저자: Edward · 외국인
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결론: 버핏이 비트코인을 싫어하는 이유는 가치저장 수단일 뿐 현금흐름을 만들지 않는 자산이기 때문이며, 튤립 버블 사례처럼 가격 상승 외에 상승 근거가 없어 신중해야 한다. 비트코인 비판 논리: 버핏은 비트코인을 조개껍데기에 비유했으나, 조개껍데기도 과거 실제 화폐로 쓰였다는 점에서 역설적이라고 지적. 버핏은 사업(재화·서비스 생산)을 자산으로 보고 금처럼 보유만 하는 것을 낭비로 여김. 비트코인도 수익은 더 비싸게 사줄 사람이 있어야만 발생한다는 구조. 튤립 버블 사례: 17세기 네덜란드 황금기에 튤립 구근이 전문 상인 거래에서 일반 투자자로 확산되며 평균 노동자 연봉 수년치까지 폭등 후 붕괴. 경제 전체엔 큰 충격이 없었으나 많은 투자자가 파산. 최초의 금융 버블로 간주. 투자 조언: 비트코인은 자산배분의 일부로 고려 가능하나 매도 가격(출구 전략)을 미리 정할 것. 급락(sharp correction) 후 매수 권장, 신규 투자자는 특히 인내. 매수 후 보유 또는 단기 매매 여부를 계획할 것. 금은 100년 물가조정 차트상 1980년대 고점 매수 시 원금 회복에 30년 소요 사례 언급. 리스크 관리: 주당 1시간 뉴스 공부 권장(짐 크레이머 인용), 시간이 없으면 전문가 도움. 암호화폐 비중은 전체 포트폴리오 내 적정 수준으로 분산. 투자금은 70~80% 영구 손실을 감당할 수 있는 수준까지만. 잠을 설칠 정도라면 비중 축소. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 10만~100만 달러 전망에 대해 가격 지지 근거가 없다고 회의적. 특정 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Hi, I'm Edward welcome to the channel Have you ever wondered why Warren Buffett seems to hate cryptocurrency so much and hate Bitcoin in particular Well, I looked into it a little bit and if you understand the history of money and you understand something about tulipmania I think it explains the story very well.
So if you'd like to learn more stay tuned Okay, let's start with the history of money Nobody knows how money was actually invented. It's probably was invented many times around the world Probably many many times, but it's lost in history It's been around for so long but we have some clues as to how money might have started and Probably it happened with assess trade and barter system and after reason started settling down and living together in villages Probably we started to trade products back and forth.
Now what would happen if I wanted to trade for a particular product from you But you didn't have that product at that moment. What would we do? So for example, let's say I wanted to trade a goat for some fresh vegetables It's wintertime. You want the goat, but you don't have the vegetables yet. What would you do?
Well, you might give me some sort of token that Represents the vegetables that you owe me and say hey, don't worry bring this token back. It'll be a reminder for me next spring I'll plant extra vegetables And I'll pay you back for the goat that I'm taking right now so that token could be anything so what's really interesting about the history of money is we've seen all sorts of things used as tokens of storing value in the so for instance one interesting quote that Warren Buffett made fairly recently as he said, you know bitcoin is something like seashells or something.
Well interestingly enough It's very ironic that he said that because seashells have been used all over the world in Asia in Africa North America They've been used as a storm of value for absolutely centuries in fact I just recently found out that that shells are seashells are still being used as a sort of store value occasionally in the Solomon Islands so who knew?
So anyway, it made me start to think why is Warren Buffett talking about Seashells and you know comparing Bitcoin to seashells Clearly Warren Buffett knows that seashells were used as money at one time So, why would he think that that's somehow comparing Bitcoin and seashells? Make bitcoin seem illegitimate.
I Think there's a secret here. I think there's there's a point to his thinking that we have to understand so first of all What you have to understand about Warren Buffett is he hates the idea of just storing your Money in something so he's never been a big believer in in gold. For example He's always thought that gold is kind of a waste why?
You have to understand he sees a store of value is very different than the money-making asset Warren Buffett considers businesses businesses that produces something create a service offers something to the public These are what he considers assets Now of course gold is its own asset class, but it's not a money-making asset It basically just sits there.
It only makes money if somebody is willing to buy more of it And I think this is the problem that Warren Buffett has with cryptocurrency The only way that you really can make more money is if somebody is willing to pay more for your Bitcoin Than you paid for it So, of course, we don't know what's gonna happen with the price of Bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies.
They could go up a lot But I think we want to be very careful about Buying when we buy these cryptic because um, they're not actually making anything. They're not businesses There's no real reason for the price to go up except somebody else wants to pay more for it So let me give you a story from history that I think is quite interesting back in the 1600s This was considered the Dutch Golden Age and the Dutch at this time were traveling around the world there were great traders They were trapped traveling all over Asia and Eastern Europe they are very famous for trading with the Japanese and at one point had had a Monopoly in Japan so they were trading silk and they were trading spice all around Europe Bringing it from Asia making a ton of money So this is the age of the Dutch East Indian company, so I'll put a link down below In the description, you can learn more about the East the Dutch East India Trading Company which is a very famous company the time and in fact was the first multinational corporation so The Dutch were very famous for trading these exotic products from from Asia But they were also very famous for profit trading more mundane products from Eastern Europe Wood grain, and so on and they were stockpiling a lot of it.
So when other countries ran out of food or how to had some sort of a crop failure the Dutch often would come to the rescue and Make a ton of money added at the same time So the Dutch at this time in the Dutch Golden Age were making tons and tons of cash. So Where do we store the cash? Well a hundred years or maybe a hundred years 150 years.
I forget now tulips had been first imported into Holland from Turkey and these tulips right from the beginning where were quite valued by the Dutch because of the vibrant colors of the flowers and so on and you know, People just loved them. They were new Originally these bulbs these tulip bulbs were only handled by professional flower traders and only they would would purchase from each other but suddenly Because of all the extra cash washing around because of all this trade that the Dutch were doing money started flowing into these tulips these tulip bulbs and actually regular people average investors were starting to buy these bulbs and The idea was hey if I buy these bulbs Maybe somebody was willing to pay more for them later and the price will go up and the price really did go up In fact at the peak some bulbs were selling for many years of an average laborers full yearly salary so it they got to astronomical prices and there was no good reason because it's not a Profit-making asset it was just a store of value like a seashell so suddenly Eventually, somebody realized or number of people realized hey These prices are insane.
These are tulip bulbs. What are we doing? And the price suddenly collapsed now it did nothing to the economy but per se the Dutch Golden Age continued for many many more years after the This first bubble. And by the way, this tulip mania bubble is considered the first bubble the first financial bubble and In the end a lot of people lost a lot of money.
A lot of people were financially ruined So what can we learn about this? I? think The reason Warren Buffett hates Bitcoin so much is he sees two problems It's only a store of value which he doesn't love in the first place He thinks it's a waste to leave your money in a store of value Number two, he sees the risk From history that if prices do get say let's look at Bitcoin I see all over the place people saying it's gonna get to a hundred thousand or a million at a certain point You're gonna have to ask yourself gee bitcoins at a hundred grand Why would it why is it at this price and why would it go any higher a million?
What if it got to a million? Why would it maintain that price and we have to be logical about it? The only reason it would ever attain a hundred thousand or more I'm not saying it won't it could the only reason it would is more and more people think that somebody else in the future Will buy it from them for a higher price so My suggestion is go ahead and buy bit Bitcoin or go ahead and buy Whatever cryptocurrency you want to invest in.
I do support it. I think as an asset class It makes sense to to have it as a percentage of your overall asset investment plan But that's the key have a plan Know what you're going to do with it know what your exit price is. Make sure you're not buying into high I think you should sit back. Don't get so excited about the price.
Let's see what happens stocks Everything every asset class goes up and down and if you buy it at the wrong time You could be in a serious problem for example, I'm gonna put in a link down below about the price of the hundred year price of gold know that that Graph that I'm gonna add it's it's adjusted for inflation So keep that in mind, but if you take a look that at the last two peaks of gold There was a 30 year gap if you bought at in the 1980s at the last peak of gold Or the second last peak of gold it took you 30 years to get your money back.
So what I'm saying is, you know Maybe bitcoins a good price right now. I don't know but at a hundred thousand should you be a buyer? I'm not so sure I would be waiting for a sharp Correction in price before I purchased any more cryptocurrency at this point if you already own it. Hey, no problem But if you're new to it, and you're just buying cryptocurrency for the first first time I would highly suggest you be patient and wait for a sharp correction in price before you make any purchases Number two, I think you absolutely have to have a plan.
Are you going to be trading in and out of this security? I'm going to be making another trading video very shortly Talking about how you can actually profit from the volatility of cryptocurrency But should you be a buy and hold person at a very high price or should you trade in and out of it? I think you should probably trade in and out of it.
Just like you would gold or some other asset That's that's not a money-making asset Okay, so I have three tips for you when you're thinking about buying cryptocurrency at this point Remember, it's not an asset. Sorry. It's not a money-making asset. So keep that in mind. So make sure you do your homework My suggestion is this actually this is not my suggestion.
My suggestion is coming from a guy named Jim Cramer I read his book a hundred years ago called Confessions of a street addict the one line. I really remember from that book is you should be spending one hour per week per asset just Studying the news what's going on? So if you're not prepared to put in at least an hour a week Studying the news on Bitcoin or whatever crypto currency or crypto currency in general My suggestion is don't invest get a professional to help you To keep track of what's going on because prices move very quickly in this market Number two learn from history.
Look at that tulip mania story Don't put all of your eggs in one basket if you're gonna buy cryptocurrency, make sure it's part of your overall diversification Strategy, I'm not gonna tell you what percentage Cryptocurrencies should be in your portfolio. But keep it reasonable make sure that you know, you don't have everything in cryptocurrency it should be spread through other stocks and perhaps even bonds depending on your Risk tolerance.
And again, if you need help with this, I suggest seeing a financial professional before you make any investment at all Number three, this is really important. Don't invest more than you're prepared to lose What's that number? So obviously it's really easy to get greedy and go. Oh my god, you know cryptocurrencies up 20% It's up 50.
It's up 200% Let's just dump money into it. It's easy to get greedy Don't get greedy with this kind of and with any investment. Don't get greedy with this kind of investment What's the size of investment should you make I would say take a look at the number on the piece of paper and say? To yourself if I lost 70 or 80 percent of this money permanently How would I feel about that?
If you can look yourself in the mirror and say all right. Yeah, I lost 80 percent It's gone forever But it was worth the gamble and that's that might be an appropriate amount of cryptocurrency if on the other hand, you look yourself in the mirror and you say 70 80 percent loss of this it would financially destroy me Obviously, you have too much.
So if you're losing sleep over the amount of cryptocurrency you have, especially if you're going to lose sleep thinking about losing 70 or 80 percent of your cryptocurrency You've got too much I would suggest Lightening the amount of cryptocurrencies. You have your portfolio. So I hope these stories helped you I hope that The tips I gave you are useful for you And I wish you a lot of luck investing in the cryptocurrency market if you have any questions Leave her in the comments below and I'll get back to you as soon as I can
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