Ray Dalio says "cash is trash" | Bridgewater Associates new buys in 2022

요약 보기

결론: 인플레이션과 부채 위험을 고려해 현금·채권 비중을 줄이고 인플레이션 헤지 자산과 분산 투자로 포트폴리오를 재구성해야 한다. [영상 개요] 2022년 1분기 Bridgewater의 신규 매수·매도 내역을 소개하고, 달리오의 자산 배분 견해를 함께 다룬다. [Bridgewater 1분기 매수] 뉴몬트(NEM) 54.7만주 신규 매수, 금을 공포·불확실성 시기의 보험 자산으로 봄. [Bridgewater 1분기 매수 계속] 버크셔해서웨이 30.1만주, 에어비앤비 19.8만주, 메드트로닉 188만주, 캐터필러 17.5만주 매수. [Bridgewater 비중 확대] 알리바바 75%, 뱅가드 FTSE 신흥시장 ETF 35%, P&G 31.5%, J&J 40%, 코카콜라 37%, 펩시 36.7% 증가. [Bridgewater 매도] 테슬라, 베리즌, 컬럼비아스포츠웨어, 오토존 투자 청산. [달리오 견해] 현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash). 채권과 부채성 금융자산은 인플레이션 환경에서 실질 수익률이 마이너스가 될 수 있어 회피하거나 헤지 필요. 원자재 사이클에 공감하며 금융자산 대비 실물자산 비율이 과도하면 위험. [포트폴리오 조언] 전형적 포트폴리오는 인플레이션 상승 국면(우상단 사분면)에 취약하므로 이 부분을 늘려 위험을 줄이고, 전술적 배분은 채권이 아닌 분산된 자산으로 한다. [지역·리스크] 사회·정치 갈등과 내부 분열, 재정 악화가 투자 판단의 핵심 기준. 재무제표와 생산성, 국가 내 시민적 안정성, 국제전쟁 위험을 점검. 신흥 아시아·인도 관심, 정부의 자본시장 통제와 외환 통제는 주의 대상. [앞으로 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측] 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 단기 가격 예측 발언은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. raid value says cash is trash and in this video i'll be disclosing the mistakes it's fun took in q1 later in this video you can also see rate value explaining how to diversify your portfolio to face the upcoming challenging times so stay tuned before i move on just make sure to subscribe the channel and hit the notification bell and please smash the like button also for youtube algorithm ray dalio thinks gold is an insurance policy in times of fear uncertainty and doubt and i believe that's why raid values bridgewater associates bulk to 547 000 shares of new mount mining ticker and em during q1 2022 bridgewater associates also bought 301 000 shares of berkshire earth away 198 000 shares of airbnb 1.88 million shares of medtronic and 175 000 shares of caterpillar the firm also increased holdings by 75 on alibaba 35 percent on vanguard ftsc emerging markets etf also increased shares by 31 and a half percent in procter and gamble 40 on johnson and johnson 37 on coca-cola and 36.7 percent on pepsico on the other hand bridgewater exited investments in tesla verizon communications columbia sportswear and autozone now i'll leave you with a short clip where ray value explains how to diversify your portfolio and position yourself for inflation my main things are um first um cash is trash um um and um that there's uh in bonds and and and debt um it's it's not going to be good and the claims of financial assets so either avoid those or position yourselves uh so that when those things operate and and position yourself for inflation um and um so there are um investments lots of investments pertaining to inflation i agree with jeremy's comments about commodities and and the big commodity cycles are reactive there's there's a giant just like the the 40-year bull market in bonds um associates with a commodity cycle where everybody adapts to that companies don't hedge um inventories are drawn down there's less investment in those things that when that switches to that kind of an environment and the big overarching thing is that the amount of financial claims that exist and there's charts in my uh that i repeatedly show when i deal with the uh changing world order what is the amount of financial claims assets relative to real assets and you could see that through history when those financial claims it's like a bank as too many ious on its real money and that thing then you always get into these environments where it's undesirable to own the debt and you have negative real returns and so to position one's portfolio in a tilt that way but of course the way that we do it is to separate alpha and beta right so two parts core uh workers we're all talking tactical how do you create a truly well-balanced um core portfolio and we know that the typical well portfolio is not well balanced with its greatest vulnerability being in that upper right quadrant in our box which is the inflation box and we know that we're in that environment so from a starting point of view i would encourage all investors to look at that those four quadrant bots that box that we have rising inflation falling inflation rising um real growth relative to discounted falling real growth relative to discounted and see what the biases are in those portfolios i believe that now you can simultaneously reduce risk and raise returns reduce risk of that portfolio by having more in that upper right quadrant rising inflation and you will reduce your risk because if you look at your portfolio typical investor's portfolio that is the environment that is missing so you start with that how do you get more neutral how do you get back better balanced and you cover yourself from that exposure and then you make your tactical moves around it and the tactical moves again should not be in those debts it should be very well diversified i think that the social and political conflicts are going to be a big investment thing coming forward and so that'll mean and the way i look at it is i want to look at places that have good income statements and balances so i say places i mean countries as well as individual that make up those countries the individual people and the individual companies so do they have a good income statement financial stability they have a good balance sheet so that they can weather those things and also it's a sign of their productivity are they productive and then number two are they civil with each other i really do believe that internal conflict and bad finances are going to be defining characteristics of where to invest or even where to be and then if i carry that forward to the third do am i going to have in the risk of being in a in a international war an important international war because that international war will um raise uh lots of threats so i want uh when i'm picking those locations i i want to be out of the finance of those those that instruments largely minimized on the on the financials the inflation hedge assets well diversified look to parts of the world that are not as plagued with us um so emerging asia is very interesting india is interesting so diversify look at neutral countries during that period of time watch out for um government controls on capital markets because that's the logical next step history has shown that watch out for foreign exchange controls could be watch out for those things so those are the themes that i think are most important and will be most important in investing you