저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 1단계 무역합의 기대로 사상최고가 랠리 중이며, 시이겔은 다우 3만 도달 가능성을 열어두지만 상승은 무역합의 진척과 2020년 경기 개선에 달려 있다고 봄. 트리거 및 리스크: 디어(Deere)의 실적 전망 하향과 주가 5% 하락은 산업재 기업들의 해외매출 가시성 부족을 보여주는 경고 신호로 해석됨. 하이일드 채권시장이 주가 신고가를 확인해주지 않는 점도 우려 요인으로 언급됨. 다우 3만 전망: 시이겔은 현재 지수가 3만까지 약 6% 남았다고 보며, 1단계 무역합의와 유럽·신흥국 회복이 이뤄지면 가능하다고 봄. 다만 PER 19배 수준에서 3만(약 20배)을 넘으려면 2020년 강한 경기 확인이 필요하다고 언급. 경기 전망: 미국 경기는 노동시장 등으로 견조하나, 시이겔은 PMI 반등·독일 회복으로 침체 우려가 완화되고 있다고 평가. 기업 매출의 약 40%가 해외에서 나오므로 미국만이 아닌 세계 GDP를 봐야 한다고 주장. 밸류에이션: 버핏지표(윌셔5000/GDP 약 140%대)에 대해 시이겔은 해외매출 비중을 감안하면 과거 기준으로 단순 비교하기 어렵다며 지표의 장기 유효성에 의문을 제기. 무역 시나리오: 시이겔은 1단계 합의 후 한동안 교착(muddle through) 상태가 이어질 경우 추가 상승은 어렵다고 봄. 25% 관세 인상이 현실화되면 증시와 경제 모두에 악영향. 패널 토론: 다른 패널은 1단계 합의 기대가 이미 주가에 반영돼 사상최고가를 형성했다고 보며, 중국이 합의를 부정하지 않는 한 공매도는 위험하다는 입장. 1단계 합의 후 대선 전까지는 추가 합의가 없을 수 있다는 의견도 제시. 출연자 전망: 시이겔은 무역합의 진전 시 다우 3만 가능, 교착 시 상승 제한적이라는 조건부 낙관으로 요약됨.
다듬은 글
socks locking in another round of fresh all-time highs ahead of Thanksgiving but beneath the surface of this record run there is one stock that could be shooting off major warning flares dear tumbling today after the tractor maker cut its forecast citing lingering trade tensions so is Deere telling the true story of what's going on in the market dan listen you know we've been watching a lot of these industrials we know that you know as investors have gotten more excited about the potential for a phase one trade deal there was this rotation in the cyclical but these stocks had already run into it so I think it's really important to think about you know what is this sort of forward visibility these companies have and they don't have much and I would just tell you that any of these industrial companies who get a lot of their sales overseas who tell you otherwise are not being particularly honest about it so you know I think you have to take this move seriously that was down 5% today this is a big industrial stock it's not a nice move but I think you want to kind of keep that sort of lack of visibility in your investment framework as you start thinking about how things play out into 2020 yeah I think it's a cautionary tale there is a lot of optimism built into this market at this point in time and Deere just shows you what happens when all of a sudden the floor drops out on it right so as we go into 2020 you know you talk about can we get these tariffs soft is the trade deal gonna come in are we gonna get some sort of reacceleration in global growth that's what the markets pricing in today and hey listen it could be right but if it's not then you're in for some tough sledding the one place that I would look into 2020 look at the high-yield bond market that is not confirm these new highs that's a concern is there a shot that this was a kitchen sink sort of quarter I mean trade let's throw in trade tensions let's start throw-in Weatherall worse things and the one that set the target spot is a company that addresses the whole again to this and that's the one that's in flux when you start to talk about the trade whether it's going to be phase 1 2 or 3 but it's really hard to sell the market when you know that there's multiple phases that are coming or possibly coming correct so all right let's stick with trade here let's take a look at how things are stacking up in the trade war this is all the recent data from both the US and China you can see the US economy is holding strong backed by a solid labor market while China just handed in a weak batch of economic data are gustas trade is one of the one factor that could add fuel to Wall Street's record rally let's bring in warden finance professor Jeremy Siegel professor great to have you on the show what do you mean I want to start off with your volt prediction of 30,000 on the Dow we like round numbers you do too what kind of time frame are you talking about well don't forget 30,000 is only around 6% away so I mean what that's less here you know half of what we had this year I think it's really I think you know we've been talking about what happened dear the gun certainly on trade trade is the major issue facing the market if we get phase 1 deal if Trump you know normalizes with Europe if we get signed on the Canada Mexico agreement you know 6% seems to be maybe even modest in that case but you know if we get those you know we're not cheap we all know that you know selling for 19 will go another six percent that's that's 20 times earnings so we would have to see you know a good economy next year for us to get much more than that so I see up a pop with a phase 1 deal getting to 30k then it's gonna labor a little bit harder after that what's a good economy in your view is it an economy that's better than what we've seen this year and I'm just trying to I'm just trying to gauge this because you know if if you are banking on a good economy do you think that it's the trade deal will that will make this economy good yeah well it's don't forget it's not just our economy it's also the foreign economies Europe is beginning to look a little bit better a turnaround in the US by the way I was very comforted by the data we got today on durable goods special particularly jobless claims which got me a little bit worried less we've seen the PM eyes turn around that scare that we had a month or two ago is easing it's also easing in Europe because of Germany so people are saying we may have just you don't pass that dip doesn't look like a recession if Europe gets better next year emerging markets improve next year with the SP forty percent plus of their that's come from foreign sales you just can't look at the u.s.
you have to look there I think that's what the market is actually looking at good trends they're a deal on trade with interest with with a ten-year stay in at 170 what's there not to like about equities no that's fair professor Siegel just play devil's advocate you know warren buffett indicator the Wilshire 5000 over GDP a hundred and forty something percent I think he's got a hundred and twenty two billion dollars of cash sitting around the S&P 500 to market market cap over GDPs roughly a hundred and forty eight percent levels that we last saw I don't know nineteen or so years ago are they concerning at all well you know I've always questioned you know I love Warren but I've always questioned that indicator relative to GDP because as I just mentioned forty percent of the profits are from foreign sales so forty percent of their value is world GDP not just US GDP so when you go back in history you know back in 1950 1960 it was a hundred percent 95 percent today it's sixty percent so my feeling is that that is not a good long-term indicator to talk about the valuation of the market professor Siegel it's Brian Kelly so I'm curious is there a period where it's taken too long to get this trade deal done so let's say we're into q3 of next year and we're still talking about phase one when is it too far and when is the damage already done and irreversible well the first thing we can't get the twenty five percent tariffs so I mean if we if we move there it's bad for the market and and bad for the economy I know no phase one is a kind of a muddle through in other words I stand still and if we don't get it with that standstill with that threat of an increase later it's gonna be hard I think to get much of a pop in the market because again we're not selling it a cheap ratio so yeah muddled no agreement muddling through at this level I think progress is gonna be really hard from this level all right professor Siegel great speaking with you have a happy thank you very much professor jeremy duda love the war in school do we have 6% in US on the Dow Jones Industrial Average yeah I think I think of course I think if you have phase one because then you know other phases are more likely to come behind it so I think we definitely we definitely have that we did what cuz everyone said that it was not going to get done everyone said that China could wait us out I think that they have a vested interest in not waiting us out but it's about perception we thought there was gonna be an earnings recession this time around so going into the first quarter of 2020 where is the benchmark where are estimates what is the perception and if we leap over them we go higher if we fall short we're going lower I just push back a little bit about the phase one and then that opens the door for two and three I think that the Chinese obviously have an incentive right now to negotiate a phase one with is little concession is possible on the bigger issues as it relates to buying soybeans or whatever and then they started a B what what I'm saying is but did they though I mean like so I mean I'm just saying but did they and and my point is is that I think you will see a deal in the next few I don't know weeks months or something like that for phase one and then you may not see another deal until after the election is that's much but it also keeps the Bears sort of in the corner because they could come at any moment cuz no one thought phase one was it's only fine Steve if they turn back some of the existing tariffs because some of the existing tariffs have been away at all all-time highs right now phase one half everybody is thinking that phase one's gonna happen and that's why we are at record levels well I let's go back a couple of weeks there were there was no there's no way you could say that every there's no way that anyone was on this desk saying that we thought that phase one was going to get done that was not a unanimous consensus and a whole lot back then now Steve it was it was there was no phases it was a trade deal so then they hacked it okay so phase one we changed it to phase one but you think that is really just not doing new tariffs that's all it is and then China came out and said that there were more positive moving forward and they felt that phase one was going to get done and IP is being discussed this is not talking about just Ag anymore okay well let's see if there's I P ISM everyone said it wasn't gonna get done everyone said the phase one wasn't yet die it's still not done okay okay short the market and we're at all-time highs and that's exactly what happened up it's not hold on you've different views of this but do you both agree that there's a melt up in the market that will continue no I think it's gonna be like that yeah January of 18 once that finally mark it though you can't short the market with this overhang it if it's if it comes out that China says we are not doing any deal permanently then it's a short but until then you're going to stop is keep on your heels and the Bears are going to get run over you
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