저자: Emile · 외국인
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결론: 아크 인베스트(캐시 우드)는 파괴적 혁신 테마에 투자하는 액티브 ETF로, 장기적으로 S&P500을 상회할 가능성이 있다는 긍정적 평가이나 변동성이 크고 불확실한 시기에는 부진할 수 있다. [아크 인베스트 철학·전망] 캐시 우드는 워런 버핏과 달리 가치주 대신 파괴적 혁신에 집중하며, 로보틱스/자동화, 에너지 저장, 유전체 시퀀싱, AI, 블록체인 5개 분야를 핵심으로 본다. 아크는 이 5개 분야가 향후 10~15년간 약 50조 달러의 사업가치를 창출하고 현재 약 6조 달러 수준이라고 추정한다(전체 미국 주식시장 약 72조 달러와 비교). [종목·가격 전망] 테슬라: 아크가 1년 전 5~10년 내 5,000~10,000달러 목표를 제시했으나 당시 200~300달러였고 현재 약 1,000달러로, 발표자는 이 목표가 비현실적으로 보이지만 당시보다는 현실적이라고 평가. [ETF 구조·운용] 아크는 ARKK, ARKQ(자율주행·로보틱스), ARKW(차세대 인터넷), ARKG(유전체), ARKF(핀테크) 등 액티브 ETF 5종을 운용하며, 종목과 비중을 지속적으로 조정한다. 현재 ARKK 비중 약 30%는 헬스케어(유전체 관련)이며, 크리스퍼 등 유전체 기업을 저평가로 보고 비중을 확대 중이다. [밸류에이션·수익률] 가중 평균 P/S 5.27, P/CF 30으로 높은 편이나 미래 성장산업 특성상 설명 가능하다고 본다. 과거 수익률: 설립 후 5년 연 25%, 최근 3년 연 32%, 최근 1년 55%로 최근 성과가 매우 좋다. [리스크·조건] 변동성이 크고, 안전자산 선호가 강해지는 불확실한 시기에는 위험자산 매도로 부진할 수 있다. 보수(expense ratio) 0.75%, 아크 편입 상위 종목(테슬라, 스퀘어 등)을 직접 보유하면 중복 비용이 발생한다. [출연자 전망·결론] 발표자는 장기 투자자에게 좋은 투자처가 될 수 있다고 보며, 특히 가치투자자나 산업 노출을 원하지만 개별 기업 분석이 어려운 투자자에게 적합하다고 본다. 발표자 본인은 테슬라·스퀘어를 대량 보유 중이라 ARK ETF 직접 투자 매력은 낮다고 밝힘. 아크 웹사이트 리서치 자료를 활용해 종목 아이디어를 얻으라고 권함.
다듬은 글
all right what's up everyone welcome back to compound interesting this is a meal and in today's video where I'm gonna look at arc invest which is led by Cathy wood and we're having a look if Cathy wood could potentially be the next Warren Buffett and their investment formed arc invest to potentially be the next Berkshire Hathaway with those ridiculous returns over the long term so arc invest is quite dissimilar to Berkshire Berkshire Hathaway in the fact that they believe in disruptive innovation rather than value stocks or great companies great long lasting companies are confessed are very much focused on disruptive and innovation so any sort of company that is set to change the way the world works and it's about to completely Oprah's legacy businesses so there's five main disruptive innovative innovation sectors that are confessed believe will completely change the world and they are robotic robotics slash automation energy storage genomic sequencing AI and blockchain arc invest have some crazy crazy estimation estimations for the future so this is one of their estimations that those five sectors combined will result in fifty trillion dollars of business value and wealth creation over the next 10 to 15 years and they're currently worth six trillion now so that's kind of absolutely that's a huge prediction considering that the entire stock market right now is valued at about the entire American stock market is like 72 trillion dollars they estimate those five sectors to make up 50 trillion dollars in the next 10 to 15 years now we remember the whole stock market will be worth a lot more than 70 trillion dollars in the next 10 to 15 years we all hope so anyway but still 50 trillion is a huge prediction but this is one of the reasons that I confessed have to but they're quite popular and famous they kind of have these enormous price predictions and some of them are already playing out for example based look on $5,000 5 to $10,000 price prediction for Tesla stock next five years which I think it seems quite unrealistic to me but they put that price target as like a year ago like one Tesla was still two to three hundred and now Tesla's a thousand and that seems much more realistic even though it's still quite high so what is Cathy wood and arc invest believe in disruptive innovation so much they believe disruptive innovation causes massive price declines in whatever sector so for example electric cars eventually will cause massive price declines in cars and fuel and eventually that will lead to enormous growth in that industry as well as lead to further innovation in the industry leading some more value in the future so arc offer five different actively managed ETFs so they're UGS where arc pick and choose different stocks and are buying and selling and constantly managing the ratios on what they believe will do the best in the future so those five ETFs are there are K so a or k k which is the amalgamation of all the other four so the other four are autonomous tech in robotics that's our cue arc w next-gen internet arc G next-gen or sorry genomics so genes and then finally arc F FinTech innovation so we're most gonna look at R K which is kind of their best picks out of the other four all into one so over the last 20 or so years an enormous amount of money has moved out of hedge funds so actively managed funds moves out of that and into passively managed funds as in index funds so basically headphones people who are picking and choosing stocks for their clients historically they've actually only performed indexes and people are finally starting to wake up to this and moving over it's just investing in the entire market eg the S&P 500 however now Kathy thinks that there is a shortage in hedge funds acting manager phones and because everyone is passive investing there is an opportunity for massive growth and for picking and choosing the right investments because she's investing in disruptive innovation she believes she can avoid the companies that are going to be completely disrupted and displaced by the innovation such as Ford or Chevron or any of those oil or ice vehicle car companies that are gonna go under potentially Kathy and every one of us are confessed think disruption is really under priced at the moment and they believe that the coaming revolutions and all these different sectors is going to be bigger than the impact of the Internet of electricity in the past but the next these five different industries are going to completely transform the way the world works and have an enormous effect and in turn create an enormous value for shareholders in these companies arc believe that they're investing in the companies with the highest risk to reward potentials in the entire stock market so they believe the potential reward is high and potentially the risk could be high as well however because you're spreading your bets across a large array of different assets or securities the risk is therefore reduced because it's diversified across a lot of companies so if one company goes there's you're not completely screwed so it kind of takes the fear out of a lot of investors when investing in these cards types of companies that have huge reward potentials but maybe don't have the current revenue to be backing up such high price multiples all right go through some more reasons you might consider investing in our X ETF and then we'll look at its previous performance and then finally I'll give you my opinion on whether I would invest or I am invested or going to invest in our so one of the reasons you might want to invest in arc is if you are mainly a value investor and you have a lot of exposure to legacy companies that are mega high mega cap companies well over 100 billion dollars because that only makes up sirup mega cap companies over a hundred billion dollars only make up less than 1% of Arc's etf so the majority of them are so one hundred billion or sub ten billion dollars because arc is actively man they can continually rotate sectors or stocks that they believe is going to perform better over the time and sell stocks that they believe I've run up to much and are now overpriced so whenever you're looking at Ark invest the sector weighting will always changed as to whichever whichever sector they think is going to perform the best so at the moment 30% of our canvassed the main RK in the Asia the main RK Innovation Fund is made up of healthcare stocks so all a bit like genomic sequencing and the likes of a loom and a crisper what was the other one in VTA they're they're making up the largest proportion of the stock portfolio at the moment because they believe the genomic revelation revolution is coming very very soon and these stocks are very under priced so they've bought more and more and more of those stocks and let the other ones that have kind of inflated a bit let let the buying on them cool down a bit when you're investing in arc as well you need to be aware that our kids aren't being more volatile but hope more volatile in an index fund like the S&P for 500 because of the types of stocks that they invest in however at the same time we would hope that over the long term our confess will outperform the S&P 500 just like but Berkshire Hathaway did or in a very long time period whereas Berkshire Hathaway got a 20% return average over 40 or so years Cathy wood has managed since inception in five years ago they got 25 percent each year over the last five years thirty two percent over the last last three years and 55 percent over the last year so their phones performance have done really really well since last year and I wasn't really doing that amazing up until then up until then I was only like 17% per year but just because of this year's performance because such a volatile index fund in comparison to other phones it's done very very well this year and husband the S&P four I wonder quite easily so berkshire hathaway actually is quite a as a medium to large position in my portfolio and I hold Berkshire Hathaway to act as diversification because all my stocks are kind of tech high growth stocks kind of like the stocks that are in this one's quite similar so that's why I'm interested in this bond however I hold a lot of Berkshire as a hedge to all my investments however if you're kind of the kind of person who has a lot of Berkshire Hathaway style stocks that are kind of you know value long-established companies that are not crazy high price multiples and they're very safe aren't gonna go out of business any time soon you might look at arc invest as a good hedge to your investments but let's have a look at arc invest top ten holdings so as you can see Tesla is the number one position in arc invest portfolio and in three of their in excellence it's also the biggest position as a also can't as autonomous and also cancer in the robotic space at the same time Tesla's also more I pick its position however makes up more than ten percent of my portfolio it's like thirty to forty percent and on top of that I also hold quite square is also one of my biggest positions so I think it's about number four it's much more fourth biggest position so for those reasons I not so interested in RK personally because two of those what I've been investing in is Tesla on square like quite a lot of it would be just investing in them except I'm paying 0.75% management fee to arc to invest money that I would have invested anyway just to be invested in the other stocks apart from Tesla and square so the expense ratio for arc is zero point seven five percent however for me personally are being interested in investing only other ETFs like the genomic once where I'm not so confident in the individual companies I'd already know them well enough however that I'm interested in the industry and think it's don't do really well and I'll just allow arc to pick the best companies for me because they're all geniuses who work there and much smarter than me in area so I'll trust them to make the better investments when I could in that particular area however appeared their type of person he doesn't love researching companies every single day and will prefer someone just do it for you this could be a very good option that has a good potential to beat the sp500 in my opinion so our can best have a price to sales ratio their net asset value so the price to sales ratio of all they're weighted Holdings combined is five point two seven so that's pretty high price to sales ratio for a normal company and quite a lot for an in excellent so kind of a fair value in price to sales multiple usually it's under five for a growth company and one or two for a normal company so five point two seven quite a high price to sales my ratio and the price the cash flow ratio is thirty so also quite high but obviously with the kind of companies they're investing some of them don't even have very much revenue or earnings whatsoever both their future enormous growth industries so for those reasons maybe it's not so richly priced do I think it's a good investment right at this very very minute now it's currently an all-time high thanks to the light of Tesla which is just gone extremely extremely well that was their big bullish thesis playing out over the last number of years that was the big best and it's paid off and also because of their healthcare stocks that they have like the genomic sequencing everyone kind of looks at covert and then sees oh there's massive potential growth here in the healthcare industry the healthcare industry did quite well after at over nineteen so that's why it sound all-time-high much bigger than it was before cover nineteen do I think arc invest would be a good investment yes from the companies that I know that they've invested in I absolutely love the ones that they out there and also when you're going onto the website looking into their investment research there's so much free material that you can consume and get stock ideas for yourself so I'm seeing CRISPR in their in their phones and that's making me very interested and that's going to be in the next stock I research and I'm gonna use their research material so the perfect place to find potential enormous growth stocks for yourself if you're more of a active investor like myself if you're not so into it and then someone else manage your money so I think Ark would be a very good investment for someone investing for the very long term however it's going to be a bit of a it's going to be a very very volatile stock and will they believe will underperform in times of uncertainty so for example when people want to get into more safer stocks they'd sell their more risky stocks which is what Ark invest are made up of so they sell all the stocks in in an archivist fund and flock to safety so it might not perform in kind of riskier times but over the long term I think there's a good chance I could well I perform the S&P 500 so as I mentioned crisper and I'm going to be the next talk that I'm researching and that's essentially editing someone's genes obey these genes so they won't have certain diseases and in the far far future editing someone's genes so there'll be they'll be tall that they'll have blue eyes which obviously could generate trillions of dollars if not hundreds and billions but yeah that's only a less than 10 billion dollar company so it looks really really enticing to me even though they are not very very much revenue at all so that's the company I'm gonna be researching next so there'd be a video on that in the coming days so if you're not subscribed click subscribe so you catch that video I'm gonna get go really really deep on that one because that kind of fascinates me if you like the video please drop a thumbs up would mean the world to me I really really hope you enjoyed something I hope I opened your mind up to our canvas as a potential investment not financial advice or whatever blah blah but yeah I think it's a really good investment potentially for value investors or people who want exposure to this industry but don't really understand it and the different segments that they have a provides a lot of potential diversification for a more seasoned to investor and there's also those there's another couple index ones in there that I didn't get to mention but absolutely have a look at their website because some fascinating research on there some really cool interesting stuff if you're at all interested Tech or anything about the future low the research there and loads of stock ideas so basically just steal all their information steal their investment ideas and invest for yourself invest in the companies that they're investing pick the best ones that you think will do the best or if you're not doing what they're doing not going to buy one of the Ark invest ETS or indexes so thank you so much for watching I really really hope you enjoyed on accounting to see in the next video Cheers
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