Why Timing the Market Doesn't Work | Howard Marks | Stocks

요약 보기

대부분의 투자자는 시장 타이밍보다 대부분의 시간 투자를 유지하는 것이 낫다. 시장이 고평가라도 단기 하락을 보장하지 않으며(고평가 10%일 때 하락 확률 55~60% 정도), 타이밍으로 성공한 경우는 극단적 시점 5번뿐이다. S&P500은 1920년 이후 연 약 10.5% 복리로 상승했으며, 장기 보유가 핵심이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Now, I believe that most investors should be invested most of the time. The idea of being able to get in and get out and get in and get out, what we call market timing, is not a good idea for most investors. It's very hard to do. You have to understand the market. You have to stay in the economy. You have to study your psi psychology.

02. And you have to operate against your psychology. You have to buy when things are really bad and sell when things are really good. This is hard for most people. So I I don't think that the average viewer should try market timing. They should invest either all the time or almost all the time. Now it would be great to try to reduce your risk when the market is really high.

03. Hard to do. Maybe worth trying. But that's about it. And market timing most of the time uh is too hard to try. Now when I was working on my book about the cycle, I said to my son, who is a very important uh sounding board for me, I said, you know, I think my market calls have been correct over my career.

04. And you know what he said to me? That's because you did it five times in 50 years. This is very important concept. And you know he he he looks at all these questions with fresh eyes and makes great observations. Five times in my life the market was here or here. And on those occasions the error was obvious, the argument was compelling.

05. The chance of being right was very high. Here or here? What about here or here or here or here? In between it's not so obvious and uh the chance of being wrong is quite substantial. That's why people should not try this on a regular basis. And we don't try on a regular basis. We don't change from month to month or year to year, only in the extremes.

06. And and you know, and we're professionals and we think we understand the process and yet we don't try that often to time the markets. Um, and think about it this way. Let's say I told you that the market is 10% overvalued. Let's say I'm correct. What's the probability that it's going to go down over the next year versus up?

07. My guess would be 55 to 60%. It's it's very common for the market to be overvalued and go up further. And in fact, if the market c went down every time it was 10% overvalued, it would never get to 20% overvalued or 30% overvalued or 40%. And we've seen those occas and and and we would never have bubbles, which we do from time to time.

08. So clearly overpriced and going down tomorrow are not synonymous. And so I think for most people market timing is not the solution. For most people this the the answer is understand investing. Figure out a rational way to do it. Whether it's picking good companies or or going into funds or hiring a manager or something like that.

09. Don't expect too much. you know, uh, I go to people, I say, I think we can make you 8% a year. I think we can make you 12% a year with our riskier products. I say maybe we, uh, uh, I think we can make you 20% a year. Then the next guy comes in, he says, "We'll triple your money." He gets the money, but of course, his his activities are not founded on a solid foundation.

10. We're not going to produce miracles. If you can compound your money at at 10% a year, it's a great accomplishment. And most people should not expect to do that or or do better than that. The the the S&P 500, the main stock index in the United States, has risen at about 10 a.5% since 1920. Now, since 1920, we've had 17 recessions, the Great Depression, several wars, including a world war.

11. Now, we've had a pandemic, many geopolitical problems, many economic problems. We've still compounded at 10 and a half% a year. And if you put a dollar in the S&P in 1920 and you held it strongly, you never bought, you never sold, you know what you'd have today? 8,000. That's the magic of compound growth without interruption.

12. So for most people, the the answer is put your money in, understand what you're doing so that you can be steady. Mhm. Don't mess it up. And um I I think that uh there's a great American investor named Bill Miller who has one of the greatest records and he said I quote him as saying it's time not timing that produces success. Just just put your money in and let time pass.