저자: Yahoo Finance · 외국인
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나스닥 100 지수가 올해 세 번째로 조정 구간에 들어섰고, 미국 반도체 기업 묶음은 6월 고점 대비 29% 하락했습니다. 아마존과 알파벳은 AI와 클라우드 성장에도 실적이 기대에 못 미쳤으며, 진행자는 그 원인으로 실적보다 대규모 자금 조달 부담을 꼽습니다. 마이크로소프트는 2017년 이후 처음으로 미국에서 250억 달러 규모 채권을 발행했고, 메타는 200억 달러 추가 발행을 검토 중입니다. 오라클은 채권과 주식을 함께 판매했습니다. 미국 내 발행이 부담이 되자 알파벳의 유로화 채권, 앤트로픽의 일본 투자자 협상 등 해외 자금 조달이 늘고 있습니다. 블랙스톤의 발언을 인용해 AI 투자 기회에 대한 시각 차이도 함께 다룹니다.
다듬은 글
Now let's look at what we've seen in the market over the last week, just this red color last week. Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 index entered the correction zone for the third time this year . I did the calculations. American chipmakers , this group of stocks, fell on Monday, losing 29% from their June high.
Chip manufacturers in the US. American chip manufacturers, chip manufacturers in the USA. OK. They are still in the black for the year. Let's be frank. It's been a crazy year for some of these stocks. But here's what Al Ruth from Barron's points out, he talked about it on our show, as did some others .
You look at the numbers that came from Amazon, from Alphabet, from...well, Microsoft was kind of an exception because they were rewarded. But here's Amazon and Alphabet , in particular. The numbers were not bad. AWS' AI business is expected to grow by 40% in 2027 and 2028. This is happening at Amazon, at Alphabet, AI is gaining momentum, and cloud services are becoming more popular.
And that simply wasn't enough. This simply wasn't enough. So, I think I'll borrow from my friend Connor Sen at Peachtree Creek Investments, who, even before the hyperscalers and the Magic Seven reported earnings, said, "I think the big news of the earnings season for this group will not be their results, but the amount they're asking investors for." This will concern the issuance of securities, and it seems to be confirmed so far , and...
Absolutely. To me, that means too much of a good thing is also not a good thing, right ? You can't eat donuts forever and stay healthy. Even on a diet consisting only of meat, you are unlikely to remain very healthy for long. So we've been getting a steady stream of AI-related offerings, both in the bond market and the stock market.
And it's no surprise to me that the best period for hyperscalers this year was that spike in April, when everything went up after the initial round of truces. And then in September, which is historically a month of high issuance, there was no investment-grade bond issuance from the Magic Seven hyperscalers.
You know, to me it meant, "Okay, their spreads have calmed down, nothing's happening." The bond market was no longer as aggressive as it was in late July. And now , if you look at the situation as a whole, again, Microsoft is the only company that stands out. She, you know, is both the one who was rewarded and the one whose free cash flow doesn't become negative.
All other hyperscalers have now seen long-term bond spreads widen to new highs. But if you look at the big picture, I think it's the price of admission , right? With this AI boom and, as you rightly noted, this is the third time this year. So, this is what you get when you buy a ticket. I would say that this time the situation looks different, because for the first time in the entire AI boom, we are seeing lower highs and lower lows in many market segments.
So if you've been investing in these assets, you know , partly smartly, partly thoughtlessly, like "I see the order books growing , but the chart is also creeping up and to the right." Well, now you need a new thesis. A new thesis often requires a new cohort of investors. I truly believe that many of these groups, especially in the microchip industry, are now wandering in the dark until all those who owned them through the “up and right graph” disappear and are replaced by people with a firm belief that the longevity of the AI boom has so far been underestimated , perhaps by a year.
But it is precisely this change of investors, in my opinion, that this group needs to confidently get back on its feet. I want to expand on your point about bonds , because it's a very valid point. Here are some recent numbers: Microsoft issued $25 billion in bonds last Thursday. This is her first offer in the US since 2017.
Meta is considering issuing another $20 billion in various currencies. Oracle sold $10 billion in bonds and another $9.9 billion in shares yesterday. Alphabet—$6 billion tranche in euros. In September, we benefited because they did not issue new bonds. But there's something else I'm keeping an eye on .
A huge number of investment-grade issues were made in the US. They currently account for a not-so-huge, but fairly significant, share of all investment-grade issuance in the US. But increasingly, you see them entering foreign markets. Alphabet enters the euro market. You know, Anthropic is in talks with Japanese investors.
Oracle began looking at overseas markets. Meta issues bonds in various currencies. It seems like we're trying to dig everything out from under the couch, saying that if we can't get money in the US, where else can we get it, because we still need it ? I think that's one aspect, but there's another: these are huge multinational corporations that in many cases have expenses denominated in other currencies.
I know that Google has a significant and growing share of data centers abroad, particularly in Europe. So, I think there are different explanations for this , but, you know, aren't we looking for more and more new sources of funding for the AI boom? Of course, everyone is reaching out—from some suppliers and customers to foreign investors at this stage.
So it really seems like we are reaching a point where it is not just the cost of capital that is the issue, but also its availability. That was the general opinion. On the other hand , you read Blackstone's earnings report and you see Steve Schwartzman say: this is the best opportunity we've ever seen.
If no one else wants to, we will invest significantly more capital in it. So, it seems that in many cases the rhetoric simply follows the dynamics of spreads, but in others—the combination of demand news, which is not always purely positive , and stock charts showing lower highs and lows, really matters. This in itself will force a change in the nature of the conversation.
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