저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
2025년 기술주 강세 지속, AI 인프라 슈퍼사이클 진행 중이며 2차·3차 파생 수혜주로 상승 확산 전망. 버블 우려는 있으나 과거 사례(딥시크, 해방의날 매도)처럼 일시적 긴장일 뿐이라는 입장. AMD·팔란티어·브로드컴을 핵심 AI 수혜주로 꼽고, 에너지·바이오·사이버보안 분야 확대를 언급. 관세는 저~중간 10%대 중반으로 수렴할 것으로 봄. 오픈AI는 내년 후반~후년 초, 앤트로픽은 더 빨리 상장 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Big Business this week. I'm JD Durkin here on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange tracking as always the biggest story shaping markets, money, and the ever evolving world of tech. Between earnings, the race for AI dominance. This has been another defining year for the tech space as the sector remains the strongest performing in the S&P 500 this year.
This is a man who in our world needs no introduction, the great Dan Ives of Wed Bush Securities. Dan, thanks a lot for joining us. It's a real treat to have you here this week. Oh, always great to be with you, JD. I'm wondering how you would characterize the current tech market landscape. And with a couple weeks left in the year, Dan, how well have your predictions for 2025 held up?
Look, I'd say it's been a robust year, you know, relative to, I think, the view of tech and what we've seen in terms of tech stocks and I think the AI revolution, right? in terms of the monetization ultimately the buildout and the capbacks and what I view as almost a capback super cycle. I think if I had to characterize like sentiment, look, obviously it's like there's there's nervousness out there, right?
Like is it a too big to fail moment? Is it an AI bubble? So, every time something happens, there's definitely some nervousness, but look, and I mean, and I think you could see with my ETF, you know, in terms of the performance, look, obviously, it's been a great year, but I don't view it as kind of like in the past.
My my focus continues to be like identifying the AI winners, understand tech, just staying one step ahead. Tech bull market, two more years left. When we look at the names we affectionately refer to as the Mag 7 or the Magnificent 7, Dan Ives, don't look now. Only two of them are outperforming the S&P 500.
Google up 65%, Nvidia up 34. Our mutual pal Jay Woods wondered to me earlier this week, is the mag seven now a bit of the lag seven? Are you surprised at the underperformance from most of those names? Yeah, look, I view it a little differently because I view it as like look, the AI revolution is being led by Max 7.
I mean, capbacks, you're going to have what, 600 billion of capbacks next year, you know, in terms of, you know, ultimately as that plays out. I think the story is even though those names significantly outperformed over the last few years, it's the second, third, fourth derivatives that are really outperforming in tech this year.
But I don't see that as a bad thing. Like I think next year you could see maybe Mag 7 outperform, you know, in terms of some of those names. But it speaks to my view. This bull market is going to spread across small midcaps and outside just traditional big tech. Dan, I remember asking you, it's got to be at least two years ago.
It's a while ago. If you had to add one name to the Mag 7 to make it the Elite 8 at the time, you told me AMD. You were pretty bullish on what Lisa Sue was doing with regards to leadership of AMD. Would that still be your thesis? And I wonder, do you kind of view the trunch of companies a little bit differently with some you would remove and maybe some new ones you might consider adding?
No, I'd say look AMD, Palunteer, right? And maybe Broadcom. I mean, those are kind of the names that you'd like not just in terms of like what players they are, but just how important they are to to the AI trade. But I think when you start to think about like let's say in software MongoDB snowflake you look in cyber security crowd strike powto I mean that's like my whole Ives AI30 right like it's all about it's not just about seven names trying to identify the second third fourth derivatives across tech because as me and you've talked over the years like this is a true fourth industrial revolution that's really playing Uh, I wonder any companies you think we should be talking a little bit more of.
You just name checked Palunteer, Broadcom, handful of others. Is there anyone kind of under the radar you think we should be paying a little bit more attention to? I mean, look, uh, you know, I think when it comes to I mean, just tickers that I'm super interested in in terms of I would say off the radar, but just names I think really, really important like, you know, Nemesis, NBIS, I think super important.
I think you know iron I think really important relative to energy and because I I continue view like the biggest constraint in the AI revolutions energy which is why octa is on there as well. I think cyber security doesn't get talked as much when you look at names like Crowd Strike, Paulo, Zcaler. Look, I think that that's really going to be the theme going into this next year.
It's the second, third, fourth derivatives playing out across T. But I've said it's only 10:30 p.m. in the AI party, start at 900 p.m. That party goes to 4:00 a.m. And look in that, there could be glass in the dance floor. DJ stops playing music. Cops maybe come to the party to try to break it up. But I'd rather be at that party rather than a bear looking through the window saying the party doesn't look that fun.
When the bulls and bears meet up 6:00 a.m. Bulls have a hot bear night in the bears. Uh, as long as I'm not the one who spilled glass on the dance floor. No party fouls here, though I have been that guy from time to time. So, so you mentioned some of the energy components about this and there's a really interesting kind of secondary play for a lot of firms.
Blue Owl Capital comes to mind. These these firms that are trying to it's not even really the picks and shovels of the conversation, but it's more of the uh infrastructure energy, the real estate plays surrounding the AI trade. where do you fall and and how are you thinking about the kind of circular financing phenomenon that a lot of Wall Street's talking a lot more about the last three to four weeks or so that involves some companies like Blue Owl.
Yeah, I'm not as concerned with the circuit of financing just cuz as a tech analyst going back to late 90s like vendor financing and some of the parallels there. I I disagree just cuz you have 3 to four trillion that's going to be spent next few years. I believe it's really more collaborative planning flags that they need to do.
I don't view it as some sort of red flag moment. Now, I do think look, but also it speaks to like you're you're essentially building out a new economy for consumers and enterprises. That doesn't happen overnight and there's going to be debt taken on the balance sheet for some of these companies as well.
But I don't view that as a bad thing relative to as a percent what that is relative to their earnings power. Dan, I've seen some analysts as of late, they're they're trying to make the non-intuitive AI argument. They point to sectors like healthcare. They point to companies like Walmart that might be not immediately what you think of as AI plays, but more and more need to adopt AI at a at a massive enterprise scale.
And we're seeing that with a name like Walmart, which is that's arguably part of the the reason the Walmart is leaving the New York Stock Exchange and heading off to the NASDAQ, considering itself a bit more of a tech play than maybe just a pure play brickandmortar retail spot or an e-commerce giant.
Um, are there other sectors or other things also on your radar you think we should pay attention to that are going to be bigger and bigger forces in AI? Look, energy, biotech, and I think those are going to be two key areas, you know, when it comes to, you know, when it comes to what we see relative to AI.
I mean, like look, I've seen it on my other side as a, you know, chairman of Orbs as a public company. That's one where like that's going to be like human proof authentication. That's going to be like a core layer that we see there. I think cyber security is going to be a key area. you're going to see big changes in e-commerce and on the retail side.
I mean JD like this it speaks to my point like we're only in third inning of this all playing out the view there's going to be some sort of like crack in the armor too big to fail open AI deepseek moment look it just speaks like we'll have those moments but it's not the end like I view them as just more nervous periods.
the deep sea I mean the deepseek fueled sell-off takes me back because you're right it kind of we we look at it and it's it's sort of like a blip in a much bigger story but in the in the moment when we had that big equity selloff um you know you're kind you you you're all sitting there and you're kind of requesting the reality of the world and to your point I mean all these stocks went on to reach all-time highs shortly thereafter um I wonder how do you how do you go about separating signal from noise amid the AI innovation Dan we're in this age I mean you hear all the earnings calls everyone's trying to reference AI maybe more than they even need to.
What do you look at to to give you some sense of what's substantive and what might not be? But even on Deep Seek, right, like that weekend we talked about it like it was fake essentially. Like you had to add two commas to the zeros that they actually spent and they were basically sto you know stolen Nvidia chips through Singapore.
See the problem is like you get caught up in the narratives on both sides on the negative but also on the positive. If me and you started a company we called it GDAI is in AI play because we say AI 30 times in a conference call. I mean but like that's also why like three and a half million air miles the last 25 years right like I spend all my time like visiting companies trying to separate winners from losers.
I mean that's you know that's what I view is kind of like that's our value ad Dan one of the more defining moments of at least on the equity side here in 2025 the liberation day selloff we reached a bare market at least intraday back around April 7th how much are the tariff and trade policy uncertainty maybe especially because we don't know what's going to come out of the Supreme Court what does that mean for a lot of the big tech firms that you cover and and give guidance closely.
Well, I think also the bark was a lot worse than the bite. You're seeing much now US China, you know, much more cooling and maybe better relation, especially Trump visiting China in April. Look, I mean, the the Supreme Court, they could definitely take that out. I think there were other ways that they could still do tariffs.
You're still going to get to some sort of blended tariff, you know, what I probably viewing like the low to mid- teens. And I think the markets adjusted to that. But look, that was, you know, that was a scary moment. But I think it was a good, if you look at Deep Seek, you look at Liberation Day, you look at some of the US China tensions, the geopolitical Middle East.
The reality is like when you look back there has created the opportunities in especially in teto in the winners. uh two key names still private anthropic open AAI um I I think that one of the narratives has been maybe for some proxies you look to Microsoft you look to Oracle a few other publicly traded names if you have investors that that kind of want to play the publicly traded proxies of some of those firms who are those names I wonder from where you're situated and thoughts on potential IPO for a name like Open AI that would be a huge one next year
yeah especially anthropic right this probably sooner open AAI I likely probably not next year. You maybe late next year, early the following year. Um, look, I think Palunteer is a very good barometer, especially with the from a technology perspective when you look at the potential. Yeah. Like there's, you know, Oracle and some of the bigger tech plays.
But the reality is like when you look at XAI and Anthropic and Open AI, I mean, they're still private. And I think one of the barometers when it comes to like bubble and whatever like you don't have the biggest companies still being private in a bubble. All right, I'll leave it there. Uh I just an amazing conversation and perspective from one of the industry's absolute best, the great Dan Ives, good friend of ours, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities. All the best for the holidays.
Comments 0