Dan Ives: Nvidia put up a masterpiece quarter and threw AI 'bubble' out the window

요약 보기

엔비디아 실적은 'AI 버블' 우려를 불식시킨 걸작 분기이며 AI 인프라 투자는 아직 초기(3회 중 3회 초). 수요 대비 공급 12:1, 향후 2~3년간 지출이 과거 8~10년 합계보다 많을 것으로 전망. 기술 강세장은 2년 더 지속된다고 봄. 알파벳은 Gemini 성과로 재평가 중이며 목표가 $400 제시. 애플은 Gemini 제휴 기대로 $75~100 상승 여력 제시.

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01. Joining me now to discuss is Wedbush's Dan IV. So Dan, you know, Nvidia's numbers really cap an earnings season where these companies pretty much did everything they were expected to do and more. Um, you know, recommitting to the AI trade, essentially saying that they're still enthusiastic about it.

02. Why is the market in general not really giving them credit for it? Look, first off, I think that was a masterpiece quarter, right? And I think any worries about the AI bubble thrown out the window in terms of fundamentally when you heard from godfather of AI chvidia look I think it speaks and you've talked about a lot on the show like worries about circular financing like where this is going to go can the data center going to bu get built is there capacity issues look I just continue view when you put the pieces together of the puzzle as well as you know our you know three weeks in Asia this is third inning top of the third one out of this AI game and that's why I just think name like names like Nvidia days like today you buy names like Oracle, Microsoft, Nvidia because I believe this tech bull market has another two years left.

03. I mean as a baseball numbers guy you know they we now know sometimes the third inning is your high leverage inning where you got to kind of bring in the the best arms and try to put down a threat. Uh, and I'm wondering right now if if Nvidia's numbers, and I've been kind of puzzling over this all day, as great as they are, and as much confidence as Jensen has about the next four or five quarters, you wonder if everybody can have equal confidence in the customers that are giving him all that money and allowing him to earn those margins on on their spend and when they're going to sort of uh get clarity about the payback.

04. Look, it's a great point, but I would just say look in the US 3% of companies have gone down the AI path. Europe zero. You look at, you know, in Asia exchina minimal less than 1%. Sovereigns, Middle East just starting. I mean, my whole point is that, you know, right now demand of supply is 12 to1 for Nvidia chips and of course AMD and others are going to play.

05. But the reality is that we are still early. I mean, you're talking more money is going to be spent in the next two to three years in the last 8 10 years combined. So, I get some of the worries, but I believe the Bears will continue to watch this AI party from the outside looking in as they continue to prove it out.

06. I think streets underestimated numbers anywhere from 15 to 20% right next to But is that not the bull case for Nvidia and the whole food chain for the infrastructure buildout? Can it not also be the bare case for the metas of the world and the Microsofts that feel like they're on this unending treadmill of having to spend hoping that they get the return.

07. Yeah. And I think but I I do think it's a little more than hope because the reality is that the use cases if you almost put the piece together look at Palunteer, look at MongoDB, look at Snowflake. So you see the use cases are exploding. Look and it's an arms race that they have to continue to spend on and you're going to see the same with the Oracle.

08. But I think meta we look out 12 to 18 months. This was a table pounder moment just like we saw with Alphabet as a table pounder. Well, I was going to get to Alphabet because that's a really fascinating situation how it's gotten revalued higher. Tremendous amount of sponsorship all of a sudden of this name that people really had a lot of skepticism about not that long ago.

09. Now their new model is getting raves I guess in terms of its performance, the new Gemini. uh and also they did it you know kind of with their own processor. So how does that play into the whole you know Nvidia at the center of this question? Look, Nvidia obviously fueling it centered in terms of one chip in the world, but the reality is Alphabet, you go back six, eight months ago, New York City cab drivers bearish on it, right?

10. So, it's one AI that is ultimately destructive. The opposites happen. I mean, I think now you see Sundar and what's happened with Google. They're on the offensive. I mean, you look at what they've done with Gemini. This is just the start because the reality is in Certino for Apple, who they go in for AI.

11. It's just a matter of time until they do the Google Gemini deal as well. So that's why you see that stock at continue rerating bullcase $400. You know, my my colleague Scott Dev and I, we've done a lot of work. Look, I believe this is one. This is a name you continue to own just still early days. And then when it comes to Apple, because you mentioned it's an arms race.

12. Well, they're not really participating at least in terms of the gross dollars being funneled in that direction. Yeah, I think yet I think now it comes down to like obviously iPhone 17's been almost a sleeper upgrade cycle, but you have the biggest install base in the world. Monetization is right now on the verge.

13. 2.4 billion iOS devices, 1.5 billion iPhones. The consumer AI revolution will go through Apple and Cook. But it all comes down to Gemini. And now that DOJ that that has cleared that gives them the opportunity to walk down the aisle and ultimately ink that partnership. We said that's worth $75 to $100 for Apple stock.