저자: RayDalio · 한국인
요약 보기
AI 버블은 실재하나 더 큰 위기는 부채 누적, 사회 내부 갈등, 지정학(미중 패권 교체·이란 분쟁)이 겹치는 것이라고 주장. 버블 붕괴 시 유동성 강제 매도가 자산가격 연쇄 폭락을 부르며, AI 충격은 붕괴 후 대량 실업으로 체감될 것이라 봄. 개인 대응으로 시점 예측 대신 현금 과신을 경계하고 금 5~15% 등 분산투자 권고. 과거 1929 사례와 500년 제국 주기 데이터를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Are you seeing signs that were in an AI bubble and therefore an economic collapse? The classic signs and that has implications for the economy and it's bad for the society and everybody loses money. But we also have some other things that are going on that happen around the same time. I can go through these if you want.
So what I'm saying is clear because I'm a global macro investor and you one of the few managers to fore the great financial crisis. Yes. And so right now we're very excited about AI and we should be very excited buuse it's going to be revolutionary changes but it's creeping into almost everything. The way I look at it is I look at the human body and I see like it's replacing the body and so on and then it replaces some aspects of the mind levels of thinking and reasoning.
But at the same time we have another problem that's existing geolitics I mean China is a larger trading partner with most countries and the United States and that's a changing of the world order that is one of the ingredients, right? And then also you got large wealth gaps. The government don't have enough money.
And so when you have the downturn, then you have people at each other's throats. So a lot of people they're thinking about how to sort of secure their future. How do they all prepare? Try to concentrate for just 10 minutes starting now. In this 1 hour and 30 minute interview, I will summarize the key points regarding the AI bubble and financial collapse that you need to know to protect your account .
The interview begins by quoting a warning from legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham . I am saying that the US stock market is currently the largest investment bubble in history and has reached its peak . Ray Dalio's answer to this is very short and clear. He is right. Wait, then should I sell all my stocks right away ?
Dalio emphasizes looking at the causal relationship of why such a conclusion was reached, rather than the simple conclusion itself . Let's go over one important fact here. Bubbles are not a binary issue of whether they exist or not. It is a matter of degree. So, the right question we should be asking is not whether we are currently in a bubble, but how far along we are in the bubble cycle .
Shall we take a look at the bubble formation mechanism diagnosed by Daliu? First, a revolutionary technology that will truly change the world emerges. The public is convinced of the value of the technology and starts betting. Surprisingly, the public's initial judgment of is largely correct. The problem is that it definitely turns into madness, leading them to take on debt to place bets.
And at some point, you stop considering the price or value of assets altogether. That was exactly the case just before the Great Depression of 1929. Electricity was installed in the homes, and refrigerators and lights were brought in . Cars filled the streets and airplanes knew the sky. People firmly believed that a great future would come, and indeed, that belief was correct.
But why did the terrible collapse known as the Grand Duke come about? Actually, the technology wasn't wrong. This is because the actual profits generated by that technology simply could not keep up with the insanely skyrocketing stock price . There are also two major signs of risk that Daliu has detected in the market .
First, who is the owner of the money that has entered the market? Funds with shallow knowledge of the intrinsic value of companies have entered the market, specifically through loans to retail investors or leveraged products. You don't sell this kind of money because you want to when the market is down.
It is money that I cannot hold out for, which I am selling because I have to. The second is the supply of assets. He says there is almost nothing easier to make than this stock . When demand is high, companies continue to sell off shares and dump them on the market, whether through paid-in capital increases or whatever.
Then, what is the real needle that pops this expanded bubble ? Daliu believes that the nature of the arson tax is generally determined by a single factor. It is a forced situation where I must immediately sell my assets to generate cash. Usually, the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes or catastrophic tax system reforms play that role.
Let's calculate it very intuitively . One share of AI stock I bought becomes $100. My net worth is also recorded as $100. The bank lends $50 using this as collateral. But suddenly, as the macro environment explodes, all market participants need cash immediately . As everyone rushes to invest in the stock market, the stock price plummets to $25 in an instant.
My stock is now worth $25, but I still have $50 to pay to the bank. In an instant, I fell into a $25 deficit swamp, and to survive, I have to throw even my remaining stocks into the market . In fact, there is one very bone-chilling sentence here that Daliu constantly repeats . Min is not money. The only thing we can use right now at the supermarket is cash.
The assets we possess—that is, money— only become real money when we give them to someone. So, when the market turns downward, the snowball rolls in the exact opposite direction to when it goes up . If you dump assets to survive, prices will crash even further. People who have suffered losses naturally close their wallets and reduce their spending.
The revenue lost at the group restaurant I didn't visit becomes income lost to someone else. If we simply relied on asset laws, this would end up being just another common economic cycle . The reason Daliu is genuinely afraid of the current situation is that three massive crises are precisely overlapping in this one era .
First, it is uncontrollable debt. The government is empty, and the fiscal deficit has grown uncontrollably. The second is serious internal conflict. As extreme wealth inequality spreads into political polarization, social compromise like in the past has become impossible. The third is geopolitical risk.
The global order is maintained when a single dominant power proposes it, but when forces vying for hegemony emerge, it escalates beyond mere superficial disputes into physical conflict. Ray Dalio asserts that the collapse of massive hegemony is currently taking place right here in Iran . Currently, the U.S.
is unable to easily withdraw from the conflict with Iran . When asked how he views this situation, Dalio's answer was very short and clear. It was a big mistake. But the real price he is talking about is not just the cost of war. In fact, the essence of the hegemony that the United States has exercised all this time was not military power itself, but the threat.
We intervene. "We will open the strait." With just that one sentence, everything was settled, whether in Asia or the Middle East. There was no need to actually fight and shed blood. Now, however, that very US threat has been put to the serious test in Iran. Currently, American citizens are worried about soaring oil prices and absolutely do not want the sacrifice of the U.S.
military. I just hope this situation ends quickly. Dalio points out that they absolutely cannot fight a long-term battle in such a divided internal state . Actually, the most fatal problem occurs here. The whole world has noticed. That the United States does not have the will to endure a long war . A red light has been turned on for the empire's vulnerabilities that had been hidden until now .
At this very moment, the calculations in the minds of Asian countries completely change. China is the overwhelming hegemonic power in this region, and the remaining countries are effectively out of the question. So they believed that the United States would provide a balance, and they regarded having U.S.
military equipment on their land as a sure safety measure . First, let's look at an example given by Dalio . It is the Philippines. It is a country that has signed a NATO-level mutual defense treaty with the United States. The question Dalio poses here is this. If the U.S. were to say it would send a South Korean warship when China is putting strong pressure on the Philippines, would the American public really support that?
I mean, public opinion can't even tolerate a single situation like this. If you do not support it, that treaty becomes just a piece of scrap paper. Now, U.S. military bases are no longer a device that protects the country; instead, they end up only provoking China for no reason while failing to receive any actual protection .
Ultimately, it turns into a fatal liability rather than a solid asset . In this situation, China does not even need to directly mobilize its military. Now, let's take a look at Taiwan. The world's most advanced semiconductors pour out right from there . China will completely control semiconductor exports from Taiwan going forward.
Let's assume we declare it like this. Dalio warns that the global stock market will completely collapse at that very moment . I'm telling you that a terrible chain reaction is going to unfold that I don't even want to imagine. And he asks sharply back. What exactly can the U.S. actually do in that situation ?
He explains the current situation by likening it to Britain during the past Suez Canal crisis . Even the British themselves didn't know until the situation broke out. That their era had ended . It was only after going through that incident that I realized it painfully. In response to the question of whether the U.S.
threat no longer works, Dalio draws a weighty conclusion. It is not that it does n't work, but that power no longer exists. To summarize, it is a phenomenon where three massive axes—debt, internal conflict, and geopolitical risk— collapse simultaneously. Dalio calls this the Big Cycle. After analyzing 500 years of Black Empire data from numerous empires, we found that the average cycle is 80 years.
Most recently, there was a moment of reset where everything was completely initialized. It was right after World War II in 1945. Then, where are we in that 80-year cycle now? According to Dalio's diagnosis, Western countries, including the United States, have already entered the latter part of the cycle— that is, the clear phase of the times.
However, you must absolutely not misunderstand here . The important thing is not which year it explodes. Just as the average human lifespan is 80 years but varies depending on an individual's health condition, the same applies to the lifespan of a nation . You should look at the condition, not the date of the training.
Check out macro data firsthand, such as the level of national debt, the education level of the population, and the competitiveness of industries . Then, will AI really take away my livelihood? Dalliu explains cause and effect by completely reversing them. The most brutal destruction of the job market is not technological advancement, but the collapse of the bubble itself.
The moment the bubble bursts, companies immediately enter survival mode. We are halting investments for the future and entering into ruthless workforce reductions to protect cash . Mass unemployment erupts here . And beneath the surface, a structural change in which machines replace humans is slowly taking place over a much longer period.
It is the exact same pattern as when tractors displaced dozens of farm workers during the Industrial Revolution. The real horror is that these two things are striking at the same time . Furthermore, the speed of change itself is different. The scale of capital currently being poured into developing the frontier AA model is on a completely different level compared to the past when Ford factories mass- produced tractors or cars .
So, what should I do right now to protect my account ? In response to this, the first thing Dalio came up with was timing prediction. Even elite institutional investors on Wall Street cannot accurately predict when a bubble will burst . The second thing I strongly warned against was blind faith in cash.
Most people feel that holding only cash is the safest option because they are afraid of a market crash . Actually, that is absolutely not the case. As of the time of the interview, the U.S. inflation rate is between 3.5% and 4% per year. Bank deposit interest is also that same thing. After deducting interest income tax, the real rate of return is a complete negative.
Cash becomes trash that sits there and melts away . In the end, the answer is simply a very classic, yet most powerful, diversified investment. The prices of assets such as cash, stocks, bonds, gold, and real estate move for completely different macroeconomic reasons . When one gets destroyed, the other defends my account.
Do not forget that stocks are a very dangerous asset that can be painfully crushed by 60 to 70% from their peak when entering a bear market. Emphasizing the characteristic of gold that central banks cannot print at will, Dalio advises general investors to fill 5 to 15% of their total portfolio with gold.
I will also be honest about Bitcoin . You're saying it accounts for about 1% of your total assets . I clearly acknowledge the advantage that Bitcoin, like gold, has a limited supply . However, it accurately pointed out the limitations, such as the risk of being threatened by technological advancements and the possibility that the government could eventually establish a tracking system and bring it into the taxation net.
Finally, Dalio confesses a painful past experience of his . It is said that during the time when he was struggling financially with not a single penny, he calculated only this one number every night of the month . If my income were to become permanent tomorrow, exactly how many months could my family and I survive on the money I was earning ?
This survival rate is the process of the number of generations increasing from a few months to a few years. That was the true meaning of safety that he defined. Tonight, you too can open your own account and calculate it right away . If your salary or business income were cut off right now, how many months would your survival mileage be?
And is that hard-earned money entirely invested in a single asset that could be cut in half in an instant ? M.
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