저자: 짐크래머 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 코스트코는 최고 품질 기업이므로 번스타인의 투자의견 하향(Underperform)에 따른 주가 하락을 매수 기회로 봐야 한다는 주장. 번스타인 하향 근거 정리: 회사가 점포당 회원 수와 회원당 매출의 정점(saturation)에 가까워졌고, 경기 둔화 시 코스트코 수혜 가능성을 언급하는 등 촉매는 모호하게 제시했으며, 경쟁 심화와 중국 확장 부진 가능성을 들었다. 밸류에이션 차트상 역사적 대비 고평가라는 점도 근거로 제시됨. 크래머의 반박: 코스트코는 스스로 변신해 온 최고 수준 소매업체이며 자체 브랜드·온라인(옴니채널) 대응 등 통제력이 있다. 중국 상하이 매장은 개장 직후 혼잡으로 조기 마감할 정도로 수요가 강했고, 회원권 가격 인상 여력도 크다. 주가는 약 1년 만의 첫 큰 조정이며 연초 대비 약 41% 상승한 상태라 단기 이익실현 고려는 가능하나 1~2일 더 지켜본 뒤 약세 시 매수 권고. 비교 사례: 마이크로소프트는 PER 약 27배로 고평가 논란이 있었으나 배당 인상과 400억 달러 규모 자사주 매입 발표로 주가가 상승했다. 웬디스는 20,000명 고용 발표 후 주가가 급락했으나 성장 투자로 보고 매수 기회로 제시. 저평가 업종 경고: 자동차 업체는 파업·전기차 등 구조적 위협, 오프프라이스·온라인에 밀린 오프라인 유통은 대부분 부진, 철강은 관세와 경기 둔화 영향이 있어 싸다고 무조건 살 것이 아니라 최고 품질주의 밸류에이션 일시 조정을 매수 기회로 활용하라는 결론. 기타 언급: 크래프트 하인즈 관련 워런 버핏 가능성 언급, 트리바고·익스피디아, 치폴레(연초 대비 90% 이상 상승) 간략 언급, 최근 세계 원유 공급의 약 5%가 일시적으로 차질을 빚었으나 시장 반응이 미미하다는 점을 다음 주제로 예고.
다듬은 글
le working amer welcome at money welcome to claim Erica I do wanna but educate me jim cramer after fairly sedate day dial dip 52 points hasn't me basically flat fast like advance between oh seven percent I need you to remember something the best stocks they're never cheap they rarely come in and when they do you gotta be ready to pass the good news rarely it's not the same as never every now and then you do get meaningful pull backs and truly high quality stocks the bad news when does pull bucks happen most people tend to be too afraid scared to do any buy and you know what I can't play case in point to the stock of Costco I think the world of Costco I'm a proud Costco member gold star my wife Lisa's an executive club member she Lords her status over me every time I shop there I'm blown away by the low prices in fact I'm a 2-quart kind of shopper the bargains are so great one carts not enough to contain them all we're like a train when we go there we buy Costco's private label products why because they're usually better the naturally branded stuff the place never fails to amaze my trainer Jim and this week he bought a car from Costco they gave him a better deal than anywhere else fish beef crab legs glasses diamond rings Zynga shirts you name it go to Costco but the stock hmm.well stock i've liked it for years but i've always cautioned that it is on the expensive side we used to own Costco the stock for my chapel trust but you know what we sold it we so simply because we had a unity gaining and I didn't want to be greedy well of course everyone has used me remember this balls make money Bears make money but hogs they get slaughtered since then the stocks continued to climb and I've never felt we had a good opportunity to get back in because well I mean you really don't get a lot of downturns here do you today though Costco got hit the first real price break in better part of a year opportunity it's sure felt like an opportunity I'm right until I saw why Costco got hit Bernstein good research firm downgraded the stock from holds no words they missed a lot of the move to sell in a devastating piece that read so regularly there could talk that it could talk even the most optimistic ball out of buying this Costco dip have you had their crab dip anyway listen to this litany of all about Costco first bercy's worried that the company may be approaching peak club counts peak members per Club and peak revenue per member once Costco hits the saturation point those numbers could start to deteriorate second they mentioned a possible downturn catalyst so they never really safe never really spell out what it is Costco does tend to thrive in a weaker economy third potential competition finally they are you Costco's expansion into China may not go as well as many people expect whereas the piece was titled cost remember the symbol co-state cost rational zubrin's downgrading to underperform on valuation your saturation competition and a slow boat to China even worse the bearish logic is all backed up by charts and graphs showing how Costco stock is it so expensive versus historical valuation when pretty much any metric you care name that sounds very rigorous and very scary while the analyst freely admits that he missed the big rally in the stock he doesn't read the top I thought that was very humble of him uh well let's just say his logic sure looks compelling there's just one NCTC Beauty problem with this analysis and make it sounded as though Costco has very little control over its own destiny and that's just not true Costco is a Best of Breed retailer that has repeatedly reinvented itself and they need to reinvent themselves again that's exactly what they'll do as a close follower of the chain I can remember when they initially decided natural-organic was a fad they didn't embrace it big mistake and my management realized it they went all in on that one I guess they arguably have the best selection the world now I can remember when Costco failed to really embrace the Internet it seemed to me that they had contempt for digitalization and they believed somehow believed that they wouldn't lose business to more digital friendly competitors they loved brick-and-mortar when they realized that they got it wrong they pillory and pivoted hard they become one of the best operators in the web some say the old of it omni-channel retail copies but judicious about raising the price of club memberships but if they decide they need to money I bet they could put through some substantial price increases without losing many customers at all I would I don't want to say any customers but many customers oh and as far as the Chinese the Chinese business concern the slow boat to China Costco recently opened a store in Shanghai and it was so swamped with customers that there was barely room to push a cart they actually had to close up early on the first day because they couldn't manage the huge crowds shoppers were literally fighting with each other over rotisserie chickens within days management decided to put up a second one China Shanghai that sure does this you make a troubled cannibalize business to me how about you so what do you do with a stock like this one first you have to accept the Costco's chairs will never be cheap that's why I always tell you to pay up for Best of Breed second I think the bernstein downgrade could prove to be spot on at least for the moment see this stock is up 41% year today so it's theoretically I mean it's not such a bad idea to say well wait a second maybe take a little profit here I'd give it a day or two more to make sure all the weak hands get shaken out after that though I have no doubt that Costco is worth buying into a weakness the stock might look expensive now but it looked expensive five years ago - and it's more than doubled since then that's why I'm unmoved by the valuation argument okay let me give you another example mr.
Softee Microsoft as of yesterday's closed this stock was trading at around 20 seven times earnings it's been years and years since the last time I saw Microsoft trading such an elevated level but if you sold the stock based on the valuation worries will you felt like a dope last night when management gave us a gigantic dividend boost and a forty a billion dollar buyback even though the company's trading down a company oh it rally two dollars and fifty five cents today I'm gonna give you another one that I like their core about it the other Wendy's yeah I love going to witness you know my wife adores the Baconator I mean it's your favorite treat if she's really in a good mood instruct that really hard she has the double bit Kinnear I think Todd Pentagon the CEO is fantastic but the stock recently got hit and I gotta tell you I last night when the viewer called I almost was like how did this happen how could it go down this much so quickly Oh a the caller's name was Phyllis just so you remember I myself just blanked out but Regina Gilligan my incredibly smart executive producer who's got a really smart alpha-1 told me this okay anyway what was Wendy's crime do you remember what Wendy's crime was defender of Phyllis yeah what did Wendy's do wrong it it decided to hire 20,000 people because of breakfast they wanted that take a hit Bernie's so that they can do more business later what kind of countries does you hire 20,000 people and your stock gets clobbered that's wrong good grief you know and it gave you a great aunt Phyllis it gave you a great entry point they're investing in growth for heaven's sake that's what I want look like it was dozens of opportunities bye-bye expensive but high quality stocks in the weakest in each case it's easy to say what the Bernstein analysts said abouts Costco sell sell sell but what's really the alternative here if you hunting for stocks that are cheap they didn't be cheap for good reasons those reasons rarely changed one of the cheapest groups in the margueritte automakers let me ask you do you really want to invest in an ailing industry is facing near-term problems like strikes and large from existential threats like rod sharing what about another group that's the brick-and-mortar retail chains that fail the online or off price test the only way in this group either offer incredible bargains or have incredible digital footprint the rest they've been total dogs I think they're gonna stay that way oh you want cheap how about the steel makers even with the tariffs which is about what you'd expect with a slowing economy the oils bottom line the next time some analysts knocks down a Best of Breed stop with a cogent downgrade that's focused on valuation you need to take advantage of that Best of Breed opportunity weakness and you need to do some buying all right let's take loss let's go to John in California John Jim you know we love you out here in Sacramento tempted P game you're still watching you my man my man Josh my man John I'm in a whole sack though I'm an old sack dough right now mentally okay what we got I noticed my my old buddy Warren Buffett it has a couple more dollars than me I see some news Kraft Heinz is in the news with somebody dumping something you think he'll buy it up or kind of lick his wounds and hang back kind of a worse debris situation there and other than other than Cheez Whiz when I go to Geno's which I'm gonna try to do this weekend there's John there's nothing there let's buy Best of Breed not worse a breed will always make more money all right look versus valuation concerns for Costco the logical it may even be right for the pump but history tells me that the best degree companies don't trade for cheap why should this dip as a buying opportunity not tomorrow let it sit for a couple days but the weekends blow out of it oh man buddy tight it's behind verbo trivago and its namesake Expedia brand I'm taking a trip with the CEO of this Travel Group giant and Chipotle's up over 90% since the start of the year can you still add some spice to your portfolio or have you missed the move I'm getting my take and five percent of the world's oil supply was taken offline earlier this week but the market hardly even seem to notice I'll explain why so stay with clai
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