저자: Gregory · 외국인
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나스닥이 보라색 채널 하단 지지를 받아 반등 가능성이 크며, 9월 초 비농업고용·실업률 발표가 시장 방향을 가를 변수라는 주장. 달러는 기술적으로 반등 신호가 있고 자금이 미국으로 돌아올 수 있다고 봄. 주식 선정은 피터 린치의 GARP(성장 대비 적정 가치) 모델을 소개하며, PER 15~25배, 향후 성장률 10~25% 조건으로 스크리닝하는 방법을 시연함. 개별 종목으로는 엔비디아(약 936달러 하락 시 손절/매수 고려, 900달러 부근이면 매수)와 구글(900달러 부근 밸류에이션 매력 언급)을 거론하고, 구글 목표가는 약 1970달러로 제시함. 리스크: 다음 사이클은 경기침체일 수 있으며, 채널 이탈 시 하락 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
hello guys welcome to September first which is the first day of the new month so today we'll talk about the Nasdaq and what stops to rebuy tonight probably tonight first of all if you have been subscribed channel please subscribe saw and also like my Facebook page if you can also like and share this video to your friends that would be pretty much a crazy make appreciate it so then talk about the Nasdaq right now and then we'll sort of talk about one of the stock picking model or method that has been is pretty famous outside so first of all if we you've you remember what I talked about in the previous videos that the Nasdaq should be a you just buy it the the Nasdaq could be can are completely bounded from below about the purple channel then that should be good by the by so that is that and with that being said you can see the purple channel is has been drawn before all this happens ok is as Neutron peep are at from these two points so this is the first point the second second point and the third point I'll just funny here right this is something that we can we could draw back from one year and more okay so this is the channel the things that happen behind is a proof it's an evidence that people the market is looking after using this channel as a big huge breakfast okay so in the end in the end in the summer and the June July and August you see there's a 3 a 3 attend stat the stock market the nest and who was trying to get back inside her boot channel but every time it felt and rebounded so we'll say that this time could be really the highest chance that the NASA could going back into the channel right no then in the end we say that yeah you can because of this bearish candlestick you can't just pick it yourself of all the stocks that side but Astana's the market has the consensus and the dance that will be rebounded back about the channel that's the time he should buy the stocks again so which means that after the three really strong myself came up in the previous three days today is the Friday and it shows that if that's a strong rebound then the nest that will hit historic height again so the pic is six hundred six thousand four hundred fifty nine point seven six which it won't it won't be the peak again so then if the market has the consensus now the announcement not something that we should do is the non-farm ratio and in an in front and rate that would be announced in the in the US time 838 Oakland calculator it that is really a fake hints that better and not defend going to raise interest rate in the September and also send a mouse tone for people to be for the market to be kind of calmed optimistic or pessimistic about the whole September thing such as the Evelyn's meeting and also to Germany presidential election stuff and so what should we buy so first of all with to look at the pocket if the non-farm ratio if dolphin data rupee is doing good it should be more than around if that's good info has is now 180 K and that's above 180 K that should be fine because the ADP loan fund which is now on Wednesday was pretty good already so then you will see that US dollar what we found we'll get while we found tonight and then the stock market will also be bounced so the US dollar is pretty pretty bad right now but in terms of technical analysis and train the analysis you will say that trains do point down right but as as something as there some some you can always lead ahead to guess if they were started we bout now the Technic technically is pretty strong there's a sign that u.s.
dollar GU will rebound then money we're flowing back will be flowing back to the United State and you just need one big solid data which is the normal ratio and unemployment rate then will be announced today okay so if I say tonight that excuse me because I mean Asia so I mean in that instant I'm - today in the Asian and that's tonight okay so so what should we buy we cannot get the guard guard model which I'm going to talk about in Hong Kong tonight which is invented by Peter Lynch and he just used car model and Petrie model and keep on comin outperforming the index so we'll see that we will talk about this model so first of all the p/e should be not as know as possible not you can be as high as possible it should be around 15 times 225 times and also the growth of next series is expected to be around 10 to 25% if that's possible wound I will one that the p/e ratio should be nowhere did it broke are the the expected growth so you can use this website to kind of to kind of show that what we should fight right now so we can now the thing this is not working right now okay this is working we can you spin this which is the not the best screen are not the best screener out there but ah it does this in this job so fundamentally you can choose the time you go to fundamental you go to screener in the manhole and look at the PE not for PE is to pee now so because it cannot say you cannot search for range you can say you should do it under because the P is nowhere better right so anything under 25 okay and then for the growth this year should be more than 10% right I will check a public in ten ten to twenty five percent ten percent and then after the screening you can check it manually okay so that's it nine hundred and sixty seven stops that is within this range so that you can also make it tighter you can make it to the lower inch like under 20 and then growth is for the fifteen percent that's it so he doesn't with this model this is really want the PE to be as too high but an a too low or the Chitauri the growth this year not to be too too high you can also click it like this by by this by to narrow down daily the result you can also click them ear after it should be also over fifty percent so later on that can make you a video I would make the prediction and consensus right but uh right now we can the first homework is to get familiar with the financial model out of that the market is doing good I was at this cash and while piping spices and by that just just only a guessing game so now you can sort by let's say the Mucky cap that is the safest way to do and then the same drinks which you know the Excel you can do something that you can search this this out if these stops right now so this is the same more like simple model that you can search for a stock that has been doing pretty cute that may be doing pretty good if you think that you want to narrow more press you can select under 15 so centric is still here and exco is still here so you can do this all day long ah and then you can view it down to only time team starts to choose from so if you want more like that I could talk about but also P gene are in the three videos in futures or you can are we can talk about tennis team or how people will tell you around with the financial reports that make the financial reform look nice but right now as of right now is sort of adding a feeling we need any more models so that you can more or less the market is doing good but you can more let's try to outperform the market after you want to outperform the market right if not let's just buy an e yeah so for me I would say that some few of these toxic you can avert an asan is pretty big doing the rebound is very very strong if you want to cut loss in short-term you can use these two gaps and they fill the gap you can callous but it for big to longer-term run I suggest you to wait for the stuff to do great below this lowest point which is $936 then to loss but I think the is 4000 dropping back to nan enjoyed which I talked about in the previous video if that goes if this going back to $900 I buy it and also Google right because the penalty and define is already reflected in stock prices if it goes goes down to $900 the valuation wise is pretty good again you see the gap and you see the W double top the pattern the Black Knight is pretty solid I would say um the worst case it can get is here this this year but seems like if that's the marketing sense right seems like it is not because there's a triple bottom that is the market is not pushing us down as we think so now it going back up and there's a channel here and the targeted targeted the calculated target should be around 1970 okay so it I saw this you have your your targets ready your spots ready then only thing is the market if the non-primary time data and the Sabich is doing good money is going coming back to you desk that shouldn't be a problem so that's basically a really hardcore technical update but something that we should be investing because in the full market that there's only one to two years them with four market that's really really time for us to really think about what kind portfolio stocks or how safe anything that we should invest in right now to alphaf on the market because the next cycle is recession the fair market so leave me comments below so I can answer any and almost any of the if your investment products are ten movies and music right because I can also do music and basketball but uh anything that can you can leave me a comment please souls in love through through pressing like and also share this video to your friends so I will see you next time investing may easy goodbye
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