저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 이 영상에서 자신의 원칙(Principles) 책과 브리지워터의 '아이디어 메리토크라시' 운영 방식을 소개하며, 중국 투자 확대와 긴축 축소에 대한 시각을 밝힌다. 책의 배경: 이번 책은 투자가 아닌 일과 삶에 대한 원칙을 담았으며, 투자 관련 내용은 별도 책으로 나온다고 설명한다. 대상 독자는 성공을 원하는 누구나다. 초기 실패 경험: 경력 초기 큰 손실로 회사가 거의 문을 닫을 뻔했고 아버지에게 돈을 빌렸다. 이 경험으로 '내가 옳다'에서 '내가 옳다는 것을 어떻게 아는가'로 사고방식이 바뀌었다. 아이디어 메리토크라시: 독립적 사고자들이 이견을 내고 그 이견을 가치 있게 여기는 구조를 만들었다. 솔직한 생각을 공개하고, 사려 깊은 이견을 나누고, 이견이 남을 때 해결 절차를 두는 세 가지가 핵심이다. 원칙의 알고리즘화: 20년 전부터 원칙을 알고리즘으로 바꿔 컴퓨터와 함께 의사결정을 하고 있으며, 이것이 적중률을 크게 높였다고 주장한다. 중국: 1984년부터 중국을 방문해 왔고 금융시스템 발전에 관여했다. 중국 부채는 대부분 자국 통화 표시라 관리 가능하다고 보며, 중국 투자 펀드 모집에 대해 긍정적이다. 미국 부채 문제와 비교하며 중국 투자에 좋은 이유가 있다고 본다. 중앙은행 긴축: 현재 경기 사이클 중간 부근이며 돈 찍기와 완화가 끝나가는 국면이라고 본다. 금리 추가 하락과 위험 프리미엄 축소는 어려우며, 중앙은행은 긴축을 매우 조심스럽게 하거나 거의 하지 않을 것으로 본다. 앞으로는 기업 수익성 변화(세제 개편, 규제 완화)가 더 중요하다. 양극화: 상위 0.1% 부(富)가 하위 90%와 맞먹는 상황을 문제로 보며, 정치·이념 갈등이 향후 중요한 변수라고 언급한다. 다만 최근 초당적 협력 조짐에 안도감을 표한다. AI: 의사결정 알고리즘화는 더 나은 결정을 낳지만 일자리를 대체할 것이며, 알고리즘의 논리를 이해하지 못한 채 맹신하면 위험하다고 경고한다. 과거 데이터에 기반한 알고리즘은 미래가 과거와 다르면 실패할 수 있다. 채용 조언: 브리지워터 지원자는 원칙과 문화 적합성을 먼저 확인하고, 16분짜리 TED 강연을 참고하라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
joining me now on the phone is Ray Dalio chairman and chief investment officer at Bridgewater associates the world's largest hedge fund with 160 billion dollars in assets under management he's also the author of the new book principles ray it's great to have you with me thank you for joining us my pleasure now it's interesting I thought this was going to be a book about investing but it's actually a compilation of principles as you call them on work and life the investing part is actually coming in a separate book what kind of audience are you targeting for this book well I think anybody who's trying to be successful and whether it's any organization it's about how to have great audacious goals and to fail and to learn from mistakes and to have relationships it's a it's basically a compendium of things I learned along the way and rode over the next the last 40 years to solve the problems I encountered so it's much broader base than the investment world and you talk about how Bridgewater almost shut down earlier on in your career you lost so much money in fact you had to borrow money from your father what did you learn from this experience yeah it was one of the worst and best experiences I had it was one of the most painful experiences I had and it it changed everything because I it changed my mindset from thinking I'm right to thinking how do I know I'm right it let me appreciate a path that allowed me to raise my probabilities of being right it it allowed me to create an idea meritocracy in which I could bring independent thinkers strong independent thinkers who could disagree with each other and value that disagreement to make decisions that it'd be much better than I ever could make alone it taught me to write down my principles this is basically like I say a compendium of principles written over a long period of time and by writing down those principles and then communicating them among ourselves and refining those principles so that whenever we encountered a specific type of thing we knew how to approach it and agree that that changed everything that that type of principle writing and then converting those principles to algorithms which we started to do 20 years ago and allow the computers to help us make decisions simultaneously was all really largely a product of of that it significantly raised our probabilities of being right and Bridgewater is an idea meritocracy that's essentially where the best ideas went out right exactly the thing I learned is that probably one of the greatest tragedies of mankind is individuals being attached to their opinions that they keep stuck in their heads and they don't put out and stress test those opinions and then take in the ideas of others it's the greatest tragedy of mankind because it's so easy to fix if you could have that quality thoughtful disagreement in all the three things that we do right and in order to have an idea meritocracy and I would recommend it to everybody if three things you need to do the first is you put need to put your honest thoughts on the table everybody needs to do that so they're out there and they can be examined the second thing you need to do is to have ways of having thoughtful disagreements so that people can find out what the best answers are not just the ones that happen to be in their heads and the third thing they need to do is when they have those disagreements that remain even after that is to have protocols for getting past those disagreements that our idea meritocratic and that's really been the secret to our success because you know in the markets in order to be able to beat the market you have to have an independent point of view that is different from the consensus because the consensus is built into the price Narae The Wall Street Journal reported that Bridgewater is raising money for a new China fund what is the latest on this and what is so appealing about China to you I mean many are worried about rising debt levels slowing economic growth what's your take I've been going to China since 1984 long before they had any money and I've been enjoying that and over those periods of time I've built these wonderful relationships and I've seen them from in 1989 there was a group in China of seven people who when they didn't have a financial system were working out of a digi hotel room and that was for them to build the financial system and I've had a pleasure of all through that time to develop wonderful relationships that with time helped to build helped them think through their you know their institutions and so the relationship has been fantastic so naturally what we want to do is to continue to grow with them as they're growing in their financial markets and the way they've opened up their financial markets and created capital market innovation over the last three years really I mean it's an incredibly fast pace means that they're they have liquid markets which have depth and you know accessibility so of course we're going to want to be part of that China's debt levels is that a worry for you as you explore deeper into China China China has a much lower level of debt but they have a debt it they definitely have a debt issue but the debt is denominated in their own currency and what I found is that their economic policymakers are are very very smart and sensible people they've been the world has been talking about the debt problem for a long time and we were one of the first to bring up the fact that there is a debt problem but well and what a debt is denominated in one's own currency it's manageable the usual ways you know the words you might extend the mature of the debt you might alter whose balance sheet is it's on you might have the interest rates changed you go through certain processes that we've been through to be able to manage that debt and there's done an excellent job I'm most importantly interested in the capabilities of the people who did it we went through our particular debt problems every country does it I'm I'm genuinely excited about the quality of the leadership in terms of practicality they can get stuff done and right on their reforms are a move toward you know sensible much more market-driven economics but with God and so I see the end of it innovation I'm very excited about China but anyway it's like your question would be a little bit like asking me would you want to leave the United States because the United States has a debt problem I was here in the United States I love the markets we did well in 2008 in our business the key question is whether you make two decisions correctly not there's not such thing as a bull market or a bear market 2008 because we anticipated the crisis we did well in any country it's the same set of rules so China is no different than us and that investing in any other country that has look loo quiddity and the right kind of markets whether they go up or down will you know we'll be there there's no good reason not to be in China and there's a special appeal because you know I know well and I've been there for a long time and I also wanted to ask you me we've had unprecedented central bank stimulus that has helped push stocks to record highs yet we've recently been given signals from the Fed the European Central Bank and the Bank of England that that stimulus is set to pull back a bit what would waning central bank stimulus mean for stocks in your view I did a 30 minute video on how the economic machine works in the same situations it works the same way over and over again and so where we are in that that provides a context is where by and large in the middle part of our economic cycles in which the printing of money or the is coming to an end and and it's an end of that part of the cycle as a result of that we are not going to have the the long the interest rates go down further we are not going to have the risk premiums shrink further we are going to be in a situation where we're not going to have a material tightening but we're going to have a situation in which we the 2008 to now period is ended and the key in this period is to be very very cautious about tightening and so I think you're going to see central banks very very very cautious or hardly at all doing tightening and so it you'll you'll lose the pushing up but you probably won't get the moves that would be the knocking down of those kinds of markets from this point forward it's going to mean what is the actual change in profitability for the most part so it's not going to be interest rates it's not going to be risk premiums changing much it's going to be what the actual movement to the bottom line is so that's why tax reform is is an issue their tax rate that corporations pay is going to be an issue if you take the stimulation what will it mean when you have deregulation deregulation is on the margin a stimulant so you're gonna have certain amounts of stimulants in there not much stimulants so it's not going to make a big difference I don't believe from this part forward I think what's going to make a bigger difference is the situation in terms of the two-tiered economy in other words from this this large percentage of the occur there was really two economies there more than that but think of it as two economies they're the and averages are totally misleading the top one-tenth of one percent of the population snap worth is equal to the bottom 90% combined and that's becoming an issue and so how that issue is dealt with it is going to be you know an important driver and how conflict is dealt with it's not just a conflict between those groups it's conflicts and ideology conflicts internationally I think that this issue of politics and conflicts will be an important one I'm pleased that we're having more of a capitalist approach to this than a socialist approach to dealing with this issue I think that that's a relief and I'm relatively pleased also that what I was seeing as up until recently a lot of conflict little signs of working in a bipartisan way to get past some of those conflicts in order to deal with some of those issues together so that's it in a nutshell now right in the book you talk about how you love and have benefited from artificial intelligence but you also talked about the importance of the people behind those computers what's your take on artificial intelligence in terms of what it means for Wall Street jobs and the broader global economy I've learned over the last 20 years to take that decision-making can be put into algorithms in other words the process was come up with a principle of what you would do in a certain set of circumstances right those criteria down and then convert those principles into algorithms and then I learned that the the computer operating in parallel with me was extremely powerful that's how we make all of our investment decisions and that's also how we're making a lot of the people decisions and I know the fact that you're going to see this happen pervasively in other words algorithmic decision making are going to produce better decision-making and replace a lot of people and you're seeing this happen in many of the ways we execute orders and our transactions and so all that much much better decision-making many ways I also think that a big question is how do you come up with those algorithms in other words there is machine learning and if and the question is whether one has understanding behind those algorithms because I learned in the markets before that for a long time I've watched many firms go broke because they were doing this machine learning and algorithmic decision-making because they didn't have the understanding a deep understanding of the cause-effect relationships they bet that the things that happened in the past would happen in the future so I think that we're going to see a lot more of that I'm very excited about that it has implications in terms of employment and so on but it is also dangerous because if you have two rules for danger two red flags do you understand the criteria that are in those algorithms so that you can say oh that's logical and I buy into it or are you blindly following what the algorithms that have been determined by machine learning come if you're doing the first and if the physical future is different than it has been in the past because the past is what that those algorithms were based on if the futures that can be different from the past and you don't understand the deep logic you are probably going to blow up or have a problem with that and so I think that that's going to be an issue of our society going forward all rain the final couple of seconds here any advice for young people on how to get a job at Bridgewater obviously they should study your principles but any advice for young people the first and most important thing for anybody who's wants to get a job at Bridgewater is to find out whether you've got a great fit the emotional ways of you know this idea meritocratic process this idea of thoughtful disagreement to look into what it really is like I would recommend they take a look at the TED talk 16 minute TED talk and I and in that TED talk I basically lay out the picture of what the place is like in that 16 minute TED talk if that place sounds right for them then you know let us know and we'll work through it alright ray thank you so much for joining us I really appreciate it thanks God
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