mentioned before about volatility that's crucial to bury strategy because volatility does not equal risk barry says you can use volatility to your advantage when buying businesses in his 2001 shareholder letter he says he gave a short talk at the bank of america to a room of around 200 wealthy clients and he stated unequivocally that risk is not defined by volatility rather by ill-conceived investment then the gentleman who followed gave a talk about how by minimizing volatility you reduce risk which is the popular opposite of what barry said after the talk barry sat alone while the other bloke was quite popular which tells you everything you need to know about wall street's view on volatility so bury's opinion which is similar to warren buffett and nick's sleep is against the general consensus but it's critical to understand when using bury strategy or any active investing strategy for amara bury says that he strives to discover the proverbial dollar bill selling for 50 cents preferably with enough volatility that he has the opportunity to buy it for 40 cents or less in this way he views volatility as his friend it makes sense because if you know a business is worth a dollar having the opportunity to buy it at 40 cents presents opportunity and not risk and this is a principle shared not just by bury but by nixley charlie munger and warren buffett as well i just want to quickly touch on short selling because it's probably what berry is most known for despite not doing it that frequently in his 2002 shareholder letter barry says he approaches short selling in an opportunistic manner that's in many ways the mirror image of going long stocks but he says he doesn't like the math of shorting as well as the risks because of these factors bury's version of short selling is considered special situation investing and he says the majority of the fund's performance will come from its long positions so that legendary bet against the housing market as depicted in the big shore was just an opportunistic bet from an occasional short seller which makes it even better he's such a smart guy and i should probably hate him because i'm a tesla shareholder and he's had multiple short positions against tesla but it doesn't really bother me and i still like him a lot it was said that you would destroy this and not join them michael berry now that's better in all honesty level the short position doesn't bother me because i feel like barry is a short to medium-term investor i know he considers himself to be a long-term investor and he is compared to most of wall street who only holds stocks for a few months but most of his investments have short holding periods of five years or less compared to someone like charlie munger or nick sleep where the holding period is sometimes decades because of the nature of bury strategy the longer he has to hold 50 cent dollars the worse his performance will be because the longer you hold a business the more the returns are linked with the return the business gets on itself and the reinvestment rate in regards to how this relates to tesla i feel like barry is just betting that tesla is overvalued in the short term and it sure looks that way at first glance if you value tesla in a traditional discounted cash flow with conservative growth rates like a lot of people tesla does look egregiously overvalued but at the end of the day we both have different strategies and different holding periods so it makes sense we come to different conclusions and this is why investing is more art than science if we take a look at bury's current stock portfolio according to stock circle which is previously cheaper than guru all 10 of brewery's positions are new positions and have just been started in the first quarter of 2022.
his top holding right now is cignacorp which is a healthcare and insurance company based in the u.s in second he has discovery inc which is the tv network that owns the discovery channel and animal planet next up we have booking holdings i don't know why it says tobacco manufacturing on the site because a quick google search shows they're the online travel brand next we have avintiv i think i'm saying that right and ovintiv is an oil and natural gas producer in canada the next hauling is a very well known company which has gone through a bit of a rough patch that is of course meta aka facebook after a bad earnings report the company got hammered to under 200 a share and bury obviously feels like meta has dropped far enough that he has a nice margin of safety at the current price he also did the same with alphabet if we look at the chart where it shows his previous buys we can see it's not the first time he's bought alphabet he bought even more shares back in 2019 and quickly sold him again just a few months later and this is kind of what i meant when i say compared to buffet and sleep michael barry is really a short to medium-term investor and if we look at meta as well it's a treadmill of activity you have a buy and a cell then another buy in another cell and just after he sold he bought again i imagine barry knows exactly what he's doing and i'm not criticizing at all but this isn't the behavior of a long-term investor as was the case in the past both his meta and alphabet positions will probably be sold by halfway through next year and if we quickly skim over the rest of the smaller positions in the portfolio we have next star media stellantis global payments and sportsman's warehouse there's one more holding that's pretty easy to miss because you have to click into options to see it that is a put contract against apple a put contract is a financial option that raises in value when the price of the stock falls and it's the opposite of a call option which rises when the stock increases in value so basically berry is shorting apple stock in the short term and based on his buy price and the current price he seems to be doing pretty well with that one so that's michael bury's stock and options portfolio and like i said it'll probably be completely different this time next year based on his investing strategy if you've watched the video all the way today and thank you so much for watching and if you're still bored i'll put another video up in the corner that i think you'll like let me know in the comments below if there's any other investors you want me to do a video on for those that express interest i want to join the community discord server my patreon is now active if you want to check it out if you sign up you get complete access to our community discord server where you can ask questions share ideas and help others in the community become better and wiser investors if you want to check it out there'll be a link in the description box below and as always this video is not financial advice and i'm not a financial advisor so please always do your own research before making any investment decisions so that's it for today thank you so much for watching and i'll see you guys in the next one you
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