저자: EricWilkinson'TheWolfman' · 외국인
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결론: 2017년 10월 31일 시장 코멘터리로, 유럽·미국 경제지표는 대체로 양호하고 금은 1250 부근까지 하락 가능성을 보며, 나스닥에는 약세 풋스프레드를 건 상태이고, 마스터카드(MA) 풋매도와 EA 상승 베팅을 제시함. [경제지표] 유로존 GDP 전기 대비 0.5%(예상치 부합, 전월 0.6%→0.7%), 프랑스 소비지출 0.9%(예상 0.6%), 유로존 CPI 속보 연 1.4%(예상 1.5%), 근원 CPI 연 0.9%(예상 1.1%)로 하회. 미국 고용비용지수 0.7%(예상 부합), 시카고 PMI 66.2(예상 60.2, 크게 상회), 소비자신뢰지수 125.9(예상 121.1). 중국·아시아 제조업 PMI 51.6(예상 52.2)은 하회해 연말 경기 둔화 신호로 해석. [이벤트] 내일 원유 재고 발표와 FOMC 성명이 중요. FOMC는 기준금리 1.25% 동결이 예상되나, 물가에 매파적 기조와 향후 금리 인상 신호가 나올 것으로 봄. [원유] 소폭 상승했으나 큰 움직임 없음. 조정 후 숨고르기로 보며 재고 발표 전 포지션 헤지 흐름 관측. [금] 피보나치 61.8% 레벨 반등 후 재하락 중. 포인트 오브 컨트롤과 맞물리나 200일선 지지 가능성 있음. 여전히 1250까지 하락 전망 유지. [채권·금리] 내일 FOMC에서 금리 인상 가능성을 시사할 것으로 예상(금리 상승 방향). 인플레이션에 매파적 태도 예상. [지수·변동성] VIX 두 자릿수 유지. 다우 소폭 상승, 나스닥은 고점 가능성으로 보고 풋 스프레드(트리플큐 약세) 포지션 보유, 전일 도지 캔들 상향 돌파 시 손절 예정. S&P 500 e-mini는 횡보, 인사이드 데이 구간에서 데이트레이딩 전략 제시. [엔비디아] 최고가 경신. 가정용 PC·게임 수요 강세로 긍정적이나, 암호화폐 채굴이 GPU에서 클라우드로 전환되면 악재로 보며 향후 숏 기회 탐색. 이번 실적 발표 직전에는 숏 보류(실적 호조 예상). [마스터카드·비자] 실적 호조에도 주가 조정. 소득은 정체지만 소비지출(신용 소비)은 증가로 보아 강세 전망. 마스터카드 11월 140 풋 매도(프리미엄 0.55, 손익분기 139.45), 만기 17~18일 남음, 마진계좌에만 진입. [EA(일렉트로닉 아츠)] 실적 시간외 발표 후 상승 베팅 예정, 실적 서프라이즈 경향 언급. 클로락스(표백제)는 규칙 불충족으로 보류 가능성. [기타] 금요일 웨비나에서 콜 크리스마스 트리(1x3x2 버터플라이) 전략 소개 예고. [리스크] 본인 리스크 파라미터를 모르므로 추천 아님을 명시, 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to pro trader strategies market commentary for Tuesday October the 31st Halloween my best attempt at a scary laugh anyway my name is Eric Wilkinson some of you may recognize me as the wolf man from CNBC Fox business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical and market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talk about in these market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities or strategies at the end of the day we're here to teach you some different strategies that you can implement into your portfolios but please do that in your own way the reason why I can't give you a recommendation on a particular stock or strategy is because I don't know your risk parameters I don't know what's in your portfolios and therefore what I'm doing could be counterintuitive to what you are already doing and please remember the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results I think all that out of the way let's get it on a little bit of economic data here are actually across the pond let's start there we got European GDP month or quarter over quarter coming in line with expectations at 0.5% and last month's number was revised up slightly from point five percent to point six percent then we also got French consumer spending came in at point nine percent expected to be 0.6 percent and they revised last month's number up from point negative point three percent to negative point two percent and then preliminary CPI which is consumer price index month-over-month in line with expectations at 0.1 percent and revised last month's numbered down from point negative point one percent to negative 0.2 percent and then we also got the European CPI flash estimate year-over-year coming in at one point four percent expected to be one point five percent and then the core Consumer Price Index flash estimate year-over-year came in at point nine percent which was lower than the expected one point one percent and then European flash GDP came in at point six percent was expected to be 0.5 and they revised last month's number up slightly from point six percent to point seven percent so the that flash GDP going to be the widely looked at one and then the preliminary sorry what was the other one that I wanted to look at all right anyway I know the United States we got the employment Cost Index came in at 0.7 percent expected to be point seven percent now if you remember we already got the economic data point pretty much in the consumer on the consumer side which kind of gave us a headway to that with the house the what was it the not the household personal income so personal incomes not going up then we're not going to probably see that reflected in the the numbers here in the United States for the employment Cost Index alright anyway Chicago PMI came in at sixty six point two is expected to be sixty point two so a lot better reading there and then we've got the consumer confidence number coming in at one twenty five point nine expected to be one twenty one point one and they revised last month number from one 19.8 to one twenty point six so good economic dated there oh that's the other thing I wanted to mention was yesterday across the pond actually in Asia we got manufacturing PMI came in at fifty one point six which was lower than the expected fifty two point two so that came out late last night and then you know that's not a great sign heading into a holiday season that we're seeing that pull back a little bit then tomorrow we get crude oil is M and the FOMC statement so those are gonna be some pretty important numbers coming out with the R is M cross upon we may get to flash we get the Institute for Supply Management all right on to the overall markets we got crude oil moving a little bit higher today I talked about this yesterday you know we needed a confirmation to see if that was a top to me it looks like it's kind of a a breather if you will after the big rally but if we don't get much of a move it looks like people are going to be shoring up their positions hedging them ahead of tomorrow's data point on crude oil inventories so crude oil just really not doing anything up about four cents and then we got gold futures coming back off again after testing the 61 fibbed level right there at the the fib level is actually lined up perfectly with the point of control which is where the most volume has been spent the time volume of time node is just a little bit lower than where we are now and then you know we have the 200-day moving average that's going to probably act as a support but I still am looking for it to trade down to 1250 all right bonds right there point of control go figure tomorrow's FOMC me meeting I'm going to give us a little bit more insight as to directionality of the bonds I think that they're going to be more hawkish on inflation and kind of start to give up a little bit more Nuggets as to what they are going to do going forward and I think it's going to be the increasing interest rates tomorrow's meeting is expect widely expected to remain unchanged at one point two five percent but I think that they're gonna kind of let the cat out of the bag and say you know coming forward we're gonna be looking at raising interest rates the economy is kind they somebody said yesterday I can't remember exactly how it was it said that inflation is in check but I think that they are going to be very weary of that the fact of the matter is is increasing interest rates is going to help their overall balance sheet so I think that they are a little bit torn as to what they should be doing we got the VIX pretty much unchanged slightly dumped off a little bit but still up in the double digits got a bit of a mixed bag across the board with the Dow Jones up here about 27 points yesterday we had a nice sell-off in there I was looking at the Nasdaq as this being a bit of a top yesterday remember I talked about that I actually put on a put spread based on that as you can tell I'm usually early to the trade I kind of look at the setup so I don't necessarily always wait for them to get confirmed I like to get in a little bit earlier than that but I am gonna have a short leash on this if this continues higher and breaks above this doji here from yesterday that I'm going to be probably pulling the ripcord on that Nasdaq triple-qs trade that I kind of added at the end of their like forgot that I got that trade right at the getting out on with my talk and forgot about that but I did have a triple Q's bearish in both my IRA and in my margin yesterday in many XS and peas up slightly now by about four and a half points it's just kind of trending sideways you know yesterday I thought it looked like we were gonna get a bit of a move down overall economic picture not really leading one to believe that necessarily we need to have a bit of a correction but I think that it's healthy after seeing this rally that we would get something at least maybe you come down and test the value area high here and 50-day moving average but it doesn't seem to be coming to fruition on that then on to the daily chart of the e-mini S&P s this is a 30-minute Candles of each individual day these are day segments including the overnight session and as you can see we have an inside day here value area high lining up with yesterday's value Airy high and the value area low is inside of yesterday's range so good for day traders to trade on this you know you kind of sell it when it hits yesterday's value area I and buy it when it comes down to test them value area low maybe get out of somewhere we met the point of control from yesterday but that's how you kind of trade these on an intraday basis and those guys are probably playing that pretty nicely today on to a couple of other things now Nvidia and videos making all-time highs right well one of the things that I've talked about several times is Nvidia AK it seemed to be going back to the home computer the standalone PC if you will and getting away from the iPads and things of that nature because they're they're stronger they're faster and they're playing these video games online that need need to have that kind of processing power now another side is we look at the crypto currencies crypto currencies use Nvidia because they use GPUs right now and I saw something online yesterday where that I don't trade crypto currencies very often but eridium I think is what it's called it's that one that starts with an E E I or something anyway they said that they were going to go away from using GPUs and they were going to start using the cloud and a POS way of processing this information it is a lot cheaper it is stored in the cloud and because they're going away from the GPU aspect and into the cloud that is going to negatively affect Nvidia so going forward I'm going to be looking at opportunities to short this now having said that they do have earnings coming out pretty soon I'm not going to play this I think that earnings come out on the night I'm not gonna play this as a short right now because I think that they're gonna come out and beat on earnings so I'm not going to play that as a short now but going forward I'm going to be looking at opportunities for that because once they do that Bitcoin might do the same thing and if they that all starts happening that could very well negatively affect Nvidia going forward all right so on to what I've done yesterday on the earnings I couldn't get these trades off for the price that I wanted to do I didn't want the penny or did I want the trade it would have been actually a winner right off the bat this morning we've seen quite a bit of correction despite the fact that MasterCard has beat on earnings as well visa but I think what happened maybe here is that people were pricing in better than what was expected earnings already and when they didn't maybe get what they were kind of looking for that market kind of came off I talked about it I think that mastercard visa with the income situation that that the consumer income isn't rising but consumer spending is that generally equates to buying on credit and therefore I'm bullish on these two stocks being Visa and MasterCard ticker symbol ma in MasterCard so what I did was in my margin account I didn't touch it in my IRA I want to still save some room in my IRA for trades for earnings trades going forward but with my margin account I went in there and sold in November so they expire in 1718 days and sold the November 140 puts for 55 cents and if I throw up if this is going to allow my system to pull this up not really gonna probably let me pull this up real quick let me see if I can get a fib real quick quick and dirty fibonacci on here I think that if I can pull this up and look at this as a Fibonacci on come on now as you can see basically the 140 handles right here so it's just slightly above this bid Bonacci level but being able to collect 55 cents that puts my breakeven down at one thirty nine forty five so that kind of coincides with this Fibonacci level we also have the 200-day moving average above that so I've got a couple of places where the market is going to want to migrate to this but this volume node this volume node if it wants to go down it's gonna find support on the 50-day and the Fibonacci so having said that I'm pretty comfortable with this trade especially with only 17 days to go I think this might just be a little bit of a bow you on the up pattern as you can see it's trending nicely to the upside so I added that to my margin account and then today we have right after the closed EA sports which I'm going to be like looking to play to the upside they've had a tendency to really nicely beat on earnings as you can see here so I'm going to be playing that to the upside that's kind of long lines with those kids really like in these video games if you will so playing EA sports the upside the other one I make be considering it's kind of doesn't it's not really fitting my rules on the width of the bid-ask on this but Clorox bleach has a tendency to do well on earnings as well so most likely going to go with the EA Sports for the earnings trade and I'm going to be looking to sell some puts in there and maybe a put spread in my IRA so that's all I got for you guys today Friday's webinar is going to be on the call Christmas tree and it's in the butterfly family I know everybody loves butterflies so I've been getting a lot of questions about this and it is also known as a 1 by 3 by 2 so we're gonna be looking to build that strategy out to increase your probabilities of success I'll show you the way that we traded it on the floor and how to get into that and get out of that trade when to get out alright so go to pro trader strategies.com sign up for that if you can't take that take it easy
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