저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 치폴레는 하락 추세 속 저항 확인으로 약세 경계, 바이오(AGN)·알리바바·테슬라·애플은 돌파/반등 셋업으로 상승 기대. [치폴레(CMG)] 주간 차트상 2년 반 동안 750달러에서 270달러 부근까지 꾸준히 하락해 온 종목이다. 과거 반등 때마다 매도세가 나와 장기 하락 추세가 이어졌다. 현재 340달러 부근이 주요 저항선으로, 이를 돌파하기 전까지는 약세로 본다. [AGN(엘러간, 바이오)] 진행자가 가장 선호하는 바이오주로, 바이오 ETF(IBB) 내 종목이다. 주간 차트 하단 채널선에서 두 번 반등했고, 지난주 망치형 캔들 후 이번 주 고점을 높이며 반등을 확인 중이다. 하락 추세 내 반등이지만 RSI 30 부근 반등 패턴이 반복돼 상승 기대. 170달러 지지선 하향 이탈 후 망치형 거래량 급증 및 재돌파로 '거짓 이탈(false breakdown)'이 확인됐다고 본다. 20일 이동평균선 상회 마감이 확인 조건이다. 1차 목표가는 85달러, 그 이상 상승 가능성도 언급. [알리바바(BABA)] 2017년부터 이어진 상승 추세선을 이탈했으나, 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림 레벨과 거래량 집중 구간(약 179~180달러)에서 지지 여부를 시험 중이다. 180달러 돌파 및 추세선 재돌파가 확인돼야 숏 셋업이 무효화된다. 215달러 부근 눌림 시 매수 기회로 제시. [테슬라(TSLA)] 단기 하락 추세선을 돌파했고 스퀴즈(볼린저밴드 수축 후 돌파) 패턴이 나왔다. 320~250달러 부근 재테스트를 좋은 매수 기회로 보고, 상단 저항은 335달러와 360달러. [애플(AAPL)] 단기 하락 추세선을 거래량 동반하여 돌파했다. 171달러 부근 재테스트 시 롱 진입이 유효하며 단기 목표는 176달러 부근, 전고점 돌파 가능성도 언급. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 기술적 분석 기반 트레이딩 교육 목적으로 강한 상승 확신을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hi traders thanks for stopping by in some improve your trading and the first one we're going to cover is Chipotle and I want to comb cover something right here is we have this big move higher right here but as you can see look at this topping tail right here okay this is not a very bullish candle right there alright so we've got that rejection point and it's just very simple resistance point okay that's really all of this we've got this resistance from here they're these resistance points so we came up here we filled this gap right here and then we got rejected right there okay now you got to look at the longer-term view here on Chipotle and it's just a crap stock okay it's been heading lower I'll go to the weekly timeframe so you can really see it so just look in the last two years here two years well two and mmm two and a half years really we've been going straight down from 750 all the way down to you know 270 okay so you got to really pay attention to those the major chart here and that you know there's got to be a reason that has been too for this long and also as you can see all these pops have been sold into so here's a little pop here at the beginning of 2016 okay and it just got sold off into boom here we have a little pop that happened near the end of 2016 17 here gets sold off boom big time so gotta kind of expect that moving forward for Chipotle so this is a big time level resistance obviously we'll be singing a different tune if we end up breaking over about 340 but until it does that this is major resistance for GN and if you watched our biotech video you know that we like we have liked biotechs 4 along here for since last week and we've been doing really good on that if you follow those videos you know that we called for the breakout and we're getting that breakout right now and in fact we think it's going to continue so with that said I wanted to touch on my favorite biotech stock within IBB and that's AG n here and I'll go over exactly why so we're gonna cover the weekly chart here and here's the weekly chart going back you know to the end of 2014 you can see we have this lower channel line started here bounced directly off of it right here here's a bounce directly off of it right here and here we are reacting to that level look at last week we had a hammer alright had a hammer right off of it okay and then this week we're already making higher highs than last week somewhat confirming obviously the week hasn't closed just yet but as of right now we're confirming that this hammer is getting a bounce right there and if you notice too if you look on the weekly chart look at all the other times that we've gotten a bounce so here's a bounce here where was RSI down here at 30 here's the bounce where was our aside down here at 30 here's that bounce we saw where was our side down here at 30 you know here right there same thing our aside down here at 30 and look at where our Esaias down here for a GM so obviously you know the these bounces are in within a downtrend meaning you know we get a bounce here but then we get sold off here but you know you can make some really nice trades on the upside in a downtrend so I do think that we're gonna get a nice bounce on a GN and I'll go over another reason to and this is a really really this is something you really need to pay attention to and it's called a false breakdown okay there's false break outs which are to the upside and then they break to the downside and then false break downs are when you break down okay and then you break back up up above that resistance level so here's exactly what I'm talking about so we had this support level right here at about 170 okay you can clearly see it right there right there alright we break that support right here two days in a row right here and then look at this we get this hammer candle right here on heavy volume and you got to think that this is buying volume because why do we know it was buying volume because we had a hammer here heavy volume and then the next day it got a bounce and then we've held these levels okay if this was selling volume all right then we would have had a red day the next day and it would this hammer candle wouldn't have gotten confirmed alright not only that but we broke back above that support so it turned into resistance all right and then we're back right back above that level okay that is there this is one of the most bullish things that you can look for and you know vice versa if there's a false break out it's one of the most bearish things it's very it's not only one of the most accurate patterns but well I don't like to call it a pattern because it's not really a pattern it's a setup okay not only is it one of the more accurate setups here but it's also one of the more has the biggest move after it okay I'm losing my train of thought here but but bear with me so it has big implications okay very very accurate and you see big moves come from them so today was day one okay today was day one that was the confirmation that this was indeed a false breakdown okay if it breaks down you know I get a lot of comments you know I got a comment here last week on some other stock where it broke support and someone said oh it's a false breakdown you don't know it's a false breakdown until it does this okay that's what makes it false breakdown otherwise you're just making stuff up okay so right here this is a false breakdown confirmed today okay confirm today we also closed above the 20-day moving average all right that's another thing that you really want to look for all right close above the 20-day moving average or a side back around above 50 false breakdown I think that agian can get pretty explosive from here first target would be 85 but honestly I think an get move even even more than that so looking for a bounce here on a yet the next one we're going to take a look at is Alibaba Alibaba I want to point out a couple things okay you can see right here we have a huge pattern that Baba broke out of so here's that trend line started here beginning in 2017 we'd see how many bounces we have off of this trend line look at that so many bounces there got another bounce here right here off of it and then we broke it right here and then if you notice we're kind of coming up to retest it we haven't quite retested the trend line but what we did retest is if you draw a Fibonacci retracement level from these highs to these lows right here the high of today pretty much you know misted by a penny or two is the sixty one point eight for banana retracement level from the high here to the Loews here alright so another thing too is we've got this volume porn and control right here that we ran into as well so here we are right in there at that volume point and control right around you know 180 179 okay so also all above us also the trend line is above us so we've got a lot of work to do here for Alibaba and we got a break over 180 for me to kind of consider this well actually we have to break back over this trend line here to kind of make this an invalid short set up okay so right here is where Baba needs to prove itself because we're right here at the Fibonacci retracement level to 61 point 8 everything else that I've mentioned here so key level here for Alibaba that you really want to hone into if you're training or investing i twitter bounced exactly where it had to and what do I mean by that well he had this big time previous resistance level right there right here and as you can see we're kind of playing with it right here also here we are we needed a bounce here and that's exactly what happened so we not only did that though we have some pretty pretty fierce candles here this is a nice breakout candle here very strong and I think that if we get some kind of a dip into about 21 15 or so kind of near the open of today I think that will probably be a good buying opportunity as I think this stock is probably going to break out some more here another thing that I forgot to mention too is it's also of the volume point of control here if you go back about six months it's the volume point of control right there which is where we bounced out so we came into the volume point of control bounced it did exactly what should have on Twitter the next one we're going to take a look at is Tesla Tesla Here I am expecting some higher prices on this stock why do I say that well a couple of reasons we broke over this downtrend line started here a couple rejections there hit it dead on there here's a hit here's a hit and then we kinda broke over it last training session on Friday and then officially broke over at really today and we did so with some pretty decent volume as well not only that but we have a squeeze breakout play right here where we broke over broke out of this very tight Bollinger Band range and what does that mean well it just means it's been trading sideways here for a little while and I can just draw a little box there so you can see that even more clearly so trading sideways for a little while creates an energy buildup okay same kind of thing that we saw let me just delete that same kind of thing that we saw right here you can see traded sideways right here big move down after that kind of expecting the same kind of thing so if it retests about 320 250 or so to me that's going to be a good buying opportunity we've got a lot of resistance above us to deal with those so just gotta kind of be aware of that we've got resistance right here from this previous support right there right there finally we broke through it right here but that level is right around 335 next resistance which is the biggest resistance is right here at about 360 it's based off of this resistance previously that we saw on Tesla so I definitely think we can break higher here on Tesla just pay attention these resistance levels that are overhead next one we're going to take a look at is Apple Apple is another one that I think can head higher from here what we want to focus on is we broke over this downtrend line okay there's a very short-term downtrend line started here got a couple it's there here-here-here this day finally we broke over it we not only broke over that but and then we have a nice little volume pop to you can see that volume was declining while we're trading sideways and then boom we see this breakout in volume as we break over this resistance here I think that a retest of you know maybe 171 approximately is probably going to be a good long entry we're probably gonna retest all-time highs maybe break them who knows but for now just targeting you know near about 176 or so in the near term for Appl because get better as a trader and to start making winning trades in the market
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