1 Michael Burry Stock Down 70% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip | The Big Short | Super Investors

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결론: 마이클 배리가 보유한 알리바바는 70% 하락 후 저평가 구간이라 중국 경기 재개방 수혜가 기대되는 매력적인 매수 기회로 본다. 마이클 배리는 2008년 주택시장 붕괴를 예측해 명성을 얻었으며, 최근 포트폴리오는 9개 종목이고 알리바바(9.46%)와 JD닷컴(9.05%)이 큰 비중이다. 이는 중국 경기 재개방에 베팅한 것으로 해석된다. 알리바바 실적: 2022년 12월 31일 기준 매출 약 2,475억 위안 중 중국 커머스 부문이 1,699억 위안 수준으로 대부분을 차지하며, 영업이익도 중국 커머스 부문에서 대부분 나온다. 따라서 중국 경기와 상업 활동 회복이 알리바바에 직접적인 호재다. 밸류에이션: 주가는 이미 70% 하락했고 현재 PER은 약 10.87배로 최근 2년 반 사이 가장 저렴한 수준이다. 최근 12개월 매출은 약 1,282.7억 달러, 영업이익은 약 153.8억 달러로 성장과 수익성을 함께 갖추고 있다. 리스크: 중국 정부와의 관계, 미중 갈등 등 지정학적 리스크가 주가 할인의 주된 원인이다. 발언자는 이 리스크가 과도하게 반영됐을 수 있다고 보지만, 리스크는 여전히 존재한다고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 알리바바 밸류에이션이 리스크 대비 수익 잠재력을 충분히 보상한다고 판단하며, 투자자들이 하락에 과잉 반응했다는 배리의 시각에 동의한다.

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01. Alibaba is one Michael burry stock down 70 here that's what I'm going to talk about in this video of course Michael burry gained his Fame by correctly predicting the housing market crash in 2007-8-9 and now when he makes predictions investors listen investors listen and investors are very curious about what Michael burry is doing in his portfolio of course in its most recent update Michael burry only had nine stocks in his portfolio one of them being Alibaba at 9.46 9.46 Michael burry also owns jd.com at 9.05 so Michael burry it looks like is betting on the economic reopening in China to Spur growth in the region which will result in booming results for these stocks that are reliant on the Chinese economy what I have here is alibaba's latest Financial update as of December 31 2022 you could see that uh Alibaba across the board here this is the revenue of its all of its businesses and overall it had about 30 uh let's let's go RMB 247 uh 1756 RMB uh of that two four seven seven five six 169 986 came from China Commerce right and then if you look across the board at its income from operations the vast majority of its income from operations comes from that China Commerce segment fifty three thousand one two seven so the Chinese economy is extremely important for Alibaba and the reopening and the increase in Commerce in the region is going to be good news for Alibaba of course the stock is already down seventy percent and that's understandable because of the headwinds in that economy but now Alibaba just 10.87 just 10.87 that's just about as cheap as this stock has been going back to two and a half years you have rarely had an opportunity to buy Alibaba stock at this cheap of a valuation so Michael burry is likely seeing an opportunity here to buy a stock at a reasonably inexpensive valuation that's going to capitalize from near-term Tailwinds from an economic reopening so if you look at alibaba's Revenue trailing 12 months at a 128.27 billion and its operating income of 15.38 billion in the trailing 12 months so it's a company that's growing Revenue at a profitable Pace right it's not uh sacrificing profits with the uh aim to grow Revenue if we look back further here you could see the explosive growth this company has delivered of course in recent years as a result of the pandemic and reopening and closing and all of that there's been some headwinds to the company as well as you know pressure from the government and the you know businesses in China do not have as a good relationship with their government as businesses in the U.S have there's a more adversarial relationship and of course that adds to the geopolitical risk of invest thinking Alibaba stock but I think that's contributing to why the stock is trading at such a inexpensive valuation is because of that geopolitical risk that's incorporated into the valuation here and in fact I think it might be overly incorporated into the valuation I think the valuation might be over compensating for that geopolitical risk in this case her nevertheless you cannot ignore the fact that there is an increased risk because of the geopolitical nature of this company and because of the region and the adversarial relationships not only between the government and the business but also between the US and the government so a lot of reasons to be hesitant here but but Michael burry looks like he's seeing an opportunity unity and thinking that investors might be overreacting to the downside which I agree with I agree with I think I think the valuation here offers investors a good risk versus return potential now keep in mind that it I am incorporating the fact that it has higher risk but I'm also saying that the return potential compensates investors enough for this risk enough for this risk okay all right so that's all I've got for this video I think Alibaba stock is one Michael burry stock down 70 percent really appreciate your viewership