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happy Mother's Day everybody there's been a lot of confusion over whether the bull market might actually be over or if it's going to be a short cycle or a left translated one or if it's going to go all the way until the end of 2025 well I'm going to tell you what I think about this situation and why I don't actually think it's going to be as short as I previously did right now at the time of recording we've got Bitcoin sitting at about $61,000 still and as I've said in a lot of my PR previous videos I'm really not worried about it and I think we're just consolidating here as long as we stay below the 50-day moving average which if I put it over here on the daily chart you can see it here it is at about $65,000 and I think that whenever we can actually break above that we're probably going to continue out of this pattern right here with that price target of about $100,000 but if we do break down below this red line then it's probably going to be really bearish because this is going to be something really unprecedented I've talked about this a lot in my pre previous videos how some people are thinking that we're going to be seeing a left translated cycle and according to this article on bank.com this theory is basically that Bitcoin is in its final fouryear cycle part of a broader 16-year pattern that new technologies follow this pattern is known as a left translated cycle where the top of the cycle occurs before the midpoint Mark and will usher in an extended bare Market we might have actually already saw that kind of a bare Market because if I actually look here you can see it would top out with a double top with the first Peak being sooner than everybody expected and then the second one probably not going as high as people were expected you might know where I'm going with this because we pretty much saw that same thing happened in the last bull market with Bitcoin topping out a lot earlier than anybody was expecting for the very first Peak and then when we started to go back up again and broke above the previous all-time high people thought that this was the beginning of the real parabolic phase of the bull market but it was actually just the very end and then we saw an extended bare Market longer than most people were expecting but if this is what we saw then I don't think it's following that broader 16-year cycle and if we did top out earlier this time then maybe we're going to see something like that but I'm not really worried about it anyway because as I've told you guys in the past I don't think it's going to be dipping down below the production cost for very long and according to the chart that I have been referencing to by Capriola Investments over here at capriol fund on X if you look at the chart you can basically see that we are at the production cost which is actually the electrical cost which is what I'm referring to on this chart and that's sitting at about $65,100 at the time of recording with us actually just being below that right now and that means that we're probably at a very good buying opportunity to get ready for the next parabolic phase as you can see since the very beginning of this chart which was way back in 2015 the price of Bitcoin has dipped below this red line every now and then but it doesn't go significantly lower than it and usually whenever it's touching it that's a real great opportunity to buy the dip because that usually means that we're going to be going super parabolic shortly after that every time we see a having which is actually these huge spikes that you can see with this red line the production cost doubles and that usually acts as the basement price for the actual price of Bitcoin which is pretty much where we're at right now with the production cost coming up to meet where the price is currently meaning that Bitcoin is currently acting as a beach ball held underwater like a lot of people like to call it and the surface of the water looks to be at about $65,000 so hopefully we're going to go shooting up out of the water way above that price Target here pretty soon and hopefully this is going to be the beginning of the next parabolic phase this is what I expect to happen and I think that this is a great accumulation point but if we do break below this point as I've been saying about $660,000 then we're going to be below significantly below this production cost for the very first time and I really don't know what could happen after that so hopefully we're not going to break down below that and I don't think we will but it's definitely something to keep your eye on but as you can see we've been bouncing off of this parabolic support line right here indicated by this yellow line and if you extend it out following these bottom points then you can see that we're pretty much where the bottom should be right now which is coinciding perfectly with that red line and it looks like a perfect opportunity for us to break out of this bull flag as I said at the bottom of the market right after the FTX collapse these chart patterns are basically showing us that this is the very bottom and we're about to go up but it's really hard to have this conviction whenever everybody is really getting scared and a lot of people are even saying that we're going to be going back down all the way still to like $20,000 or something but here in like the next month or two if we go back and look it's going to be really obvious that this was a great buying opportunity because as I said this is the basically basement for the production cost and we've got this bull flag that's going to be breaking out to the upside and these have like a 7 something per chance of breaking up but also there is this parabolic trend line and all of these things combined are signaling to me that we're probably going to be seeing an imminent breakout here in the next couple of weeks but as I've said we still could continue to trade sideways until we break above that 50-day moving average I actually did previously think that we were probably going to continue this parabolic run and not consolidate here after the having but since we have gone down and sideways I think that this is really a great sign that could send us out until at least the end of the year but I'm still going to be keeping my eye out for what happens with the election because I think that actually Biden is trying to push up the economy right now and pump liquidity into the system so that he can buy votes but I wouldn't be surprised if they would set it up so that the economy will collapse under Donald Trump basically right after he gets elected then they could go and say that the economy was so much better under Biden and all of this stupid stuff but we've also seen Donald Trump say that he would get rid of Jerome Powell if he was elected again and that could mean that we'll see somebody put into the FED that isn't going to actually try to raise interest rates or anything like that but try to stimulate the economy and push assets like crypto and Bitcoin up to the Moon in other words I expect this bull run to go at least until around the time of the election but depending on what happens thereafter and who gets elected that could be what we're actually going to have to look forward to to see how long this bull market is going to go and if it's going to top out at the beginning of the year right after the election or if it might actually go all the way until the end of next year in other news we did get confirmation that JP Morgan apparently does hold shares of several of the spot Bitcoin ETFs as in its May 10th filing with the SEC JP Morgan reported that it held roughly $760,000 worth of shares of BTO ibit uh fbtc and gbtc plus the bitwise bit coin ETF in addition the bank reported 2,021 shares of roughly $47,000 in Bitcoin Depot a crypto ATM provider the SEC filing came the same day as well as Fargo also reported that it had exposure to grayscale and pro shares Bitcoin ETF and its Holdings and Bitcoin Depot Susana International Group reported on May 7th that it bought more than $1 billion worth of shares of the spot crypto ETF in its first quarter of 2024 JP Morgan Chase is the largest bank in the US by assets controlling more than 2.6 trillion and the SEC added that observers should not assume that the information provided by the financial firm was accurate and complete so the SEC basically says that JP Morgan might hold more than they've reported and with them controlling more than $2.6 trillion in assets I think that $760,000 is really small beans and they're probably going to be putting a lot more in this isn't even close to 1% of the assets that they hold and if they even do push up their investment in Bitcoin to 1% of their assets then I think we're going to be seeing more hundreds of billions of dollars pouring in just from JP Morgan alone the irony is palpable though and I've been telling you guys to do what they're actually doing and not what they're saying as JY Diamond has been continuing his attacks against crypto and ramping them up over the past couple of years back in 20177 Jamie Diamond slammed Bitcoin and said it was a fraud saying it was a good option for murderers and drug dealers then in 2023 he said that if he was running the government he would close cryptocurrency down earlier this year he said he doesn't even care about cryptocurrency and he's done talking about it but that was also a lie as he came out just a couple of months later in April saying that Bitcoin is a fraud and there's no hope for Bitcoin as a currency meanwhile JP Morgan and Jamie Diamond are some of the biggest criminals of frauds on the face of this Earth with Jamie Diamond having to pay millions of dollars for manipulating the silver market this guy is an absolute fraud and a joke with JP Morgan actually being listed as an authorized participant for black rocks ETF meaning that they're making all kinds of money from the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency space meanwhile they're trying to keep you out of investing in it because Bitcoin is a direct competitor to what JP Morgan is which is a criminal Enterprise that controls all of our money and tries to keep you under their thumb Bitcoin and cryptocurrency offer you an escape from this financial system and from being under fraudsters like this guy who are keeping your money and just making all kinds of billions of dollars off of it calling you a criminal meanwhile they just pay small ass fines which is just a cost of doing business for a criminal Enterprise I'm sorry I'm kind of ranting a little bit but these guys really piss me off and if anybody has actually listened to Jamie Diamond or JP Morgan then they probably missed out on one of the greatest opportunities to reach Financial Freedom that they're ever going to get anyway I'm going to stop talking about Jamie Diamond before I have a stroke but let me know what you guys think in the comments is Jamie Diamond the real criminal here or is it people like you and me who just want Financial Freedom either way thank you guys so much for watching and don't forget to hit that like And subscribe button if I brought you value but most importantly don't forget to do only good every day and tell your mom happy Mother's day I'll see you guys next time bye
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