저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 인도 주식시장 조정 우려에 대해 조정은 자연스러운 과정이며 장기 복리와 신뢰를 유지해야 한다는 입장. 시장 불안과 조정에 대한 견해: 조정은 매번 있었고 2003~2008년 5,000→20,000 상승 과정에서도 우려가 많았다. 2020년 40% 하락 후에도 같은 우려가 있었고 지금은 100% 상승. 10~20% 조정은 받아들이고 장기 복리(15~70%)를 믿어야 한다. 위험 신호 진단: 글로벌 물류비가 급등해 일부 기업 이익을 잠식하는 중이며 수혜/피해 기업이 갈린다. 전 세계 초완화 통화정책으로 높은 인플레이션에도 자금비용이 낮고 유동성이 무제한에 가까워 평소 보지 못한 변수가 겹쳐 있다. 디지털 기업 평가: 디지털 기업은 성장 capex가 손익계산서에 잡혀 적자로 보이나 실질적으로는 수익성이 있는 경우가 많다고 본다. 인포시스 사례처럼 소수 승자가 시가총액을 크게 키울 것이므로 여러 종목에 2~3%씩 분산 투자하는 방식을 택했다. 조모토(Zomato) IPO에 참여했다. 신규 상장(IPO)에 대한 입장: 높은 밸류에이션과 과잉 자금으로 IPO에서 깊은 가치를 찾기 어렵다고 본다. 다만 상장 기업 중 대안이 없는 독특한 디지털 기업은 개별 검토 대상이다. 자동차/전기차: 자동차 업종은 반도체 공급 문제로 포트폴리오가 부진했다. 저가 전기차의 대중화는 아직 멀었으나 기존 업체도 준비 중이며 Kodak 모멘트는 전부에게 오지 않을 것이라고 본다. 금융: 은행 시장점유율은 공공은행에서 민간은행으로 대규모 이동이 진행 중이며 향후 5~7년간 지속될 것으로 본다. 핀테크는 무담보 소매 대출 중심으로 성장하고 담보 대출은 여전히 물리적 금융이 중요하며, 은행들은 핀테크를 인수하거나 자체 디지털화할 것이다. 유망 분야: IT(IDE 포함)가 최선호 분야이다. 재택근무 확산으로 인도 인력이 미국 기업 업무를 원격 수행하는 흐름이 가속되고 있다. 리스크: 개별 디지털 기업 투자는 일부 실패를 감수해야 하며 2~3% 소액 분산이 전제.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the business today show this is our market special i'm uday mukherjee with me is my co-host abba bakaya and our guest today on the show is a veteran of the market for many many decades from the agarwal of mutilal oswald ram it's good to speak to you again you know every investor that we speak to or we hear these days just seems so anxious why isn't the correction happening the market is ahead of itself the market has gone up so much it will correct and fall almost immediately how do you read this kind of anxiety that you're hearing from most investors today how do you address such questions yeah very nice to talk to you there for a long time and uh you know this question is coming loud and uh everybody is talking about that and nobody knows these corrections they will come and uh it is that so i'm kind of used to it you know these corrections and uh deep connections also i'm quite used to it and that's part and parcel of life i mean any bulldog or markets uh climbing uh from any level to any level like in 2003 2008 when it climbed from 5 000 to 20 000.
you know we had all these concerns uh on the way and uh uh stories uh came out and finally market picked out at 21 000. so i think we are in some kind of uh some kind of a client and how fast it goes how far it goes i mean a lot of things depend but uh these concerns will always remain uh i mean they were there very loud when index had fallen by 40 last year and they were same guys who are asking why should we invest this in the crazy market it is down by 40 and now it is up 100 and still they are the same question so it is very i mean these things keep happening i think one has to have faith in the stock market one has to be ready for that 10 20 correction and uh and then the eventual the power of compounding of 1570 percent and then on top of it if you are a good manager then maybe you can make another so that's the kind of thinking i have i'm reconciled to eventual corrections and power of compounding both but you've seen so many market cycles around you as we sit today do you see any danger signs flashing which tells you that something is happening in the market which one should be very cautious about any exuberance in terms of participation any bubble like valuations in pockets ipo frenzy are there any signs which are telling you that something bad is going to happen a big accident lies ahead are there any red signals flashing or you think it's this normal caution that you hear about people uh or from people because they haven't seen a correction for a long time yeah see there are two three things happening which are very new to this market one we are coming out of the cohort this was a historical this is a historical event i mean on the health care crisis a lot of things are broken down i think one of the things which has broken down is logistics global logistics are completely broken down and the cost of logistics for many companies many stuff global logistic costs have gone higher than the kind of underlying profits or whatever you know if somebody is making 10 profit the logistic cost has gone from 7 to 25 so it has eaten away the entire profit so these are crazy i mean things are breaking down one one after other in many aspects so we don't know uh you know what could could happen to which company and of course when some companies suffer some companies disproportionately benefit us so the companies which are say inbound the companies which are competing with the uh what you call imported material they are much better off today because they don't have that exp the cheap imports coming into the country so like polymorph polymers were being dumped were coming in india very smoothly at certain price now the logistic costs of the problems have like gonna buy fifteen twenty percent so the domestic guys can can increase the prices by that much so you know uh so the profits for these guys they have changed so there's so many things changing i'm quite sure in this quarter result you see some companies suffering big time which are doing very well and some companies will suddenly show huge profits which they were not expected to make profits so a lot of things have gone heavier uh in this period and then on top of it you have extremely loose monetary policy all over the world coordinated so cost of money is very low despite high inflation or whatever is the inflation but the cost of money and the inflation has no correlation right now and the quantum of money is literally unlimited so these are very i mean i have at least not seen so many how do you handle so many variables at one time you know simultaneously working on uh on on the stock prices so i am trying to focus as much as possible on each and every company which i understand which i which i like and and then go build up your portfolio like that rather than taking a big call on what market can do in in very short term fair enough but i was quite intrigued to see zomato in your list of motila loswell top 25 that means you have bought into that ipo and that was interesting for me because i always saw is an old-timer kind of an investment analyst who would buy the maruti's and hero honda's of the world but clearly you have adopted the new age digital kind of technology companies as well how do you go about valuing them ram there i want to hear it from an old timer like you yeah so i had exactly as expected by you i had the struggle and it was difficult for me to i mean i could see the excitement of digital businesses because i read few books and uh and then i said let's uh let's look at it very in a very unemotional way in the sense that first saying that i don't understand and i can't understand let's try to understand because digital businesses have become seriously large in u.s and china particularly these two places and india is the next third place where it is going to be built so i said if we remain in uh what you call denial mode we'll never learn so then with with the help of team uh we started looking at uh in somewhat different manner and uh because the accounting of these digital companies are quite quite funny in the sense that all the growth capacs they are built in the piano not in the balance sheet if you build a cement company your capex is uh coming in the balance sheet not in the pnl whereas when there when tomato or any digital company is building up client base and seriously large client builds that entire expenditure comes in the pnl and hence that looks optically very very loss-making but they're actually not loss-making in the sense that uh if you look at uh what they do and if you kind of forgive some kind of if you can remove the growth capex from the piano i think they are inherently profitable bulk of them are profitable and that's how i try to and then what we do is that okay these businesses can scale up very rapidly to very large level uh and their satellite fundamentally so the value of these companies can be large potentially and we have seen actually when the uh indian i.t happened between 95 2000 when cnbc had just about started it you know at that point of time we made a lot of money uh because uh uh you know that time model was very clear in the sense that it was very profitable and it was coming through the p l but it was the value migration and they started a completely new business and uh the growth was massive and we saw from less than thousand crores uh infosys climbing one lakh crore in four to five years so that was a kind of a learning from where we started and we said that this is the place this is opportunity where large businesses will build which one will be successful how successful we have we don't have that kind of uh you know what i would say uh grip that okay this company will become uh very big but we know out of ten companies two or three of them will become seriously large and i think in next uh say five ten years even ten fifteen percent or twenty percent of the total market cap will come from these companies so uh keeping that in mind i said let's let's start this is simple business of deliveries we understand the economics and let me uh uh let me try to put some money over here thinking that it is going to be a portfolio of companies rather than one company so given that there are plenty of other big listings coming up this year how does a retail investor in the market is flush with them rando you've in fact been uh making mention of the kind of numbers we've been seeing yourself how does a retail investor evaluate the kind of risk associated with getting into certain you know certain names or stocks at very heightened prices for an investor that's very new to the market uh what's the best way of going about trying to really understand the kind of risk associated there mean everybody has to do his work and he has to see his circle of competence and understanding and then put the bet depending on how much he has understood how much he can lose what would be the you know downside uh downside to that and as the valuations become more demanding because the cost of money is low and uh the flow of the money is too much too much money changing the uh these new issues so clearly finding value finding deep value in them is almost out of question okay completely out of question so i am not a big fan of ipo per se i mean it lasts 20 25 years i have never bothered too much about the ipos but now completely new type of companies are coming of which alternatives are not there in the listed space and hence we are looking at some of the digital companies which are unique one of the thing about digital companies that every company is a unique company unlike say in id companies 20 id companies who are more or less same in all i i mean what work or tcs does can be done by infosys can be done by vipro but i don't think the digital companies are like that so i think we have to understand individually each and every opportunity are they local are they global what kind of gross margins they have what kind of uh negative or positive net margin they have and what would that go trajectory how convinced we are so keeping all these things in mind i think uh because if you don't buy early in these these companies i think if they're successful they'll scale up very quickly and then uh it'll be very tough for anybody to intervene into the market and put in the portfolio but at the same time it's a slightly risky game i mean we put two percent three percent and maybe i'll put in 10 12 maybe four five companies and i'm quite sure one or two will disappoint but uh but we have to learn the game as we go along we started this discussion by talking about disruptions uh you outlined many industries where there has been serious disruption one area where you've tracked very closely over the years is autos and there's a big disruption coming there whether it's two wheelers or four-wheelers electric vehicles is going to become a reality much faster than we might have imagined how do you go about investing in autos at a time like this when such a serious disruption lies just ahead yeah so that's a i think to some extent our portfolios are underperformed also because of that in the sense that we were we were holding on to them thinking that this would be one of the best opening trade opening opening of the economy when the economy opens up but what uh what hit was the you know that this semiconductor problem so suddenly you have the demand but we don't know the supply so again you know the trouble has come twice but my sense is that uh affordable evs particularly from indian context whether it is a provider of four wheeler it will it is some time away affordable i am saying yes the entry will happen some startup will happen and uh but i don't think the existing guys incumbents they are sleeping everybody is having in their labs the new models prototypes are there but the affordability in terms of battery charge battery cost and the range in which it comes and the charging stations i think they are all keeping the mass adoption of eb in india some time away but but yes it's one of the biggest disruptions which are now it is no more lab it is a reality so i think uh the incumbents will also participate and most likely there won't be kodak moment for all of them uh and of course one or two new ones will come like teslas of the world but broadly the same guys existing guys they should be able to come out with a good business plan bringing evs in time so that customers get it and what about financials from there i mean that's the other backbone of the market but do you see digital disruption happening in the financial space as well where maybe many of these new apps come up and they take away a lot of the the creamy layer of customers from the banking system do you think we are unable to see today what the digital universe or digital apps can do to the financial system and the banks which have been the darling of investors for so long so then in in case of bank uh there are three things happening one of those what we said but first is that value migration from private public sector to private sector which is very unique to india it is not happening world over so uh in 95 100 was it with public sector banks and now about thirty five percent forty percent in the private sector and still sixty percent is public sector which are not uh uh which which are in no shape to compete in the digital world maybe one sbi but not the entire pack of it so that entire market share is going to come wholesale at very rapid pace to the private sector so that's one deception which is on right now and now it will finish off in next five seven years second is the newer and agile the fintechs are coming in but index typically they are all about data driven unsecured lending you know unsecured and retail lending they are not for you know corporate and wholesale and the politicized lending you know so because with digital it is very tough to do collateral part of it even the housing finance when you want to go through the entire checks and balances of figuring out whether the underlying collateral is good i think it becomes almost impossible to do it digitally again the physical kind of environment works so my sense is the banking will go from a complete physical to physical and then digital so the collateral part will remain in fiji situation and the unsecured part the complete mass lending that will go to digital part and i think a lot of banks either they'll buy the fintechs or they themselves will convert some portion of their own wings into a physical kind of situation so i don't think there is a clear what you call shift of the conventional banking private sector banking agile digital uh banks like icici access and all these guys they are very much on top of their game but the bulk of that uh game is not going to shift to the uh fintechs in uh in in any meaningful way but i think they'll expand the market on the at the bottom of the pyramid and on the unsecured side interesting ramda you've always followed the qglp uh uh principle you've coined it in fact so talking about quality growth going forward in the long term uh share with us where you feel the pockets of opportunity lie in a market like this we've seen some sectors incredibly resilient and of course have have done even better uh poster the pandemic for instance i.t some sectors that have seen a lot of turbulence like auto going forward where do you see the opportunity yeah so my top bet still remains ide i think uh the pandemic has changed a lot of things for writing apart from demand for making their processes digital i think uh work from anywhere that has expanded the supply side opportunity for the companies the sense that uh truly a lot of even u.s corporations are discovering that while people are staying in u.s they are not calling their own employees into the u.s headquarters so clearly if somebody can walk out of la why can't he work for from ludhiana the guys are safe so that realization is of course at corporation level it was there but now i am talking a lot of small businesses four people five people outfits they are shifting their back offices to india hiring two charter accountants three charter accountants uh can you hear me yes yes yes yeah so uh so there is a and right now it is just about the start of the uh post covet uh phenomenon my sense is in three four five years time this will become very big issue in the sense that people who say are competent in india they will get jobs from anywhere and they don't have to move from their homes they have to have a nice uh internet connection and they can be serving their customers or the bosses uh very very uh seamlessly so i think uh the expansion of uh flattening of the world uh was on but now it has accelerated big time for schoolway hey dante always a pleasure to hear you thank you very much for joining in today but it was nice to hear your thoughts after a long time thanks adam nice talking to you thank you sir hi thank you that was our market special and we will be back next monday with another market guru for you but thanks very much for watching from our behind myself goodbye and take care you
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