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Stock Market Fear Indicator: Jim Cramer's Insight

Stockology Insider · 2024-08-05 · 유튜브 시청 55 · 게시판 조회 7 · 외국인

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in this segment of Mad Money Jim ker discusses the economic weakness and the fear in the markets as indicated by the significant decline this past week he criticized the federal not cutting interest rates sooner Kramer also mentions various signs of economic weakness such as intels poorly missed quarter widespread pain in the retail sector and weakness in the Chinese market he notes that certain stocks like Proctor and Gamble and kimil Clark have seen significant increases despite reporting bad quarters indicating fear in the market in the stock market at pivotal times today was one of those pivotal times because the tenure treasury it's a very visible piece of pre of of paper to a lot of the big investors in the world and it Plum plummeted in yield crashing through the 4% level to 3.98% that's the low has been since February I know it doesn't sound like much but it triggers a lot of other things why does it matter because the 10 years is the sum of all of our fears about the economy when the economy is too hot when inflation's roaring the tenure tells the tale and plummets in price sending yields soaring that's usually sign the Federal Reserve needs to reain in inflation by raising interest rates but you know what it can be bad too when rates fall when the tenure yield crumbles when it goes down very hard very fast that tells us the FED better get started cutting the darn rates in fact it makes them look ill advised for not cutting it yesterday's meeting and that's what caused this decline to me today's terrible action stocks was a function of the FED not cutting rates yesterday at that Federal Market committee meeting the slow down the economy the brown shoes as I call them it's gotten much more palpable they've turned into Brown Fields with whole sector starting to lie fow yes both the 10year treasury and the echoing stock market are saying the same thing j pal you got this one wrong you should have moved yesterday September's too late the evidence is too Stark how did you miss it what were you listening to didn't they see the 10year treasury signal economic danger all right take a step back the fed's always fair game for criticism but I feel they never get enough credit for doing anything right I mean the second guessers will be shamed if we get a strong Employment Number tomorrow morning wasn't enough that jel said look they'll cut rates in September if the economy weakens Ching this fed feels like a mistake inflation seems so intractable for so long and now they've got it on the ropes plus the soft economy is brand new For Heaven's Sake last year at this time there was almost Universal criticism that the Fed was powerless to tame inflation was too embedded so I have better things to do with my time than landbased a Fed chief for considerably letting the economy wither for a couple for seven more weeks of course pal wants to give it more time he lived through the 70s so did I when the FED would cut rates every time the economy started slowing then inflation would Roar back again he's a thoughtful considered man in a world of thoughtless traders who would do not get the consequences of moving too fast to bring rates down while inflation is still kind of hanging around plus it's more than a little foggy out there the Slowdown isn't all that visible hey last night meta platforms reported an extraordinary quarter large part because it's been able to uh to make its targeted advertising more efficient than ever advertising aimed at 3.27 billion daily average users holy cow active users I should say which is an up an astounding 7% year-over a year met is spending a huge amount to have enough computing power and CEO Mark zberg says he'll shell out maybe 10 times that for the next generation of its large language model infrastructure because the opportunity is so enormous more on that later if the close today though we got the other side two other mag s players that didn't deliver Amazon uh well say the results were imperfect sales came in light despite real strength at Amazon web services earnings were better than expected so the revenue guidance was weak although they tend to always do the guiding very conservatively Amazon's got to keep spending on Compu if only to keep up with alphabet and more important meta and Microsoft Apple though put a clean top and bottom line Beat despite severe weakness in China Market's so negative on Tech they're not going to give Apple the benefit of the doubt they never do of course we got another story from other tech companies I interviewed Rene hos CEO of arm holders the gigantic 7 conductor design company I did it this morning and he talked about there was weakness in the internet of things huh that's industrial Tech news reverberated throughout lots of tech including Micron down 7 half% Texas Instruments down 5% semu Capital Equipment giant lamb they put a good quarter left people feeling a little bit queasy though and you know what after an historic run from 574 last October to 1,133 weeks ago well that that's how you get a 10% haircut then after to close Intel a company I've warned you again and again and again about in including yesterday well they missed their quarter on all fronts and they suspended their dividend it is not safe Tech's been a Bastion of strength for so long but now that Bastion seems to be on the ropes too last night I talked about how there's been a downt turning discretionary spending this morning Wayfair Furniture reported a week the expected quarter and more important they said that this environment is like the Great Recession we've heard from the that refrain from RH is Gary Freeman his stuff's pretty expensive I mean Wayfair is every man PayPal doesn't care if RH hurts customers you can't afford it can't afford the customers but Wayfair there much more bargain oriented and that means why spread pain the House of Pain travel's been one of the true bright spots of the economy but yesterday marot says it's seeing weakness in America I wouldn't normally worry but today MGM Resort said it was concerned about flagging Advanced sales for its Formula 1 rat remember that that was such a huge hit the rooms went for well it went to out absurd levels and maybe that's what's happened that's why the stock's down 133% today you have to wonder if it's big deal I don't know I call it disconcerting of course there are other signs of weakness that we OB obvious China I mean one more horrendous state for anybody connected with China I measure the health of the Chinese economy by looking at the Baltic Freight index which gives you shipping rates and they've now been down for 10 straight days you think China couldn't possibly be still so important important for Apple though and the Chinese economy let's let's say I don't know how it can get back on track I don't see it I'm sick and tired of hearing there might be stimulus I've given up on that in large property because the Chinese Communist Party doesn't seem to believe in the stimul either sometimes I don't want to overthink this you can tell how much fear there is by looking at what's going higher both Proctor and Gamble and Kimberly Clark reported really bad quarters and their stocks were acting as if both reported blowouts Abbot Labs lost a court suit last Friday where jury awarded the plane of $495 million as recompense for what the plan of claim was defective baby formula that caused a terrible infant illness that stocks up huge since then including about a 4% increase today you don't get that kind of action when the econom is humming these are all classic slowdown stocks bottom line here this is a suddenly a market that's given to Violent extremes it keeps turning on different segments with the Vengeance while rewarding just a handful of others today was Tech turn to get molded by the Bears and with Amazon's revenue Miss after the close the Beatdown could continue tomorrow although once again I think it's selling Apple down huge like it is tonight would be suboptimal decision making I need to go to Troy and Florida Troy hey Jim Kramer big fan I don't always agree with you but big fan I wanted to see I'm glad you're a fan of the show well how can I help I wanted to see what are your thoughts for the next 12 months for Ford Motor Company well I've got um my own reservations about Ford I've decided to sell it for my travel trust uh they have failed to deliver what I expected them to do let's go to uh Abraham Abraham in Georgia Abraham Abraham hey hey J how are you oh great sorry if I mispronounced your name that's my bad but how can I help you said it right you said it right it's okay I've been using I've been getting information from your uh show and it's very helpful I'm really appreciate it I just need to know about this CRM sure and I really app I really appreciate those words today's a hard day because both apple and Amazon report I really want to try to do a good job for you and all our viewers it's just very very difficult I would I would say that U sales force we trim back a little bit because I don't like Enterprise uh that's Enterprise software but you know what it it too 40 is where I would probably say it's okay again to buy can I go to Marcus in Oregon please Marcus hey Jim thanks so much love you walk in the morning thank I'm looking for a shopping list the week after next is car week in montere which is like the biggest most expensive car show in the world okay think thinking about cars God I'd love to buy four because it's looks pretty cheap but my favorites are still Ferrari and Tesla what do you think okay I I like fry very much I think Tesla's much more now he's trying to feature Elon mus is trying to portray it frankly as a tech company if it's a tech company then I think you can buy it right here and not worry about montere but I thank you for that information I didn't even know that myself let's go to Adam and Georgia please Adam Mr Jim what's going on dude I don't know tough night you trying to understand Apple trying to understand Amazon trying to do a good job for you sometimes I don't feel I deliver and I apologize but I'm doing my best what's going on the man no I'm not the man today I'm not the man this is four times a year we have these this one day and I cannot deliver what I'd like to do I cannot deliver the quality product i' like to I'm sure I try I always try but it's very tough how can I help well we appreciate it all right check it out I've held Home Depot for 20 years rolling over my dividends the whole time and I was wondering is there anything I can do with that I think you just keep doing look got 2.5% yield it's got a great balance sheet when the FED starts cutting rates people will start doing more transactions homes this stock trades on transactions of homes when rates go lower you get more transactions and that's why it's why a good stock to hold and Below 350 I would buy the stock look this Market has all of a sudden given us violent extremes today's Tech turned to feel the bang and given Amazon's revenue Miss at the bell and how no one really is going to care about whether Apple says things are fine could have some more pain tomorrow

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