저자: JackSpencer—출연자소속미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 최근 몇 달간 항공주를 전량 매도하고 은행주 등 여러 종목 지분을 줄였다는 점을 근거로, 다음 시장 폭락 가능성을 시사하는 영상. 결론: 버핏의 최근 매도 패턴은 시장 폭락을 예상하는 신호로 해석되며, 시장 전망은 불확실하다고 정리. 버핏의 항공주 전량 매도: 코로나19로 인한 펀더멘털 변화를 이유로 항공주를 전부 팔았다고 설명. 버핏은 보통 지분을 전량 정리하며, 현금 여력이 충분한데도 매도한 것은 이례적이라고 봄. 은행주 매도: 버크셔가 골드만삭스 지분 84%를 매도, JP모건·웰스파고·US뱅코프·뱅크오브아메리카 지분도 축소. 버핏이 은행 지분 10% 이상 보유를 피하려는 목적(은행 지배 간주 기준)이 일부 원인일 수 있다고 언급. 모순되는 신호: 버핏은 은행이 장기적으로 매력적이라고 말하면서도 대량 매도. PNC 금융 지분은 6% 늘렸다고 언급. 시장 상황: S&P500과 나스닥이 신고가 근처이며, 연준의 금리 인하와 양적 공급이 시장을 떠받치는 중이라고 설명. 다만 실물 경제 펀더멘털 변화는 장기간 지속될 수 있다고 봄. 시장 폭락 가능성: 버핏이 현재 매도 중이므로 폭락을 예상하는 것으로 보인다고 주장. 다만 S&P500은 최고점 대비 약 8% 하락 수준이라 공포 정도는 제한적이라고 평가. 버핏의 재매수 시점: 백신 등으로 세상이 정상화되는 시점에 다시 대규모 투자할 것으로 추측. 출연자 전망: 버핏의 의도는 추측일 뿐이며, 시장 전체가 불확실하다는 입장을 반복. 시청자 참여 요청: 좋아요와 구독, 댓글을 요청.
다듬은 글
is Warren Buffett predicting the next stock market crash what is happening in investors it is your boy Jack I am NOT a financial advisor and today we're going to be speaking all about Warren Buffett and what he's been up to the last couple of months this is the man of the moment mr. Warren Buffett one of the greatest investors of all time who was significantly outperformed a broader market throughout his whole history now with the man is 89 years old and the question has to be asked has he lost his touch this was the man who said one of my absolute favorite quotes in the world to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful and over the last few months he has not stuck to his own word but we will be getting to that later over the last couple of months Warren Buffett has completely sold out of several company and trimmed his positions in many many more everybody knows at this stage that he sold all of his positions in the US airline companies retail traders on the other hand the likes of you and me your everyday person have been making loads of money well these billionaires like mr.
Buffett have been losing out take a look at a few of these statistics from Robin Hood for me there are so many new investors on the platform their trade and volumes went up over 300% over the last few months here are some of the most popular companies on the Robin hobb platform I mean what an guys look at hurts hurts is a company who literally filed for bankruptcy and had their stock price rise up well over 500% as a result that is the stock market world we live in today will the multi-billionaires the hedge fund managers the hedge fund analysts have all been selling stocks and not picking off any new positions retail traders have been buying bankrupt companies I'm making loads of money is value and recent data is literally day trading bankrupt companies the new way to make a fortune to hedge fund managers and analysts have it all wrong or is it us retail investors who have everything all wrong today we're going to be speaking about all of that about what Warren Buffett has been doing and why it is quite scary as an investor because right now all is well and good the S&P 500 is approaching its all-time highs the Nasdaq has made new all-time highs the worst news in the world can lead to a Green Day for whatever reason Jay Powell's printers are absolutely off the charts right now and keeping the market alive McCann of this last forever or is another crash like Warren Buffet expects to happen inevitable quite a few things I want the convert-a-ball what you can expect to be spoken about in today's video is his airline stock positions his bank stock positions every single stock we know that he has sold thus far the one stock that he has gone ahead and bought and when I think Buffett may decide to go ahead and start buying stocks again so right before we get into the juicy information can I ask you to please smash alike on the video if we get 500 likes I guarantee you Jay Powell will keep the money printer going and you will make loads of money if you're new around here please hit the subscribe button we are trying to get to 10,000 subs ASAP i lastly drop me a comment down below with your thoughts with all that being said let's get into the info so we're gonna start it off in regards to airline stocks okay and Warren Buffett says that folks are sold all of its airline stocks because of the Dodi Rowling virus now in the past Warren Buffett I said that there's two main reasons he will go ahead and sell a company the first is when he feels that budget needs the money for a more attractive opportunity so you know if they don't have enough cash if they see a better opportunity in the market they'll sell one company to get a better company but as of right now Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has a record 137 billion dollar cash boil so we can assume that he's not selling because he needs the cash that is quite clear to see now the second and more common reason that Warren Buffett decides to sell a stock okay it's because of changing fundamentals or a change in competitive landscape so in regards to Airlines it was definitely because of changing fundamentals now this is something we're gonna have to keep in mind literally for the entire video because you're all aware of what's going on in the world and I think that everybody is aware of the fact that the fundamentals for an awful lot of different companies and different industries will be changed for a considerable period of time so ye in particular was at the airline stock seesaw why hasn't he sold absolutely everything so obviously Airlines fundamentals have changed you know they're not gonna be able to fly at full capacity for a while who knows if it's gonna be one year two years three years who knows if it's never going to be the same there will be changes no matter what but what about the likes of Apple okay his single biggest investment by an absolute mile inside your phone city the massive Chinese factory town where half of the world's iPhones are produced it employs as many as 350,000 people and I spawned a mini CD that residents have taken to calling iPhone city this is what the inside of an apple factory or any other factory for that matter it looks like it's social distance implemented right now know the fundamentals nearly every company on this planet are going to change it that's something that's gonna have to be accepted Airlines may not be able to take 100% of passengers factories like this won't be able to hold 100 percent of employees now you might think I'm trying to close at straws here or whatever but it's true it really is true no I'm not saying that it should serve Apple they're obviously in a much better much safer position than any of the airline companies and I'm sure the balance sheets and the date of these Airlines were also a contributing factor it wasn't just the fact that they're passing your loads I'm going to be as high for a year or two but it is just something I wanted to get out there that the fundamentals for everyone is going to change and here's something else okay when we sell something very often it's going to be our entire stake we don't trim positions and this is gonna tell you us very nicely on to bank stocks as of the end of last year Berkshire Hathaway is most heavily invested in the financial sector at 38% of their total portfolio the second biggest is 26% in tech and a large portion of that will come from Apple and then 15% is in consumer defensive so nearly 40% as of the end of last year in the financial sector alone I think everybody knows that Warren Buffett absolutely loves bank stocks and he always has and he said things along the lines been off betting on banks is like betting on the long-term success of America so to see the man who says things like that begin to sell massive portions of his bank stocks it has to be worrying Warren Buffett through Berkshire Hathaway has divested 84% of his holding in Goldman Sachs I'm sure you've all heard about this one they also sold 3% of their share in JPMorgan Chase they sold fifty five point two million shares of Wells Fargo in the fourth quarter of last year reducing its investment in the embattled bank to three hundred and twenty three point two million shares or a decent chunk of Wells Fargo they sold as well but remember what he said before in general when he sells a company he says the entire stick so why is he trimming why did he sell 84% of goldman sachs it doesn't make a lot of sense he's also sold nearly 500,000 shares in US Bancorp eight hundred and sixty nine thousand shares in Bank of New York Mellon and 2.2 4 million shares in Bank of America now both Wells Fargo and Bank America Board of these happened the end of last year and a lot of the reason we think we've seen this okay is because he doesn't want to have a larger than 10 percent stake in these bank stocks reason being if you are over that 10 percent mark which not many people are everyone to do but somebody like Warren Buffett could do it could be classified as a bank hole and company this 10% threshold is often viewed as a line in the sand whereby Berkshire Hathaway is perceived to exercise control over a bank so he wants to keep below 10% so Bank of America fairness he needed a trimmers position to get down below 10% and he might well need to trim it again soon Wells Fargo he's now considerably down below 10% so we'll see what happens if they get a good rally again though he may well have to sell US Bancorp he is just barely below that 10% mark now JP Morgan and chase this is a weird one and the two most concerning stocks that he did sell in my opinion i JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs he only has not even a two percent stake in JPM an article that was literally from January 3rd 2020 why Warren Buffett loves JPMorgan Chase stock he suggested that JPM are the trade for three times tangible book value which at the time of his comments would have employed a price of about one hundred and sixty-eight dollars against a market price they another about one hundred and five dollars I was off right now APM's ninety six point seven five it's probably gonna open somewhere around the 98 and 99 dollar range buying stock fundamentals undoubtably have changed in march 2020 the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero in order to provide additional support to the US economy for banks which are among the biggest beneficiaries of rising interest rates this was very bad news obviously but the thing is if Buffett taught the fundamentals had really really really changed he would have sold everything like he did with Airlines so to me there's a lot of concern with Goldman Sachs I wouldn't really consider them as of right now seeing just how much he sold but maybe he just wants to free up some extra cash to come either he thinks has a lot more room to go down further and he just wants to buy up a lot of shares cheaper I mean I know as I said at the start of the video everything the market is fantastic right now but it could all go upside down at any time what if the money printer stops working as of late I've just seen several contradictions in what Warren Buffett is saying what he has said and what he is doing and what he has done it's kind of all over the place a little bit but from what we can see him doing he definitely expects a market crash if he didn't he would be buying stocks right now he wouldn't be slashing so many positions now I want to speak about the 21 stocks that Warren Buffett has sold sulfur and let's keep in mind he's not selling these because he needs cash he's selling them because he thinks the fundamentals have changed and more of the likely because he thinks a crash is coming General Motors fire stop he only decreased his holding by 0.4% nothing crazy song core energy again only decreased by 0.5% Amazon this very interest wants me there literally at all-time highs now we did only sell 0.7% of these guys compared to that fourth quarter of last year but still it is odd I'm not sure why he's doing this again it goes against what he said in the past Liberty's Sirius XM grouper company I've literally never even heard of reduced a stake by 0.8% AK Salter coding systems again point eight-percent Biogen again point eight percent have a pharmaceutical 1% very sane 1% the Vita 1% Liberty global 2% Liberty Latin America 3% synchrony financial another financial company 3% trim JPMorgan Chase we already know about these guys and again that was a 3% code goldman sachs 84 percent write a company called travelers he completely exited his position and interestingly he also completely sold out of his position in phillips 66 and this doesn't mean the song core an Occidental Petroleum oxy you probably all know who they are are the only energy sector stocks left in the portfolio very interesting and then obviously he went and he sold all of his airline stocks I just mean it's weird guys it really is weird and the thing is guys if you go onto YouTube and you search up something like Warren Buffett bank stocks okay Warren Buffett banks are very attractive compared to most other securities three months ago Warren Buffett America's banks are in good shape now one month ago legendary investor Warren Buffett hasn't given up on banks one month ago so much contradiction out there and they just add a little bit more contradiction to the list okay the only complete mr.
Buffett has actually gone ahead and purchased is PNC Financial Services and he up his stake by 6 percent in this company and these are a regional bank so they are a bank probably could tell that by the picture that says PNC Bank and they are the nation's sixth largest bank by assets or than all guys it's all just so weird to be honest which I'm trying to make sense of it and it's very difficult to do so as I said there's so much conflicting information and the last thing of today is when do I think that Warren Buffett will be willing to buy companies again this is a really tough phone for me okay we said the quote earlier on be fearful when I greedy and be greedy when others are fearful I don't know there's not been a time in my life maybe the Great Recession where people haven't been as fearful as we were here I mean the whole world literally went in to lock them the whole world went into a meltdown people couldn't leave the house because they were afraid for their lives they were literally afraid for their lives it doesn't get much scarier than that and Warren Buffett wasn't willing to be here you know what I mean what people were more fearful than ever now you could say people are being greedy you know a lot of people myself included are still buying stocks despite the fact that we understand that you know things could go south so is he going to be fearful when people are greedy and fearful when people are fearful and just never go ahead and buy stocks again that doesn't seem like the case the thing is guys okay there's a lot more pressure on Warren Buffett then there is our mere you okay if I invest into the stock market and the stock market goes down 50% I've just lost some money and I believe that it will come back at some stage even if it is years down the line and I'm investing in significant amounts of money in the grand scheme of things I don't have the billions and billions and billions of dollars that Warren Buffett has to invest and I don't own a holding company with a market cap of four hundred and thirty eight point seven seven billion with lots of people depending on me a lot more goes on behind the scenes with a man like Warren Buffett investing than your average person what he does will directly impact many many people and their well-being and their wealth maybe he's just sitting back and he's thinking you know what I've made all of this money I've had a fantastic career I don't need to mess with this I've caught enough problems in my days I've made enough correct collars in my days I don't need to deal with this for a little while from a logistical point of view a second crash is completely and utterly inevitable I mean if it wasn't for this fella the bagger crash would have happened already simply put I mean the SP is only down about eight percent from its recent highs it's been down as low as four point five percent it does not make any sense consider in the world we live in the fundamentals of the world have changed if I had to guess whether I believe Warren Buffett will start investing considerable amounts of money again it'll be when the world is largely back to normal you know maybe we'll have a vaccine airplanes will be at full capacity the cruise ships will be gone again there'll be big massive raves full of people Hogan and Kissin and throw around beach balls and nobody will have to worry about contracting a deadly from what I've seen from Warren Buffett is that's what he wants to see before he begins heavily investing again but right now I really don't think anybody knows what's going on in his head I mean guys nothing makes sense right now the world doesn't make sense the stock market doesn't make sense Warren Buffett doesn't make sense Ray Dalio doesn't make sense nothing makes sense so guys that is it for today's video if you did watch it all the way until the end can I please ask you to drop me a comment down below just let me know your thoughts and let me know what you think of the whole situation because at the end of the day a lot of it is complete and utter speculation we're just trying to guess what's going on in this one great investors head and please also smash the like button if you did watch all the way to the end it genuinely helps me absolutely massively appreciate you so much and subscribe if you're new around here we post every single day baby with all that being said hope you have an absolutely fantastic day I will see you tomorrow peace
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