Get ready to buy Alibaba…Charlie Munger was buying! Just wait a few days though

요약 보기

알리바바는 지금 저평가 구간이라 매수 적기다. 다만 2월 24일 실적 발표 전까지는 기다려야 하며, 실적 결과에 따라 상승 또는 추가 하락 시나리오가 갈린다. 주가 하락 원인: 중국 정부의 반독점·데이터 규제와 분기 EPS 컨센서스 대폭 하회(1분기 85%, 2분기 89% 미달)가 주된 요인. 찰리 멍거가 2021년 이후 지분을 4배 늘린 점도 언급. 주요 이벤트: 공동부유(common prosperity) 기부 155억 달러(5년 분할)는 불확실성 해소 측면에서 오히려 긍정적이라고 평가. 실적에서 매출 성장률 가이던스가 30%에서 20~23%로 하향. 디디(DiDi) 상장폐지 사례는 알리바바에는 적용되기 어렵다고 봄. 밸류에이션: PER 약 17배, PSR 약 2.6배. 아마존 PER 64배 대비 1/4 수준이며 성장률은 비슷(20~23%)하다고 비교. 리스크 4가지: ① 중국 규제(최근 과징금 28억 달러는 규모 대비 작다고 판단), ② 중국 정부의 미국 상장 강제 폐지 가능성(낮다고 봄, 중국 당국이 VIE 구조 상장 막을 의도 없다고 언급), ③ 미국 정부의 상장폐지 압박(지정학적 긴장으로 중간 수준 가능성, 단기 급락 시 매수 기회로 봄), ④ 매출 둔화(중국 소매 성장 둔화, 마케팅 예산 감소, 매출의 63%에 영향). 투자 견해: 순수 성장주에서 가치주 관점으로 전환 필요. 애널리스트 56명 중 매도는 1명, 매수 42명, 평균 목표가 약 188달러 대비 현재 주가 약 123달러로 최소 35% 상승 여지. 향후 1~2년은 35% 이상 상승도 기대. 전쟁·정부 개입 등 극단적 시나리오는 제외하고 논의.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hold on hold on just don't buy it yet we still need to wait a few days hey guys it's eric from hong kong based in germany i've been fasting since i'm 17 years old for almost 20 years i want to give you guys alternative perspective about investment as well as in personal finance today i want to talk about why it is time to get ready and buy alibaba alibaba's share price went down more than 50 since i told you guys to get rid of it in march 2021 however charlie munger actually start to collect alibaba in fact he increased the share 4 times since 2021 so is it time to buy alibaba first of all we must look at the reasons behind of the collapse of the share price there are two main reasons the first reason was of course to crack down by the chinese government about its anti-competitive behaviors and data privacy the second one is about missing expectations but before i go into missing expectations i must explain something to you guys it's about the fiscal year or financial year for alibaba they follow the british system so it starts on the first of april as quarter one so going forward whenever i say quarter one is actually april until the end of june which is roughly equal to second quarter of calendar year i know it's pretty confusing you will be used to that the second reason of the collapse of share price as i mentioned is because they missed the expectations from the analysts and the market they missed the expectation by 85 percent for earnings per share in quarter one and a whopping 89 miss of eps in quarter 2 financial year no wonder the share price collapsed since china mongol doubled its share in quarter 3 last year and then doubled again in quarter 4.

02. let's look at what are the major events that happened to alibaba during this time and whether the situation has improved there are three major events happened during this period of time the first one was common prosperity if you haven't heard about it check out my video above or in the description below basically alibaba pledged to donate 15.5 billion us dollars on the courses around common prosperity luckily it was over five years by all means it is not a small amount of money but given the size of alibaba and is over five years it's actually not too bad in fact it could be positive that it alleviate the uncertainty around common prosperity so that alibaba doesn't need to worry about that they need to pay something else to the government because it's fixed and they know how much they are the second event is of course the results from the financial year quarter two basically quarter three from last year um of course as mentioned the eps the earnings per share was much much much lower than expectations but worse was that the sales growth outlook went down from 30 percent to 20 to 23 which is a huge drop in terms of proportion but if you look at the growth rate of 20 to 23 percent compared with the year before by all means this is not a slow growth third event of course is the infamous the listing of dd if you haven't heard about it just check out the videos in my channel i have a number of videos about dd's ipo and also the listing anyways the listing of the chinese company is a big concern because alibaba and other chinese companies listed in the us might suffer the same fate right but i think that the risk of being delisted is not that high i'll explain later in the section about risks all these three events are negative of course but the impacts are relatively short term some of them actually help to alleviate the uncertainty or if you talk about the growth rate the growth is still pretty strong right but having said that it doesn't mean that we need to jump in and buy now we still need to look at the fundamentals of course if we look at the fundamentals the price to earnings ratio is around 17.

03. the price to sales ratio is around 2.6 in comparison amazon's price to earnings ratio is 64 which is roughly 4 times higher than alibaba and the price to sales ratio is 3.6 interestingly the growth rate is roughly the same the growth rate from amazon last year was 22 and of course as i mentioned the expected growth rate of alibaba is 20 to 23 percent that means alibaba has similar growth rate as amazon but the p e ratio price to earnings ratio is only one-fourth of it this is really good value for money the fundamentals sound good right how about the risks i identified four main risks the first one is regulatory risk in china especially on anti-competitive behaviors but they will already find 2.8 billion dollars a record in the world and even with that sum of money it's not that big compared with size so it is extremely unlikely that there will be any higher fines that will affect alibaba that much let alone that the worst case scenario of breaking it up did not happen more importantly is that jagma already reappeared that means they have already reached a deal with the chinese government and is not going to get any more worse the second risk is that whether the chinese government would force alibaba to delist from the u.s this risk is also relatively low yes didi was being forced to delist but the situation was different dda was defined the order from the chinese government and went on ipo in the u.s anyways but even the regulator in china said that they had no intention to stop companies using vie structure to list in the u.s at least for the existing companies you need to understand that that means a 2 trillion dollars capital raised in the u.s among 200 and so chinese companies so they are not going to give up this 2 trillion capital raise so easily the third risk is whether the u.s government would force alibaba and other chinese companies to delist i mean the chance is medium because of geopolitical tension but to be honest i would see this as a buying opportunity of course in the very short term the share price will drop a lot if you already have to share i would recommend you to you know cut loss due to this situation but i would certainly buy in because the fundamentals would be the same i mean more than 90 of alibaba's business is in china anyways the listing would not affect it too much and you can still buy it on hong kong stock exchange or through your broker in the us otc the fourth risk is about the slowing sales growth they already reduced the price in january because of the macroeconomic situation and then also you see a slowing of retail sales growth in china overall this would of course affect the commission they can charge on their e-commerce platforms secondly the marketing budget of chinese companies are also going down well they also rely alibaba rely a lot on marketing on their platforms so of course this will have a hit on their revenue we're talking about 63 percent of its revenue so this is a big part of their business so what's my take on alibaba i think we need to change our perspective a little bit from a pure growth stock which just selling the growth story to now buying it because of its value this is undervalued if you look at p e ratio is almost only one-fourth of that of amazon while the growth rate is similar and it's high growth we're talking about 20 percent let alone that most of the analysts we're talking about 56 analysts that did research on alibaba only one of them are telling us to sell in fact 42 of them asked us to buy which is quite crazy right the average price is target around 188 hundred dollars at the moment the stock price is roughly 123 hundred dollars so you can see at least a 35 percent increase but i personally think that in coming one or two years it would be much much more than 35 percent hold on hold on just don't buy it yet we still need to wait a few days on the 24th of february they're going to announce their fiscal year third quarter results so basically the fourth quarter result from last year i'm expecting two scenarios it will either beat expectations and the stock price will rally the other case is that of course it would be below expectation the share price would drop further i can imagine drop a lot but i will start to collect the share from alibaba because i think this is already undervalued of course we are talking about excluding some factors we cannot assume in the coming one two years if there's a world war three or the chinese government decided that they need to find alibaba even a record sum of money or breaking it down but i think that later is very unlikely so are you guys going to get ready and buy alibaba after 24th of february leave me in the comments below if you like the video remember like share and subscribe this would be important motivation for me to continue even better clicking the bell button next to subscribe button so that you're not going to miss out my future analysis