Mohamed El-Erian: The worst of inflation is behind us, so the Fed should stay in wait-and-see

요약 보기

7/7 시장은 S&P500 -0.45%, 나스닥100 -1.77%로 약세, 에너지·헬스케어 강세와 기술·산업재 약세. 공포탐욕지수 43(공포). 엘에리언은 인플레이션 최악은 지났으나 연준은 관망(wait-and-see) 기조를 유지해야 한다고 언급. 반도체 -5.13%, 암호화폐 약세, 금리 상승 마감.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Mohamed El-Erian, the worst of inflation is behind us. So, the Fed maintained its energy and health-focused tone. Welcome to your daily market report for July 7, 2026. We will analyze the leadership, the macro context, and the most relevant factors for the upcoming session. Here's an overview of the market.

02. The S&P 500 fell 0.45% and closed at $7,503.85. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.77% and closed at $29,173.02. The Dow Jones fell 0.25% and closed at $52,925.15. The ETF curve below shows where relative strength and weakness developed during the session. The leaders were energy with +2.88 % and health with +1.56%; The laggards were technology with -2.39% and industrials with -1.72%.

03. In global markets, the session showed risk aversion with a widespread pullback; Asia suffered the most pressure, with Japan and Shanghai leading the decline. In perspective, the overall market traded in a subdued tone: the SPX closed at -0.45% and the NDX at -1.77% . The lead came from XLE and XLV, while the pressure was seen in XLK and XLI.

04. The stock market's fear and greed index is at 43, indicating fear, one point lower than in the previous reading. This points to a cautious environment where traders are still seeking confirmation before adding risk. The daily history shows that four of the four major ETFs are above their 200-day averages.

05. The Russell 2000 ETF has the strongest 20-day trend at +5.17%. A major ETF is within 1% of its 52-week high. This is useful because a close near highs means something different when the same assets are also holding above their long-term moving averages . Volume data shows zero tracked assets trading at least 20% above their 20-day average, while 10 were at least 20% below.

06. The strongest sign of participation came from energy, at 1.18 times the normal volume. I treat this as a layer of confirmation, not as a standalone signal, because price can move with little activity, but continuation usually requires participation. Among mega-cap companies, Apple had the strongest 20-day trend at + 1.08%, while Microsoft was the weakest at -6.68%.

07. This helps to separate the strength of the index from the mega-cap stocks that usually decide whether the movement has lasting leadership. In the S&P 500 heat map, the leaders were energy +2.88% and health +1.56%; The laggards were semiconductors -5.13% and industrials -1.72%. The market continues to operate under the Fed's lens, with investors using data such as upcoming macro reports to refine expectations about the next policy move.

08. If incoming data is strong, hopes for rate cuts could be postponed and put pressure on duration-sensitive sectors . The performance of raw materials was mixed. Brent crude led the way while gold lagged behind. So, the movement seemed selective rather than widespread. The index board trended downwards, with the Nasdaq showing the weakest tone and the Nikkei holding up better.

09. The curves for large-cap stocks were mostly positive, pointing to a general tone movement rather than a one-name story. Forex showed a risk-averse tone, with the most marked movement in the EUR/USD and the best relative strength in the USD/JPY. Cryptocurrencies remained under pressure, which helps confirm the overall risky tone of the market.

10. Bond curves suggest that yields mostly rose, so rates were still important in the session. The main focus remained concentrated on energy and healthcare leadership. The pressure points remained semiconductors and the industrial sector. Tomorrow's configuration depends on upcoming macro events, the direction of returns, and whether today's leadership can be sustained.

11. Following the statements of Mohamed El-Erian: "The worst of inflation is behind us ." Therefore, the Fed should remain in wait- and-see mode. This also matters because the market remains sensitive to macroeconomic headlines. That's the key takeaway for today's market. The overall market traded in a subdued tone, with the SPX closing down -0.45% and the NDX finishing down -1.77%.

12. The leadership came from XLE and XLV, while the pressure was reflected in XLK and XLI. Continue to watch for policy signals, index leadership, and upcoming macro catalysts. Subscribe for the next daily market summary.